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Old 11-13-2019, 05:05 PM   #1
1ejp
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Final selection

After handicapping a race I often find 2 or 3 horses to make a case for. I have paired it down to 1 by class,speed,form, connections etc...
I sometimes just bet the horse with the highest odds or bet an exacta/triple.

How do you make your final decision?
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Old 11-13-2019, 08:47 PM   #2
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Usually woefully.
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Old 11-13-2019, 11:56 PM   #3
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My methodology assigns a fair-odds figure to each horse in a race reflecting its true chance of winning, rather than narrowing a race field down by applying a series of elimination criteria. (That way, I make sure that I don't overlook any horse.) I then look for the horse with actual odds that compare most favorably with the fair odds that I have assigned to it (that is, the greatest overlay). However, I try to avoid horses (even if overlaid) that have received a rating in any of the handicapping categories in my methodology (reflecting running style, speed, condition, class, jockey, and post position) that is so low that it represents an independent variable that by itself adversely affects the horse's probability of winning.

Last edited by Overlay; 11-14-2019 at 12:07 AM. Reason: Greater accuracy
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Old 11-14-2019, 12:43 AM   #4
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If before the race, I already know what excuse I'm going to use if it loses, I toss it. In a perfect world, I would only bet on a horse that, if it loses, I won't know what to blame it on.
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Old 11-14-2019, 12:55 AM   #5
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I bet only when I think that the favorite will lose...because I know that if the favorite loses, then no matter which of the other horses I happen to bet on, I can't help but place myself in a long-term profitable wagering situation. And I know this because Dick Mitchell told me so.
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:15 AM   #6
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If I get the race down to 3 horses, I will usually bet the two longest odds.
If one of my final three is 9-2 or higher, I may go 1 unit win and 3 units place on that one.

Sometimes I will just box the three - if the race is "cloudy - ie, none of the three stand out over the others and the payoffs "feel" right.

Real hi-tech!
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Old 11-14-2019, 11:05 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I bet only when I think that the favorite will lose...because I know that if the favorite loses, then no matter which of the other horses I happen to bet on, I can't help but place myself in a long-term profitable wagering situation. And I know this because Dick Mitchell told me so.
I think that's by far the best approach to finding value except for one.

Occasionally, you find a race where you think the favorite is "suspect" and you also have a horse (or even 2) you think are better than they look on paper and would probably represent value on their own even if there wasn't an overbet favorite in the race.

Either one of those conditions alone gets you into the ballpark or perhaps puts you over the top depending on how good you are at identifying flawed and underappreciated horses, but if you have both in the same race it gets harder to be "that" wrong on both sides of the play even with our own occasional mistakes and misunderstandings. Unfortunately, those races don't grow on trees,
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Old 11-14-2019, 11:26 AM   #8
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I don't play races the way I used to.

Now I more or less start by scanning the field to see if there are any horses in the race I think are better or worse than the public is likely to think they are. If there is one, then I start looking at the other horses in the race trying to figure out if there's a way to construct profitable combinations with that horse given his chances of winning.

Let's say I have some hidden trip on a horse and think he's likely to go off longer than he should. If I look at the rest of the horses and decide he's only the 3rd most likely winner, I can still construct wagers I feel good about as long as I am correct about the price and he's 15-1 (as an example). I may play exactas, triples, and even supers keying him in various slots. They just won't be as heavily weighted to him winning as they would be if I thought he was best horse in the race.

I'm more or less trying to match my "value" assessment of the race to my "probability" assessment of the race and create all long term EV+ combinations.
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Old 11-14-2019, 02:57 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by 1ejp View Post
After handicapping a race I often find 2 or 3 horses to make a case for. I have paired it down to 1 by class,speed,form, connections etc...
I sometimes just bet the horse with the highest odds or bet an exacta/triple.

How do you make your final decision?
If it's so close you can separate them and you feel compelled to play the race, I would lean towards the one with the highest odds.

However, if it's that tight, you may want to ask yourself whether the reason you can't separate them is that you don't understand all the issues very well or because the horses are really that close. You should probably prefer a race where you have a stronger opinion and you are getting the price you want over one where you are a little confused about some of the issues.
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Old 11-14-2019, 04:41 PM   #10
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“You should probably prefer a race where you have a stronger opinion and you are getting the price you want over one where you are a little confused about some of the issues.”

This!
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Old 11-14-2019, 04:48 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
You should probably prefer a race where you have a stronger opinion and you are getting the price you want over one where you are a little confused about some of the issues.
The problem, of course, is that the "price we want" is usually found in the confusing races...while our "stronger opinions" usually land us squarely on the favorite.
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Old 11-14-2019, 05:49 PM   #12
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The problem, of course, is that the "price we want" is usually found in the confusing races...while our "stronger opinions" usually land us squarely on the favorite.
Absolutely true. I am so tired of putting in the work, coming up with 2/3 logical value horses and choosing the wrong one. I feel like I’m taking a stab at the race. I might as well play names and numbers.
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Old 11-15-2019, 09:41 AM   #13
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The problem, of course, is that the "price we want" is usually found in the confusing races...while our "stronger opinions" usually land us squarely on the favorite.
I know exactly where you are coming from on this and agree, but I think that depends on how you think about the races.

If I look at a race and feel certain the 5th choice is underrated and is probably the 2nd or 3rd most likely winner and I have good line on all the issues that tend to confuse me (like layoffs, surface switches, a horse coming off a bad race on a very off track it usually handles, whether there is a bias and will the riders adjust..) that's a strong opinion on which to construct some kind of bet.

If I really dislike the favorite and feel totally confused about the rest of the race, I've been known to bet 2 or even 3 horses to win.

It's when I feel like I have no strong opinion on how well several key horses are likely to run today that I personally feel lost.
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Old 11-15-2019, 11:40 AM   #14
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The only opinion that really matters is the one that bets a few second after the gate opens. Up until the 1st quarter time is posted, you really have no idea in
this game anymore.

It is not a game for the general public.
Join the happy crowd, go to the casinos and forget about the racing.
Tracks don't really care about you anyway.
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Old 11-15-2019, 08:51 PM   #15
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I know exactly where you are coming from on this and agree, but I think that depends on how you think about the races.

If I look at a race and feel certain the 5th choice is underrated and is probably the 2nd or 3rd most likely winner and I have good line on all the issues that tend to confuse me (like layoffs, surface switches, a horse coming off a bad race on a very off track it usually handles, whether there is a bias and will the riders adjust..) that's a strong opinion on which to construct some kind of bet.

If I really dislike the favorite and feel totally confused about the rest of the race, I've been known to bet 2 or even 3 horses to win.

It's when I feel like I have no strong opinion on how well several key horses are likely to run today that I personally feel lost.
"Some kind of bet", you say....and yet you call this a "strong opinion". When the 5th betting choice on the board looks 3rd best to you...what type of bet would you contemplate making? And, if you decide on a win-bet...would you bet the same amount as you would if the horse was your top handicapping choice in the race? The 3rd-best horse would demand a reduction in the bet sizing...NO?
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