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Old 12-14-2018, 05:58 PM   #76
Ocala Mike
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Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike View Post

The stock market may know more than we think.
Down 10% since Oct. 3rd. (the Dow - many stocks have fallen much more).
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Old 12-14-2018, 06:09 PM   #77
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Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike View Post
You believe Trump belongs on Mt Rushmore and you tell me to "stop talking stupid?" To quote Bob Novak, delicious.
Speaking of delicious, are you implying that all what the USA has accomplished since Trump's election -- much higher GDP growth; much lower unemployment; higher participation rate; reversing one-sided trade deals that cost this country 100s of billions of annual deficits; negotiating and receiving concessions and lowered tariffs from China, Canada, Mexico, Japan and EU that benefit our manufacturers and other exporters, plus record high equity levels in the stock market, higher levels of consumer confidence, lower tax rates and more ... are you really saying that all this would have also happened under a Hillary! Jeb! Rubio Bernie presidency??

All this economic growth and success in this country belongs solely to Trump and his policies, and very little to those 'true' Republicans that has fought against Trump from jump street.

Talk stupid all you want. It's becoming of you.
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Old 12-14-2018, 06:24 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by reckless View Post
and the record billions in the US Treasury that didn't exist under Obama, too. All thanks to Trump.
You forgot one SMALL fact....

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart

Which makes your above statement...mute...
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Old 12-14-2018, 06:34 PM   #79
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I may not be an economist, but isn't it harder to have monthly job creation when 4% unemployment than 10% unemployment? or is there no correlation at all?



yeah, well I am. Not a cop, fireman or work with horses. Actually went to college and got the degree. Not a "political person" either, straight facts. Heres the thing. When its full employment and growth is slowing......wages must rise. That's part of the "pessimism" on next year. You gotta have 3% growth just to keep up with the money this govt pisses away. And the job market will demand higher wages. That lowers corporate profits. Mike is also right, the data is way more important then what political clowns spout. There are already some crying to print more money with these bogus interest rates and trade wars there could eventually be a bout of inflation. If wages stay stagnant like they have for decades that just adds to the growth problem. Wages will rise some.


There are already several billionaire investors that are way better than I am saying the market could take a 20% hit and one that says this "debt Bubble" could be the worst recession in his lifetime...hes 76 years old. Its not Obamas fault or Trumps fault...its the way its the way the Fed and the Govt have been doing things for years. Things get built up bigger or longer than they should be...then the dam bursts. Although Trumps tariff deals just make the situation worse. The minute he tweeted hes the "Tariff Man" the market responded. They don't want it. Our trade deficit just jumped to a 10 year high. So, he, and all the political clowns that say, "Business Man gonna fix the trade deficit with tariffs"......are full of crap. That was disproved like 300 years ago. We were the first country that went full bore with somewhat open markets and have reaped the benefits.


Right now, the folks on top are looking at, growth slowing, wages rising and the interest on the debt ballooning. Not a bright year ahead, maybe. Cause its a little like the weather. The way the economy is firing with all the activity and employment maybe growth will just slow a little bit. Then all of this will be kicked down the road for a while. But every thing in my gut, from the way I've observed and learned over the years. Tells me that the status quo of debt, printing and winging it to get by, will be paid for heavily some day. To make it simple.....you give your kid a credit card with an unlimited spending cap. How does that not get ugly some day?


Like every drop before. It crashes or recedes. Regular folk lose jobs. Unemployment expands exponentially. Demand falls through the floor and it takes years to recover. People don't want facts.....the facts and reality are scary. They almost would rather deny it. That's sort of what this Democrat vs. Republican crap is all about. Both sides have been pissing a trillion a year away.....a freaking trillion! Even when times were good! There will be a day of recompense! History has proved many a time that you cant print money your problems away!

Last edited by burnsy; 12-14-2018 at 06:37 PM.
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Old 12-14-2018, 06:39 PM   #80
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I had an economics professor tell us (c.1974), that when unemployment goes below a certain number, people aren't looking for jobs; jobs are looking for people.And that means wage inflation.
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Old 12-14-2018, 07:36 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by barahona44 View Post
I had an economics professor tell us (c.1974), that when unemployment goes below a certain number, people aren't looking for jobs; jobs are looking for people.And that means wage inflation.
That’s the damn truth.......I just had to adjust my wages.

If you live in Texas and don’t have a job........you are dead
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Old 12-14-2018, 07:59 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by burnsy View Post
yeah, well I am. Not a cop, fireman or work with horses. Actually went to college and got the degree. Not a "political person" either, straight facts. Heres the thing. When its full employment and growth is slowing......wages must rise. That's part of the "pessimism" on next year. You gotta have 3% growth just to keep up with the money this govt pisses away. And the job market will demand higher wages. That lowers corporate profits. Mike is also right, the data is way more important then what political clowns spout. There are already some crying to print more money with these bogus interest rates and trade wars there could eventually be a bout of inflation. If wages stay stagnant like they have for decades that just adds to the growth problem. Wages will rise some.


There are already several billionaire investors that are way better than I am saying the market could take a 20% hit and one that says this "debt Bubble" could be the worst recession in his lifetime...hes 76 years old. Its not Obamas fault or Trumps fault...its the way its the way the Fed and the Govt have been doing things for years. Things get built up bigger or longer than they should be...then the dam bursts. Although Trumps tariff deals just make the situation worse. The minute he tweeted hes the "Tariff Man" the market responded. They don't want it. Our trade deficit just jumped to a 10 year high. So, he, and all the political clowns that say, "Business Man gonna fix the trade deficit with tariffs"......are full of crap. That was disproved like 300 years ago. We were the first country that went full bore with somewhat open markets and have reaped the benefits.


Right now, the folks on top are looking at, growth slowing, wages rising and the interest on the debt ballooning. Not a bright year ahead, maybe. Cause its a little like the weather. The way the economy is firing with all the activity and employment maybe growth will just slow a little bit. Then all of this will be kicked down the road for a while. But every thing in my gut, from the way I've observed and learned over the years. Tells me that the status quo of debt, printing and winging it to get by, will be paid for heavily some day. To make it simple.....you give your kid a credit card with an unlimited spending cap. How does that not get ugly some day?


Like every drop before. It crashes or recedes. Regular folk lose jobs. Unemployment expands exponentially. Demand falls through the floor and it takes years to recover. People don't want facts.....the facts and reality are scary. They almost would rather deny it. That's sort of what this Democrat vs. Republican crap is all about. Both sides have been pissing a trillion a year away.....a freaking trillion! Even when times were good! There will be a day of recompense! History has proved many a time that you cant print money your problems away!
I clearly see you're basically an optimist.

My suggestion is, if you don't mind, study history a bit more.
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Old 12-14-2018, 08:08 PM   #83
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By the way, not to disagree with myself but HISTORY is at best only a general guide to the future. In the largest sense we are on our own!

No professor told me this.
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Old 12-14-2018, 08:51 PM   #84
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Attenuated to Burnsey's post the following link posits on what some might find to be interesting correlations between monetary supply-tax revenues-market levels.
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Old 12-14-2018, 08:58 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by Buckeye View Post
I clearly see you're basically an optimist.

My suggestion is, if you don't mind, study history a bit more.
Actually...I think you're the one who needs to study history...I agree with his take pretty much...

Optimist/pessimist...labeling people to try and make some sort of VAGUE point...really don't fly in THE face of FACTS...
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Old 12-15-2018, 07:01 AM   #86
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Originally Posted by sammy the sage View Post
You forgot one SMALL fact....

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart

Which makes your above statement...mute...
What you linked has little to do with what I posted and the point I made, but I expected such.

Not dismissing the federal debt but until the debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 115+ per cent, the geniuses in Wash DC will continue to spend and waste money... and tax. We're at a dangerous 107 per cent now.

This is just the steel and aluminum tariffs; now that China and the other trading partners have agreed to lowering their tariffs, buy more of our goods such as cars and soybeans, etc., this will add moolah to the US Treasury and narrow the deficit (but not the federal debt; that needs radical change and the country is too soft for the required medicine needed.)

Quote:
The Trump administration has assessed $4.4 billion worth of duties on steel and aluminum imports and a range of goods from China under the tariffs it imposed in an effort to protect U.S. companies.

A spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security told the Washington Examiner that importers owe the federal government $4.4 billion for importing goods hit by the tariffs through Oct. 2, but said it was unclear how much of that total has been collected. The Treasury Department didn't have details on what portion of the $4.4 billion had been collected, and how much was still owed.

Still, the assessments show that the tariffs are imposing a real cost to importers, who are responsible for paying the charge.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...n-and-counting
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Old 12-15-2018, 07:33 AM   #87
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Reckless is a Fifth Ave Trump supporter. If Trump shot someone on live TV, Reckless would blame the news media for recording it.
I don't ever recall you mentioning that the media has ignored the corruption in the FBI, CIA, et al, pertaining to their framing of Trump with their attempt to overturn a duly elected President's election? Or about the proven corruption and sedition (treason to some) by the Clinton Foundation? Or worse, under Obama, his Administration's DoJ/FBI/CIA's collusion with Russia for the benefit of electing Hillary!? And a helluva lot more criminality ignored or pooh-poohed.

BUT especially the media's ignoring of the tremendous growth in our country's economy -- thanks solely to Trump and his policies of tax cuts, reform, trade and deregulation? Record low levels of unemployment too, wage increases -- systematically ignored for the convenience of the common sense deniers and Trump haters.

Financial 'wizards' such as Obama and clocker spent 3 years openly knocking Trump as an idiot and saying that none of the policies he ran on and wants to do, will work.

Now that these very same Trump policies have indeed worked, spectacularly and the USA is once again the financial engine of the world Obama is taking credit for this unprecedented success.

And resident genius clocker has also credited Obama. Amazing but typical and expected.

Facts do matter ... until the facts laugh at the Trump critics and know-it-alls, right?
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Old 12-15-2018, 07:35 AM   #88
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What you linked has little to do with what I posted and the point I made, but I expected such.

Not dismissing the federal debt but until the debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 115+ per cent, the geniuses in Wash DC will continue to spend and waste money... and tax. We're at a dangerous 107 per cent now.

This is just the steel and aluminum tariffs; now that China and the other trading partners have agreed to lowering their tariffs, buy more of our goods such as cars and soybeans, etc., this will add moolah to the US Treasury and narrow the deficit (but not the federal debt; that needs radical change and the country is too soft for the required medicine needed.)



https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...n-and-counting
Actually I got it...as did most people here...Trump should get credit for increasing revenue...to SOME extent that's true...Clocker made a few valid points elsewhere...

But he DID SIGN off on INCREASING the National Debt...which MORE THAN offsets the increased revenue...my point...

It really DOESN'T matter if THE deficit is narrowed...IF THE debt increases at A FASTER rate...

I will give Trump credit tho...the Tariffs are a form of TAX...like a tourist tax if you will....this has also been discussed by others here in other threads...at least THE man is trying....congress HAS BEEN worthless...
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Old 12-15-2018, 11:57 AM   #89
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And resident genius clocker has also credited Obama. Amazing but typical and expected.
Poor reading comprehension, or just deliberately obtuse? I said that presidents have less impact on the economy than they are given credit or blame for. I also said that there was some 7 years of growth during Obama's time in office. I did not say he was the cause of it. I also pointed out that the growth was slower under Obama than what is normal for recovery from a recession.
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Old 12-15-2018, 12:08 PM   #90
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I will give Trump credit tho...the Tariffs are a form of TAX...like a tourist tax if you will....this has also been discussed by others here in other threads...at least THE man is trying....congress HAS BEEN worthless...
How is it a tourist tax if it is paid by American consumers?

Trump is "trying" something that has been tried and failed many times in the past. Tariffs are taxes that protect a chosen few at the expense of the American public.

And he is trying to fix something that ain't broke. He has an irrational fixation about America losing manufacturing jobs and thinks that his tariffs will bring them back. He is totally blind to the reality that most lost manufacturing jobs were due to increased productivity and automation.
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