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Old 03-21-2018, 01:28 PM   #166
cj
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Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
This same pattern (not the horse coming down part but the money coming off a 1/9 or 1/5 shot so that it ends up at 3/5 or 4/5 part) has been repeated hundreds of times over the past 4 or 5 years - mostly at tracks with smallish pools. Maybe it's been going on at tracks with large pools too - but harder to spot when the pools are bigger.

I suspect the player or group who made the initial bets that put the horse at 1/9 going to the gate were employing a strategy that goes something like this:

Bet so much on the horse that it becomes patently unattractive to players like you and I from a risk vs. reward standpoint. The idea being to persuade players like you and I to not bet their horse - and maybe take a small stab on one of the other horses.

Cancel (a big part) of their bets right before the race off or shortly after if betting where a cancel delay is offered.

If I can make an educated guess: They have a pretty good idea what final pool size will be after they cancel. They have a pretty good idea what final odds will be after they cancel. They have a pretty good idea what their edge will be given final pool size and final odds after they cancel.

If the type of strategy described above enables them to accomplish most of that:

From a Kelly perspective, I suspect they have a pretty good idea how much better off they are in terms of maximizing their edge vs. using a "normal betting strategy" where players like you and I are more likely to bet money on their horse.

All of that said, I think the incident you described yesterday Tues 03-20-2018 at WRD involved the #4 horse in R6... which according to the chart took place inside the eighth pole.

If they are now canceling after seeing an incident that occurs in mid stretch likely to make their number come down:

THAT'S a huge can of worms -- one I haven't seen before!


-jp

.
This is a strategy. I remember a big bettor, Ernie Dahlman maybe but don't quote me, saying he would bet horses he really liked early to to discourage others from betting the horse at smaller pool tracks. The difference is he had no intention of canceling the bet.

Those cancels should not be allowed. We've been down this road many times before. It is pool manipulation plain and simple. I doubt it had anything to do with something seen during the race.

Last edited by cj; 03-21-2018 at 01:29 PM.
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Old 03-21-2018, 07:52 PM   #167
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If you are watching a race live, you pretty much know what price you're going to be getting as the clock goes from 1mtp to 0mtp and beyond...not exactly of course, but you pretty much know where it's heading from there...and if you don't, you haven't been watching races for very long.
We have a whole thread dedicated to odds changes during a race and you are still saying that?

Im sorry but when it comes to handicapping, I only want to consider the horses in relation to fixed odds, the same that sport bettors only need to consider the sport.

Guessing a payout on a win is not what I think should be part of this game. You really think it should be?
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Old 03-22-2018, 02:20 AM   #168
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IMO...it's no longer possible to regularly predict the closing odds of these horses with any noticeable degree of accuracy. And I've been watching races on a daily basis since 1981.
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Old 03-22-2018, 10:17 AM   #169
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IMO...it's no longer possible to regularly predict the closing odds of these horses with any noticeable degree of accuracy. And I've been watching races on a daily basis since 1981.
Yeah so with all respect,I dont understand what pace is saying.
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Old 03-23-2018, 12:33 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by cutchemist42 View Post
Yeah so with all respect,I dont understand what pace is saying.
You can better predict the closing odds based on DD and P3 payoffs than using the tote board alone. But with the accuracy people are hoping to find? Not likely.
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Old 04-16-2018, 04:41 PM   #171
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William Hill Expansion

https://www.thelines.com/tropicana-w...ports-betting/
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Old 04-25-2018, 09:16 AM   #172
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If the racinos didn't work for most tracks, why should sports betting?
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Old 04-25-2018, 09:36 AM   #173
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i know that in Nevada the odds for all the 100 William Hill locations are all the same. they all change at the same time and they offer small limits on their wagering.

i wonder if by chance sports gambling becomes legal outside of Nevada if Hill will link the odds together like he does in Nevada? if he does then sports gambling will be another waste of time here with those small limits.
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Old 04-26-2018, 02:38 PM   #174
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William Hill seems to take a bath on some major losses according to their own twitter page. Race books are way too small as well.
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Old 04-27-2018, 06:45 AM   #175
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If the racinos didn't work for most tracks, why should sports betting?
Works quite fine in the uk, how it will work in the us is the great unknown.

People are used to it in the uk, as the sports book at the tracks take lots of bets.

In the us where most bettors have never bet sports legally is a huge question.

There is a difference between sports betting and slot machines.

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