R11 Saratoga G1 Woodward Stakes 8/31/19

[Lemon Drop Husker]

It is the last day of August and the last 'big' day of the Saratoga meet in which we have multiple Graded Stakes races including a near lock as an automatic Breeder's Cup Classic qualifier in the Woodward Stakes.

Mr. Buff: A solid 5YO that has racked up a very solid career in stakes company with 10 wins in 30 tries and nearly $700K in the bank. Connections are taking a shot here with a guy who has a solid 4 (2-1-0) record at Saratoga and is 6 for 8 at the distance. Should be near the lead if not on it with only Preservationist looking to be the other that should be going early. Interesting entry that could spice up exotics.

Bal Harbour: Hasn't had any success at Saratoga in 2 career tries and is 0 for 3 at 9 panels. However, he is coming in off what could be considered a career best performance in the G2 Monmouth Cup last out, and as a 4YO could be on the improve. Prefer others.

Vino Rosso: The 'New Yorker' in the field should take quite a bit of local money. And why not? Just ran a :58.3 bullet work last friday and has always looked like he has been on the verge of that statement race. Will that be today? Talented colt has had a solid career including a G1 Gold Cup win at Santa Anita at 10 panels which is where the BC Classic will be ran this year. His record at Saratoga leaves a bit to be desired as is his 9F record, but those have come against some stacked fields including last years Travers. Feel like it is the right time for this guy to run a new career best effort.

Mongolian Groom: Outside invader from the Left Coast comes in off 2 weeks rest in his best race of his life when he finished 3rd in the Pacific Classic. Not sure what to take of that race, but it surely is an interesting turn around for the connections to ship here off just 2 weeks rest in back-to-back G1 races. The aggressive Saez gets the mount, so he should be in the mix early. Struggling to see this guy in the winner's circle or runner-up.

Preservationist: Created some buzz after his near gate to wire performance in the G2 Suburban at Belmont in July and didn't embarrass himself in the Whitney while finishing 4th, including behind a couple of rivals in here. Was washy before that last race, so a much calmer horse this time around could be the ticket. Serious contender that should be on the lead, or sitting just off the . Dangerous.

Forewarned: Ran about as good as he can run in the Whitney last out and while he outran his to get 5th 89/1 odds, he was never a factor. Hard to see him being in the mix here today either.

Yoshida: Defending champ got blitzed by an outstanding performance by McKinzie in the Whitney last out. No shame in that last, and he gets the tag as ML favorite at 5/2. My problem with this guy is that after popping a new career high figure the last two times, he simply has not backed them up. That is the situation we find him in here today, so I'll play against him even hitting the board.

Wooderson: Massive jump in class, but this guy does like the grounds here and attracts the services of Jose Ortiz in the irons. Alright, alright, alright he may not be in the winner's circle, but can certainly spice up some exotics. Underneath player.

Tom's d'Etat: 3 for 3 at Saratoga certainly jumps off the page, and you could say 2 of those 3 wins are his career best efforts. Tactical horse that can go on the lead, or come from the 2nd pack to get it done, so even with this post he should get into good position with the meet leading veteran Irad on his back. Interesting entry that I think will drift up in odds off his 4/1 ML.


SUMMARY: Hoping to get 3/1 or better on Vino Rosso and put some 'shots' underneath with him.

W
EX: /

[jay68802]

Tom's d'Etat Big problem with this one is when facing Graded Stakes company likes to be in the $, but not on top. Key in second and third.

Preservationist Strong contender here, Odds dictate if you can play for the win.

Play the and with a mixture of the and .

Now just trying to figure out if I should wear my red Husker t-shirt today, or my red Husker polo shirt today.

[Robert Fischer]

Thanks for posting this, LDH.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Vino Rosso has scratched.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Vino Rosso has scratched.

That's significant... He was a contender, and this also moves TOM'S D'ETAT one post closer to the rail.

As far as pace goes, it shouldn't change a whole lot.

[jimmyb]

/

[GMB@BP]

Like Wooderson a little at the price. I dont think this is a great field and to me Yoshida is going to be a bad 7/5 favorite. Can win but he is not 40% to.

[Robert Fischer]

Tough race for me to 'figure out'...

and are both potential winners who could also miss the exacta.

figures to get another dream trip but is pace and traffic dependent in addition to being subject to the luck/health of the .

seems like a potential 'block' of selections that I feel could add value third in a Trifecta or even perhaps second in an Exacta in the most favorable of scenarios. is mildly interesting for me to use somewhere, if the price is big enough.

[Tom]

Outside posts do terrible at 9 furlongs here.
Of the last 51 races that had 8 or more horses, one 4 winners have come from post 8 o higher. And only 6 have been further back than 5 lengths.

So I'm on the and the

Inside, speed, can get the distance, won over the track.

to fill out the gimmicks.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Vino is a massive scratch for me.


W Preservationist
EX/Tri Box


Yoshida or Tom's d'Etat beat me? I'm OK with that. Beat me.

[Robert Fischer]

On paper, the is the winner. However, I worry that even though the pace and class last time in the Whitney was a valid excuse, that the oft-rested PRESERVATIONIST could be in need of another patient layoff, rather than an entry. I can't fault the connections. He does look a winner or at least a win-contender (to others). Maybe a 'touch' cold on the board, or maybe simply didn't take the 'wise-guy' steam, that his attractive odds and paper form offer...


TOM'S D'ETAT is very good. If the isn't on his game, the 's only rival/adversity/question is being posted wide, w/ the short run to the first turn.
If the 'bounces' out of the gate and easily crosses over, I believe he'll be tough to beat. It's just that potential for losing ground/energy into the first turn today that is a touch scary.

YOSHIDA is the 'fun' horse, so I'm not surprised that he's taking $$.
We could very see a 'reenactment' of the 2019 Belmont, where plays the part of TACITUS and runs the best race while wide, and the does very little running until a winning response inside late...
He is obviously 'thriving'. The horse looks good, even if I'm not a big YOSHIDA fan (other than some nice $$ excluding him in wagers in his career).

We have three good favorites, and they're going to be tough to deny.

MR BUFF has a puncher's chance, as a disrespected lone-speed. Should the in fact have to patiently take the first turn wide, the has every right to get 'loose'... has to be less aggressive if Junior wants to change leads today, so could actually wire the field or hang on for second or third. More likely- they tackle him on the far turn.

BAL HARBOUR is a little bit cheaper (like the ). He has a 'puncher's chance' to be part of that turn tackle in a group of three...

has to really hope the race collapses and ride YOSHIDA's coattails...

I think the has too much adversity today...

Alive to the in Doubles... hope to get a few bucks back would love to see the inside long-shots get lucky.

exactas 9 / 124 are interesting as is a 9/ 57/ 124 trifecta

[rastajenk]

A simple exacta box for this simple minded observer.

[Tee]

& should be in good shape when the starts going backwards. If Mr Buff goes backwards.

[trifecta]

I like the Wooderson here.

Key the with the in the exotics.

[dilanesp]

I am not going to condemn the 's effort in gaming the win out. But what a depressing handicap division, on both coasts. Maximum Security will beat these guys easily.