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Old 11-27-2023, 12:07 AM   #1
crestridge
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Analyzing Races

I was wondering, is handicapping races a form of "brain training"? Engaging the mind to find solutions/making decisions concerning predicting what's to happen in this event? Not so much concerned with money, but more concerned to see if our ability to come close to what might occur in this event? A form of therapy, maybe to decrease the effects of aging, dementia?

This process involves many aspects of the mind/body, eyes, reading, research, learning how to use the computer, understand stats, create forms in Excel/other software applications, always growing in understanding how to increase accuracy of analysis? What ya think? Am I off thinking this way? It would be nice to also make some money, but that's a lofty idea now with the CAW's, trainers using "extra" resources that are hidden (at least for awhile) and so much money removed before the race begins.

To me, it's still enjoyable to process information, then come to a conclusion and immediately know the answer. Then maybe track what you're doing, attempting to improve. It's fun!!!
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Old 11-27-2023, 12:18 PM   #2
Robert Fischer
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Originally Posted by crestridge View Post
I was wondering, is handicapping races a form of "brain training"? Engaging the mind to find solutions/making decisions concerning predicting what's to happen in this event? Not so much concerned with money, but more concerned to see if our ability to come close to what might occur in this event? A form of therapy, maybe to decrease the effects of aging, dementia?

This process involves many aspects of the mind/body, eyes, reading, research, learning how to use the computer, understand stats, create forms in Excel/other software applications, always growing in understanding how to increase accuracy of analysis? What ya think? Am I off thinking this way? It would be nice to also make some money, but that's a lofty idea now with the CAW's, trainers using "extra" resources that are hidden (at least for awhile) and so much money removed before the race begins.

To me, it's still enjoyable to process information, then come to a conclusion and immediately know the answer. Then maybe track what you're doing, attempting to improve. It's fun!!!
Good stuff.

Depending on your interests and goals there's also a lot of stuff going on in a parimutuel market.

Predicting/Solving is very important for your accuracy, and then you want to find value in opinions where you strongly disagree with the market.
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Old 11-27-2023, 01:56 PM   #3
crestridge
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Yes sir, much is going on in the parimutuel market, some here, mainly use the odds board extensively, which requires much research, learning. There's many other ways of learning, all these ways requires much mental effort, which is good for us. But unfortunately, to really prosper financially these days, requires someone with a real "talent' for math, computer programing, maybe even more than one individual.

I picked up this book recently called, "Bet Smart"; it's about using the Kelly System for gambling/investing, by Stefan Hollos. But if you don't have a strong background in calculus, math, you won't get far. But this is what's before us today, guys who are involved in the "parimutuel market", they know these things. Well versed in computer programing, higher math education, really gifted individuals. Much to overcome, for a "regular guy". But that doesn't mean we can't enjoy the process, the research, learning how to use computers, programs, engaging the mind to work better towards improving our ability. To
see how we can improve, get better at the skills necessary to enjoy this "game". Give me your thoughts!!!
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Old 11-27-2023, 02:33 PM   #4
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I think because this game is priced so poorly, what you originally posted about is the ultimate appeal to those of us still playing this game. At least to me. The other appeal is you still see horses way over bet and way under bet. When you are right it is pretty motivating. In sports betting if you think a team is going to win by 40 and they are favored by 1, it doesn’t matter if they win 37-0 or win 10-7 on a last second field goal. You win the same amount and are not rewarded for your amazing prediction. You cap a competitive field of 10 horses, narrow it down to a 6-1 and 8-1 as the two best horses and you are correct now you are collecting over $100 for your $2 exacta box. Bring in the tri and super and just imagine what you can collect. That is why I feel the appeal to this game is so much better than other forms of advantage gambling, but the powers that be do not recognize what they have.
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Old 11-27-2023, 03:12 PM   #5
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crestridge;2915364]Yes sir, much is going on in the parimutuel market, some here, mainly use the odds board extensively, which requires much research, learning. There's many other ways of learning, all these ways requires much mental effort, which is good for us. But unfortunately, to really prosper financially these days, requires someone with a real "talent' for math, computer programing, maybe even more than one individual.

I picked up this book recently called, "Bet Smart"; it's about using the Kelly System for gambling/investing, by Stefan Hollos. But if you don't have a strong background in calculus, math, you won't get far. But this is what's before us today, guys who are involved in the "parimutuel market", they know these things. Well versed in computer programing, higher math education, really gifted individuals. Much to overcome, for a "regular guy". But that doesn't mean we can't enjoy the process, the research, learning how to use computers, programs, engaging the mind to work better towards improving our ability. To
see how we can improve, get better at the skills necessary to enjoy this "game". Give me your thoughts!!!


Quote:
Poindexter;2915370]I think because this game is priced so poorly, what you originally posted about is the ultimate appeal to those of us still playing this game. At least to me. The other appeal is you still see horses way over bet and way under bet. When you are right it is pretty motivating. In sports betting if you think a team is going to win by 40 and they are favored by 1, it doesn’t matter if they win 37-0 or win 10-7 on a last second field goal. You win the same amount and are not rewarded for your amazing prediction. You cap a competitive field of 10 horses, narrow it down to a 6-1 and 8-1 as the two best horses and you are correct now you are collecting over $100 for your $2 exacta box. Bring in the tri and super and just imagine what you can collect. That is why I feel the appeal to this game is so much better than other forms of advantage gambling, but the powers that be do not recognize what they have.
Definitely.

It's a great game.

And although mentioned 'Opinion vs. Odds', I'm not promoting that at the expense of accuracy, - or even ticket structure.

Lot of depth to this game. You could have a team of specialists or be widely diverse as an individual.
Some different thoughts
----------------------------
Accuracy
Opinion (Accuracy) vs. Odds
Reading the Board (Odds projection)
Structuring a Ticket
Bet Sizing (Kelly)
Race Selection

That's six important elements w/out getting into various methodologies (Pace, Speed, Class, Trips...), and it's still not an all-inclusive list.

It's not overwhelming, it's not endless, but it's substantial. There's depth if it interests and appeals to you.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-27-2023 at 03:23 PM.
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Old 11-27-2023, 05:47 PM   #6
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Yes incredible amounts of learning if motivated!!! To me, it's about the research/learning but learning within "my boundaries, comfort levels".
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Old 11-28-2023, 04:47 PM   #7
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looking at Andrew Beyer's "The Winning Horseplayer" for the first time. Surprised to see a nice chapter on Trip Handicapping.
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Old 11-28-2023, 06:18 PM   #8
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pattern recognition that fits certain scenarios.


WAGERING is another thing altogether
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Old 11-28-2023, 07:59 PM   #9
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looking at Andrew Beyer's "The Winning Horseplayer" for the first time. Surprised to see a nice chapter on Trip Handicapping.
Jason, you should try getting out more.
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Old 11-28-2023, 08:03 PM   #10
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Jason, you should try getting out more.
'touch grass' moment?
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Old 12-01-2023, 12:42 PM   #11
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Besides my mechanical routine for selections I also like to visualize in my mind how the race would run and finish based on, pace, speed, etc.. This sometime helps me to see if the race is normalized/more predictable or chaotic with too many contenders and everyone is at the wire. Some folks like the chaos as is sometimes provides lucrative payoffs. Chaotic races is not my cup of tea.
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