HONG KONG – SHA TIN SAT-4/17

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE---R#9- 1200M C2 (6F)D……5-4-3 W/ 1-6-8

2-11-4-7– Dutch LOSS 60% Profit Margin - PLAYED / Not much late action on the LS Winner #2 /

[Nitro]

UPDATE---R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T…… 1-4-5 W/ 3-8-6

[Hypnotist1]

Race 10 Pass Chaos

Open Favorite 1 is weak

6 Live long shot

Chaos PASS

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE---R#10-1400M C3 (7F)T…… 1-4-5 W/ 3-8-6

8-1-7-9– Dutch LOSS 58% Profit Margin - PLAYED / $40.30 Quinella /
#1 was so weak that it finished a strong 2nd getting solid betting throughout the betting cycle for a nice Quinella!

[Hypnotist1]

Nitro

Race 8 you have 7 as your 2nd pick

I said 7 was DEAD and he was and finished 7th of 14 great 2nd pick

Race 10 I said 1 was WEAK He lost by 3 lenghts

I DIDNT SAY DEAD Weak means not a prime win horse

Races 7 and 8 MY TOP PICK WON BOTH NOT FAVORITES

YOUR PICKS WERE 3rd and 5th.

Good luck

[Nitro]

O.A. Results from 10 races posted:

KEY CHOICE WINNERS – 4
WINNERS FROM BOTTOM 3 choices – 3
DUTCH PLAYS W/WINS OVER 50% PROFIT MARGIN- 3 for 8
QUINELLAS – 7 W/ KEY CHOICE (AVG RETURN - $57.80)
TRIPLES – 3
(QUARTETS) SUPERS – 1

Although there were many O.A. Winners posted nearly half of them were not part of the top 3 Key selections.
That caused for poor showing on the O.A Dutch Win betting results.
But take the 3 Dirt races out of the picture and it’s a much better result (3 for 5). So, why discard them? Well because it had been raining all day in HK and from past experience a “good” dirt track plays a lot different than one’s that’s listed as “fast”. Obviously the bettors were struggling with those races. When they do it's reflects immediately in the tote analysis.

The big savers were certainly the Quinellas and Triples that produced some great value.
Quinellas - $148.40 – $12.70 – $53.00 – $35.90 – $67.50 – $47.00 – $40.30

All of these results in spite of all the disingenuous and befuddling comments from another member who claims to use some sort of tote analysis. I won’t go into any details because those posts speak for themselves.
I will only say that it’s fairly obvious that his SELF-interest is trying to prove something related to posting just Winners (after the race is over no less) and nothing to do with making money. He apparently has completely ignored my opening post on more than one occasion which outlines my betting intentions and propositions when using my posted selection format.
Too bad because I never search for just Winners. I'm out for Winning Plays with one goal in mind!
.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Hypnotist1

Race 10 Pass Chaos

Open Favorite 1 is weak

6 Live long shot

Chaos PASS

Can you give your definition of weak favorite, and Live long shot? I'm fairly familiar with dead on the board, but not sure how you're defining the other two categories.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

Can you give your definition of weak favorite, and Live long shot? I'm fairly familiar with dead on the board, but not sure how you're defining the other two categories.

Determining a “Live Long Shot” or an entry considered “Dead on the Board” are both misnomers from the perspective of the casual tote board observer. That’s because it’s impossible for any individual to monitor all the pools simultaneously that illustrate the flow of money which inevitably results in providing specific betting patterns. Most of these simple observations are limited to either watching the odds (the Win pool only) or the Will Pays (Exacta or Quinella Pools).

From the analysis standpoint however it becomes a much clearer picture when comparing the generated entry values in combination with the PAR value from one betting interval to the next.
The #1 entry (@ 4.4/1) was certainly NOT dead on the board as the 2nd betting choice and finished 2nd!
The #8 entry (@ 7.7/1) also got solid action, but faded slightly by post time, yet finished 1st.
The #7 entry (@ 24/1) received marginal action, but did take a bit of late action by post time and finished 3rd.
The #9 entry (@ 142/1) did not get much early or late play, yet managed to finish 4th.

TOTE ANALYSIS for HK Sha Tin Race # 10 – (See Results & Comments in earlier posts above)

Entries w/Computed Values closest to PAR are always of interest –
The PAR value is based on all the combined monies in the Win, Place & Quinella pools)

PK	F		0m	3m	7m	12m	ENT#
1	2	 	344	283	270	257	1
 	 	 	618	545	533	527	2
4	 	 	321	314	314	296	3
2	 	 	332	254	260	270	4
3	 	 	414	334	313	304	5
6	 	 	387	352	347	350	6
 	3	 	420	466	450	446	7
5	1	 	363	317	318	324	8
 	4	 	601	552	544	532	9
 	 	 	489	406	401	387	10
 	 	 	413	449	394	393	11
	 	 	506	400	390	369	12
 	 	 	667	658	680	710	13
 	 	 	589	567	579	585	14
 	 	 	378	333	325	321	PAR


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