Does Accelerate now win HOY over Justify?

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I was impressed by D. Wayne Lukas's argument...where he explained that Justify had the more difficult campaign, because the Triple Crown races were already pre-scheduled...whereas Accelerate's races were plan-as-you-go affairs...where scheduling alterations could easily be made to better suit the horse.

But Lukas then goes on to predict that Justify would have beaten Accelerate in the BC Classic...so he loses whatever credit his prior argument had garnered.

I'm curious as to why you think that? If he stayed healthy and in training I think he'd have beaten him too. I'm not sure he could have beaten the Accelerate we saw in the Pacific Classic, but the one I saw in the Awesome Again and the BC Classic didn't look very good to me, just beating up on some G2/G3 types. He is a solid G1 horse that I think was tailing off.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

But Lukas then goes on to predict that Justify would have beaten Accelerate in the BC Classic...so he loses whatever credit his prior argument had garnered.

I can see arguing that Accelerate would have won, but I don't think you can dismiss Justify winning.

Justify is a 3yo. There is never a guarantee that a 3yo will develop and go forward, but most lightly raced healthy ones do. He was especially lightly raced and may not have been 100% at the end. Plus, I would argue he was probably a little better than his winning margins and final time figures suggested during the Triple Crown given the race flows in those races. He was the best of a fairly weak crop, but he was clearly best and I doubt we saw his best.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Interesting spin. Numbers for Justify but none for Accelerate.

Justify, as you said, started (and won) 6 times in a 5 month stretch including 3 major stakes at classic distances.

Accelerate started 7 times (i.e., once more than Justify, same number of wins) in an 11 month stretch including 4 major stakes at classic distances.

Who had the more difficult campaign?

Accelerate by far. Justify never ran in an unrestricted race and ran speed figures several lengths slower.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Accelerate by far. Justify never ran in an unrestricted race and ran speed figures several lengths slower.

Come on. Beating up on Prime Attraction and Dr. Dorr in smallish fields most of the time is tough, with well space racing?

The more I look at the chart of the Classic, that race is in contention for the worst BC Classic of all time.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

Come on. Beating up on Prime Attraction and Dr. Dorr in smallish fields most of the time is tough, with well space racing?

The more I look at the chart of the Classic, that race is in contention for the worst BC Classic of all time.

Just curious, what was Justify's Derby pace adjusted figure and Accelerates for the BC?

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Just curious, what was Justify's Derby pace adjusted figure and Accelerates for the BC?

127 for both, and both carrying 126 though one was obviously a young 3yo.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Accelerate by far. Justify never ran in an unrestricted race and ran speed figures several lengths slower.

It's quite disingenuous to refer to the classics simply as "restricted" races as though they do not hold special value in terms of history, prestige, and tradition.

If that contention were even remotely close to reality, there would be plenty of posters on here suggesting that Catholic Boy should be named champion 3yo, never mind the HOY debate.

The only meaningful comparison using speed figures is at 9 furlongs on a fast track, as Justify only ran on sloppy tracks at 9.5f and 10f and Accelerate did not attempt 12 furlongs.

Justify: 107 BSF Santa Anita Derby

Accelerate: 101 BSF San Pasqual
107 BSF Oaklawn Handicap (2nd)
100 BSF Awesome Again

[Buckeye]

In a word no.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by cj

I hear that fan base argument all the time, but did it really help with horses like Zenyatta and California Chrome? I'd also argue that nobody was showing up to the racetrack this year specifically to see Accelerate. Horses today don't race often enough for that.

What races did people show up for to see the TC winner? The ones where we see how quick he could circle his stall?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

What races did people show up for to see the TC winner? The ones where we see how quick he could circle his stall?

I was merely countering the point that Accelerate should be voted for to encourage people to keep horses in training longer and bring more fans to the game. It hasn't worked whether we are talking about an older horse or a Triple Crown winner.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by cj

I was merely countering the point that Accelerate should be voted for to encourage people to keep horses in training longer and bring more fans to the game. It hasn't worked whether we are talking about an older horse or a Triple Crown winner.

That is true. All those years they thought a TC winner would save the sport. Clearly not.

[rastajenk]

Who is "they?" I think the most informed observers believed, at the most, a TC winner would provide a temporary booster shot for a few months, but never believed in total salvation.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

127 for both, and both carrying 126 though one was obviously a young 3yo.

yea, no chance Justify could compete as he got older, outclassed.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

It's quite disingenuous to refer to the classics simply as "restricted" races as though they do not hold special value in terms of history, prestige, and tradition.

If that contention were even remotely close to reality, there would be plenty of posters on here suggesting that Catholic Boy should be named champion 3yo, never mind the HOY debate.

The only meaningful comparison using speed figures is at 9 furlongs on a fast track, as Justify only ran on sloppy tracks at 9.5f and 10f and Accelerate did not attempt 12 furlongs.

Justify: 107 BSF Santa Anita Derby

Accelerate: 101 BSF San Pasqual
107 BSF Oaklawn Handicap (2nd)
100 BSF Awesome Again

1 1/4 mles is the most important distance, Spalding.

And yes, just because they wear fancy hats at the Derby doesn't mean we forget that it is a restricted race.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cj

Come on. Beating up on Prime Attraction and Dr. Dorr in smallish fields most of the time is tough, with well space racing?

The more I look at the chart of the Classic, that race is in contention for the worst BC Classic of all time.

Cat Thief and Arcangues would like a word with you.