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Old 06-17-2021, 10:23 AM   #1
OverlayHunter
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Aidan O'Brien

I've played a few races at Royal Ascot (not the 30 horse fields!). The Brisnet PP's have a statistic for Aiden O'Brien which I find difficult to believe. I don't follow European racing but they show him as having only 3% graded stakes wins. Could that be possible?
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Old 06-17-2021, 12:49 PM   #2
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I should have mentioned that the 3% graded stakes wins was based on 62 starts.

His turf record is similar - 60 starts, 3% wins.

I've always thought of him as one of the better trainers so these numbers don't make sense to me.
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Old 06-17-2021, 01:22 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by OverlayHunter View Post
I should have mentioned that the 3% graded stakes wins was based on 62 starts.

His turf record is similar - 60 starts, 3% wins.

I've always thought of him as one of the better trainers so these numbers don't make sense to me.

Those stats are when he ships to the US.
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Old 06-17-2021, 01:37 PM   #4
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Here's what I have in my current database for trainer OBRIEN AIDAN P in North America from 05-01-2018 through yesterday 06-16-2021:

Code:
query start:         6/17/2021 10:06:08 AM
query end:           6/17/2021 10:06:08 AM
elapsed time:        0 seconds

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE TRAINER='OBRIEN AIDAN P' 
      AND [DATE] >= #05-01-2018# 
      AND [DATE] <= #06-16-2021# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      171.20        189.90        160.40
Bet               -136.00       -136.00       -136.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                 35.20         53.90         24.40

Wins                    2            14            22
Plays                  68            68            68
PCT                 .0294         .2059         .3235

ROI                1.2588        1.3963        1.1794
Avg Mut             85.60         13.56          7.29
Code:
By: ClassDescriptor

Value   P/L     Bet     Roi Wins  Plays     Pct   Impact   AvgMut
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11   -12.00   12.00  0.0000    0      6   .0000   0.0000     0.00  N  (Non Graded Stakes)
12   -10.00   10.00  0.0000    0      5   .0000   0.0000     0.00  G3 (Grade 3 Stakes)
13    -6.00    6.00  0.0000    0      3   .0000   0.0000     0.00  G2 (Grade 2 Stakes)
14    63.20  108.00  1.5852    2     54   .0370   1.2593    85.60  G1 (Grade 1 Stakes)
You're right. Much lower win pct than I would have expected.

The big + roi comes from ORDER OF AUSTRALIA who won a BC race and paid $148.40 to win.

Somewhere on an external hard drive I have a separate BC database spanning years 2009-2018. I recall Obrien having a win rate of about 12% in BC races (both Fri and Sat.) If you're interested I could pull that database off the external drive, update it for years 2019 and 2020 - and post his BC numbers.

-jp

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Old 06-17-2021, 02:16 PM   #5
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Jeff and Gamlin', thank you for the replies. I had considered that it might only be his U.S. record but that still seemed quite a lot lower than I would have expected.

Jeff, no need to dig for those stats for me but I appreciate the offer. Thank you.
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Old 06-18-2021, 04:35 PM   #6
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https://www.racingandsports.com/thor...p-obrien-14162

OverlayHunter:

Here is a detailed page about Aiden O'Brien if you wanted to compare his Ireland stats to US racing or any other statistic

Enjoy!
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Old 06-18-2021, 07:30 PM   #7
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Well, CheckMark, that is about everything you can think of relating to O'Brien. Great resource. Thank you.
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Old 06-18-2021, 08:54 PM   #8
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Well, CheckMark, that is about everything you can think of relating to O'Brien. Great resource. Thank you.
No problem!

A great resource indeed!
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Old 07-10-2021, 05:17 PM   #9
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So much for that lousy win % here in Stakes races
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Old 07-10-2021, 05:32 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by OverlayHunter View Post
I should have mentioned that the 3% graded stakes wins was based on 62 starts.

His turf record is similar - 60 starts, 3% wins.

I've always thought of him as one of the better trainers so these numbers don't make sense to me.
To be fair, other than the BC and even then it is debatable, he was sending over his third string for many of those races.
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Old 07-10-2021, 06:46 PM   #11
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He rarely sends his best over, just the ones that can't do it against the best open company in Europe so might as well try to pick up cheap blacktype because a US G1 and a UK G1 looks the same in the pedigree book.
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Old 07-11-2021, 10:04 AM   #12
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cj and Onesome, thank you for the insights.

Onesome, if I am understanding your point, it appears that you believe the British and French graded stakes are generally stronger than the US races. Would you say that a US grade one was comparable to a European grade two?

Given O'Brien's lack of US success and the cost of shipping and other related costs, his "ducking" the best of Europe seems to not be working out so well.
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Old 07-11-2021, 10:47 PM   #13
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Order of Australia was just a winner until the BC Mile last November, hasn't done a thing since, how much do you think his bloodstock value went up with that win? surely 7 figures, maybe 8 figures?

That easily pays for the other flops and it's not like some might not be subsidized by the BC or shared among the euro team that comes over.

Think anything good would be sent to Australia but with the new rules limiting flyins in wake of all the breakdowns during the Carnival and Cup itself that might change.
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Old 07-12-2021, 09:17 AM   #14
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I think his poor record in the US in recent years was probably being overweighted by handicappers. He's a great trainer that has no problem shipping around anywhere else in the world. The stat was/is probably mostly noise. That's one of the tricky parts about trainer stats. The samples are so small it's hard to distinguish between noise and relevance. Even if you find relevance, trainers and their stock change over time. The one thing that doesn't change much is that when a great trainer is handling a good horse horse, it's way more likely to run it's "A" race or improve further than for the average trainer or worse. It may be hard to find value because their horses get bet heavier, but the extra money is appropriate.
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Old 07-12-2021, 12:23 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think his poor record in the US in recent years was probably being overweighted by handicappers. He's a great trainer that has no problem shipping around anywhere else in the world. The stat was/is probably mostly noise. That's one of the tricky parts about trainer stats. The samples are so small it's hard to distinguish between noise and relevance. Even if you find relevance, trainers and their stock change over time. The one thing that doesn't change much is that when a great trainer is handling a good horse horse, it's way more likely to run it's "A" race or improve further than for the average trainer or worse. It may be hard to find value because their horses get bet heavier, but the extra money is appropriate.
How overweighed could it have been? They both went off at even money.
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