View Poll Results: What are the true odds of a Baffert Trifecta in the Kentucky Derby
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200-1 or more
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68 |
37.99% |
100-1 to 199-1
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22 |
12.29% |
60-1 to 99-1
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14 |
7.82% |
20-1 to 59-1
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16 |
8.94% |
Ain't gonna happen so I wouldn't bet a nickel
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59 |
32.96% |
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12-11-2018, 11:19 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
There aren't a lot of G1 races at 1 1/4 miles! Gun Runner's previous tries included the Dubai World Cup where he got beat by a freakish performance by Arrogate.
And Candy Ride himself was a G1 winner at 1 1/4 miles.
Game Winner should do fine if he is good enough.
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Your points are well taken, but as far as the 2017 Dubai World Cup goes, I would counter that despite Arrogate spotting the field 2-3 lengths coming out of the gate, Gun Runner was still unable to capitalize.
I think that says more about Gun Runner's stamina than it does about Arrogate's perceived greatness.
Certainly Arrogate's subsequent performances appear to support that contention.
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12-29-2018, 12:50 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 269
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As Dean Wormer would say:
Zero point Zero
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01-08-2019, 01:03 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Just posting because every time I log in it tells me that there are posts in this thread I haven't read. I've read every post and link and the poll and everything else, so I'm hoping this will stop it. There hasn't been a new post since the day after Christmas.
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01-08-2019, 01:12 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Just posting because every time I log in it tells me that there are posts in this thread I haven't read. I've read every post and link and the poll and everything else, so I'm hoping this will stop it. There hasn't been a new post since the day after Christmas.
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It means someone has recently voted in the poll.
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01-08-2019, 01:15 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Ah-ha! Mystery solved. Thank you Spalding No.
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01-09-2019, 12:31 AM
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#21
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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A million to one but that's only an estimate.
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01-11-2019, 05:29 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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The Baffert horses have mostly been stinking up the joint at Santa Anita so far this meet.
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01-12-2019, 05:52 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Lakehurst, NJ
Posts: 1,035
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I will go to my grave being vehemently opposed to uncoupled entries. Remember the six-horse entry that John Nerud had in the Beldame one year? Imagine the show prices if none of the six had finished in the money.
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01-21-2019, 08:27 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
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He has 17 nominated to Santa Anita derby
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01-21-2019, 11:07 AM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 1,934
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I think you underrate Candy Ride as a sire. (Agree with you about City Zip though.) Game Winner is a very legitimate Derby horse.
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I wouldn't count out Improbable because City Zip is his sire, his dame sire is AP Indy who is a stamina influence.
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02-04-2019, 01:03 AM
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#26
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Why is this thread not moved over to the TC forum?
Inquiring minds (who had their thread stopped cold about Mott's potential superstar) want to know!
Though it's nice to see top horses and races actually discussed in the racing forum.
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02-05-2019, 03:57 PM
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#27
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Good point, I'll move it.
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02-05-2019, 08:36 PM
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#28
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Race Player
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Home of the brave.
Posts: 1,044
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Best three in the crop . . .
Improbable
Game Winner / Mucho Gusto
~
If all three get in, he has a shot at it.
__________________
Nothing endures but change.
- Heraclitus 535-475 BC
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02-06-2019, 10:53 AM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,631
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He's got Game Winner who passes the class test and Improbable who passes the eye test. Both have the Derby strong Raise A Native sire line. Both are Buckpasser-x and both have a strong tail female. Barring setbacks, both are likely to secure a gate. It's early yet with the season's stronger class and distance tests pending. Baffert has plenty of time to pull a Pletcher and have four or five gates. Certainly not inconceivable for Baffert to pull the triple however I would not expect it and would need 200-1 before I played such a scenario.
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04-22-2019, 06:13 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Room for more?
You betcha
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