Timeformus Pace Projector - Glorious Empire

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

The horse was an over-bet underlay at 7-1.....Go figure how that happened in a field that size.

It’s not difficult to figure out when there’s money involved. Keep in mind that the betting population consists of more than just handicappers reading and relying on PP data.

Sometimes when those closer to the horse (than those reading an obscure pace projector) realize that their animal is in great shape, they will intentionally send it in. That's a much more powerful (Insider) indicator than any subjective assumption made that’s based a some PP’s.

[Suff]

Trainer James Lawrence reported Glorious Empire returned to his home base at the Fair Hill Training Center early Monday morning in “great shape” following his impressive, wire-to-wire win in Saturday’s Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale at Gulfstream Park and that the thought, at the moment, is to bring him back here for the $7 million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational on Jan. 26.

Faltered, Eased, Walked Off in last race.

Then the race of his life last Saturday.

He walked off before too...Sept 17th @ Laurel, going a mile. He came back from that with an 87 beyer.

The soft turf races are highlighted in the image. I was nowhere on the Horse.... so when he hit the 1/16th pole clear by lengths, I opened my app and requested my car be brought up from the Valet.

[cj]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Thank you CJ for your replies.

With regard to Glorious Empire, the gelding showed an 83 for TFUS Early in the DRF on Sat Dec 15 edition. His race 2 back in the Sword Dancer was a career top performance with a Beyer of 106.

Do you have access to what his TFUS Early number was prior to running in the Sword Dancer...?

I was under the impression that the Early numbers were based on a number of factors but that most if not all of his prior pace numbers were synthesized to arrive at his latest Early number of 83. If is this is the case, shouldn’t his Early number been higher...?

As it was presented, the 83 seems to demonstrate a preponderance of weighting given to the runners’ last race, which was slow pace-wise.

Also, does the Early TFUS in 1.5 mile turf events extend to 3/4 of a mile call, or is it at the 1/2 mile point like in other shorter routes...?

These should answer your questions. If not I'll try again.

https://timeformusblog.com/2018/01/3...-pace-figures/

https://www.drf.com/news/qa-timeform...e-pace-ratings

https://www.drf.com/news/timeformus-...drf-formulator

[Tom]

You have to factor in the jockey as well.
Many jockeys have a , uh, tendency to not let a horse run early.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Tom

You have to factor in the jockey as well.
Many jockeys have a , uh, tendency to not let a horse run early.

Absolutely, and it works both ways. How about when a horse picks up an aggressive rider, especially when it has recently been ridden by unaggressive ones.

The pace projector is a short cut to telling you some of the questions you need to be asking. It also exposes the incredible idiocy of that pace thing DRF unfortunately still hasn't removed from the pps.

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Absolutely, and it works both ways. How about when a horse picks up an aggressive rider, especially when it has recently been ridden by unaggressive ones.

The pace projector is a short cut to telling you some of the questions you need to be asking. It also exposes the incredible idiocy of that pace thing DRF unfortunately still hasn't removed from the pps.

This is actually something we are looking at adding, but will have to be something we can verify is an upgrade to what we currently have. In theory it should be, but doesn't always work out that way.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

This is actually something we are looking at adding, but will have to be something we can verify is an upgrade to what we currently have. In theory it should be, but doesn't always work out that way.

I wouldn't add it, because it is too subjective.

[cj]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I wouldn't add it, because it is too subjective.

Yep, that is the worry and what I expect to find actually. Jockeys have tendencies, but applying it to every horse they ride (even if by distance/surface) would probably hurt more than help.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

Yep, that is the worry and what I expect to find actually. Jockeys have tendencies, but applying it to every horse they ride (even if by distance/surface) would probably hurt more than help.

Right. You are never going to make it super accurate, but it helps paint the picture.

[VigorsTheGrey]

How does the pace projector handle runners whose Early and Late number are close to each other...say 75/78, 82/ 85, 89/ 93...?

I struggle evaluating these runners...mainly I use to TFUS Early / Late Numbers to spot wire-job candidates, or deep closers to act as suck-ups late...I tend to completely overlook the runners with close TFUS...sometimes I find a horse with BOTH Early and Late being higher than the rest, which I consider an exceptionally good bet...

I read that the numbers are not meant to be added together, but is there any evidence that these middle twin figure runners will do anything else than run and finish mid-pack most of the time..?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

The pace projector is a short cut to telling you some of the questions you need to be asking. It also exposes the incredible idiocy of that pace thing DRF unfortunately still hasn't removed from the pps.

The unfortunate aspect of the race flow product in the DRF is that it wasn't explained and marketed properly to begin with so people like you still have no idea what it is, how to use it, or why it's an extraordinary compliment to fractional analysis. That capped any effort to continue developing it further for public consumption.

Fortunately, that development continued privately according to Kenny's original spec and the additional inights gained from testing.

I can tell you with 100% certainty it's better than anything in the puiblic domain at pre/post race race flow analysis and identying horses than are better than they look on paper or that have an especially good setup today.

Now it will never come public and handicappers will continue to be ridiculously wrong about some aspects of pace and never get the more refined data and understanding that prove it.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

How does the pace projector handle runners whose Early and Late number are close to each other...say 75/78, 82/ 85, 89/ 93...?

I struggle evaluating these runners...mainly I use to TFUS Early / Late Numbers to spot wire-job candidates, or deep closers to act as suck-ups late...I tend to completely overlook the runners with close TFUS...sometimes I find a horse with BOTH Early and Late being higher than the rest, which I consider an exceptionally good bet...

I read that the numbers are not meant to be added together, but is there any evidence that these middle twin figure runners will do anything else than run and finish mid-pack most of the time..?

If the speed is suspect, I have found that these kinds of numbers are what to look for in elongated sprints. 6 1/2 or 7f.

[cj]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

How does the pace projector handle runners whose Early and Late number are close to each other...say 75/78, 82/ 85, 89/ 93...?

I struggle evaluating these runners...mainly I use to TFUS Early / Late Numbers to spot wire-job candidates, or deep closers to act as suck-ups late...I tend to completely overlook the runners with close TFUS...sometimes I find a horse with BOTH Early and Late being higher than the rest, which I consider an exceptionally good bet...

I read that the numbers are not meant to be added together, but is there any evidence that these middle twin figure runners will do anything else than run and finish mid-pack most of the time..?

The Pace Projector is strictly early ratings. Late has nothing to do with what you see.

As for the midpack horses, I wouldn't dismiss them as contenders unless their speed figures also say they have little chance.

[headhawg]

Why not just sell it as a product, something like what Progressive Handicapping does with their sire ratings? There could be an annual jockey riding tendency book and then maybe an additional online service (weekly? monthly?) to keep up with any trends and new riders. The riding tendencies could include an expert's (subjective) interpretation/evaluation, and that could be coupled with raw data broken out by track, distance, surface, etc.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

The pace projector is a short cut to telling you some of the questions you need to be asking. It also exposes the incredible idiocy of that pace thing DRF unfortunately still hasn't removed from the pps.

The unfortunate aspect of the race flow product in the DRF is that it wasn't explained and marketed properly to begin with so people like you still have no idea what it is, how to use it, where it was going, or why it's an extraordinary compliment to fractional analysis. That capped any effort to continue developing it further for public consumption.

Fortunately, that development continued privately according to Kenny's original spec and the additional inights gained from testing.

I can tell you with 100% certainty in it's present form it's better than anything in the puiblic domain at pre/post race race flow analysis and identying horses than are better than they look on paper or that have an especially good setup today.

Now it will never come public and handicappers will continue to be ridiculously wrong about some aspects of pace, some races, and never get the more refined data and understanding that prove it. Only a few people have access to it.