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Old 08-15-2018, 03:37 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
But the data over the past seven years for 7f on the dirt at SAR tells a different story.

I'm using a logisitic regression model that I developed myself.

Early speed is one of the factors in the model and the coefficients for the factors in the model are unique for each track-surface-dist --

Meaning that if the same race had been run at say 7f on the Tapeta at Woodbine:

I very well may have come up with 15-1 for the same horse.

But here, at 7f on the dirt at SAR, the model came up with 9-2.

I Hope I got most of that out in a way that makes sense,


-jp

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I totally love this.

I'm certain our methods are different, but I have an algorithm that creates profiles like this. I can run the algorithm against "all races" of a specific type or do it by sub categories like track, track condition, field size, etc... I think the public has general perceptions, but sometimes specific categories are different than those perceptions.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-15-2018 at 03:40 PM.
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Old 08-15-2018, 06:37 PM   #17
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it seems like no one saw what you saw,maybe your just paranoid.
Maybe you're just a troll.
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Old 08-15-2018, 07:50 PM   #18
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The game is squeaky clean this would never happen.
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Old 08-15-2018, 08:00 PM   #19
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This was, apparently, an interesting race.

We were discussing this in my private group and Mike Salony's handicapping pointed to the #2 & #10 being the only "live" horses in the race.

#10 ran 3rd but (according to the charts) was coming at them hard at the end.
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Old 08-17-2018, 02:01 PM   #20
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Tom - This is from HPIBet.

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File Type: jpg SAR20180810R08.jpg (166.6 KB, 22 views)
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Old 08-17-2018, 02:06 PM   #21
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Also from HPIBet, Aug 11 R6

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Old 08-17-2018, 02:09 PM   #22
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thanks for sharing that HPIBet data, Red Knave
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Old 08-17-2018, 03:04 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by sour grapes View Post
hes wrong ,i had a bet on the race and the horse was always 2-1.
the guy seems to exaggerate quite a bit.

The chance of a horse in NY going 2-1 to 1/2 at the bell is near zero.


Better chance of Maxine waters endorsing Trump for the second term
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Old 08-17-2018, 03:25 PM   #24
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Tom - This is from HPIBet.
Thanks, that is all I was asking.
I may have been looking at different track - TVG is not good at showing odds at other tracks on the crawl.
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Old 08-21-2018, 01:14 PM   #25
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The chance of a horse in NY going 2-1 to 1/2 at the bell is near zero.

What used to be near zero has got to be upped a little nowadays. Anyone see the money on the 3rd yesterday? Think the winner went from 9-5 to 4-5 on last flash or at least last minute. This is what's going on with Saratoga pools, shutter to think of the swings we have in store once AQU in winter rolls around.
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Old 08-21-2018, 09:34 PM   #26
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Thanks, that is all I was asking.
I may have been looking at different track - TVG is not good at showing odds at other tracks on the crawl.
I saw some folks saying on another medium that there was a mysterious odds drop in this year's UN. The winner- by far the longest of 3 C Brown horses in the race- seemed to go from around 35-1 to 23-1 around 3/4 mile into the race. The evidence shown was from the TVG feed. On the track feed, the horse was around 23-1 all along. So the TVG odds were incorrect.
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