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Old 02-05-2018, 04:36 AM   #136
fiznow
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Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Is it really progress when you purposely give a major advantage to a small percentage of your customers? Racing in NOT the financial markets - it is a business, a gambling game run by a track.

Should NYS give some kind of advantage to people who buy large numbers of lotto tickets over the guy who buys a couple every week?

They are not making ME lose - they are LOSING me. I bet under 10% of what I used to bet because the game suck so very much these days. Most day, I bet 0. Will be less this year. Much less.Is that the way to grow the game?

Nor adaptor die, adapt or leave.

I am not stupid enough to go out and buy a bunch of stock every day knowing that I have no shot against professional traders.

We gripe about tracks ignoring racing and favoring the casinos - that is their way to adapt. And all those people who go to them and pass by the entrance to he track. Why should they bother even looking at racing? The game is forcing the small bettors out just like it is forcing the small trainers and owners out. Pretty soon, the Bafferts and the Pletchers will have to find a filed and race their horses against each other because you won;t need race tracks with a handful of trainers and handful of whales betting on them.
I agree, its no progress. Its just pool manipulation and doesnt have anything to do with horse racing.
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Old 02-05-2018, 09:45 AM   #137
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So just to sum it up....

If you play into these pools and are not getting a rebate your pretty much a sucker?
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Old 02-05-2018, 10:21 AM   #138
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August 24th 2015.
That was another one...but the one I fondly remember is 5/6/10....that was a doozy...
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Old 02-05-2018, 10:24 AM   #139
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I don't know the specific term. You're wrong.
What does this mean? I'm wrong about what? I didn't make a statement...I asked a question...

What does having a "DIRECT TOTE," to quote you specifically, actually mean?

Do I have a "DIRECT TOTE" if I write a separate piece of software that communicates directly with my ADW and bypasses the web interface that most other people use? And this software can bet for me, automatically, if it detects something worth betting based on pool information that it can also download and analyze.

Do I have a "DIRECT TOTE" in that instance?

Just trying to understand the terminology some of you are using that makes all this stuff sound so "illegal."
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Old 02-05-2018, 11:56 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
What does this mean? I'm wrong about what? I didn't make a statement...I asked a question...

What does having a "DIRECT TOTE," to quote you specifically, actually mean?

Do I have a "DIRECT TOTE" if I write a separate piece of software that communicates directly with my ADW and bypasses the web interface that most other people use? And this software can bet for me, automatically, if it detects something worth betting based on pool information that it can also download and analyze.

Do I have a "DIRECT TOTE" in that instance?

Just trying to understand the terminology some of you are using that makes all this stuff sound so "illegal."
It's not illegal
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Old 02-05-2018, 12:24 PM   #141
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Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
It's not illegal
You don't like answering my question, do you?

I really want to know what you consider a "DIRECT TOTE" and why you make such things sound so dirty (we'll eliminate "illegal" and switch to "dirty.")

I still eagerly await your definition, because I truly don't know.
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Old 02-05-2018, 12:27 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
You don't like answering my question, do you?

I really want to know what you consider a "DIRECT TOTE" and why you make such things sound so dirty (we'll eliminate "illegal" and switch to "dirty.")

I still eagerly await your definition, because I truly don't know.
If I knew the correct term I would have written it already. Sound dirty? The current parimutuel system is corrupted IMO
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Old 02-05-2018, 01:51 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
So just to sum it up....

If you play into these pools and are not getting a rebate your pretty much a sucker?
Yes.
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Old 02-05-2018, 02:28 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
You don't like answering my question, do you?

I really want to know what you consider a "DIRECT TOTE" and why you make such things sound so dirty (we'll eliminate "illegal" and switch to "dirty.")

I still eagerly await your definition, because I truly don't know.
The term is API
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Old 02-05-2018, 02:36 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
The term is API
How is an API any different than taking what one can do manually and automating it?

It's not...

Like I said, I was doing this at least 10 years ago...on a rudimentary level, but the principle was still the same.

Nobody gave me anything. The ADW didn't give me anything. I wrote it myself.

The only thing an API does is make it easier to accomplish...and may also provide a faster way of getting information over than writing one yourself...

It's not magic secret sauce to riches. Nor does it provide an unfair advantage.

The advantage they have is in their value algorithms and their wagering algorithms.

Being able to get the bets in fast and close to the start of the race is something anyone, with a little effort, can do...

If I gave you the ability to get in a ton of bets at the last minute, would that suddenly turn you into this rebate whale? No. You need a lot more than that.
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Old 02-05-2018, 02:48 PM   #146
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OK, I feel like I have to do this every couple of months now. I guess there are a few that don’t remember or never read my replies because the same stuff keeps coming up again and again re CAW teams.


1. CAW teams are no better than their handicapping algorithms. I’ve read nonsense on this board as well as many others than they have an advantage because they can win even if they lose. Yeah, as long as their percentage loss is less than their rebate rate. Guess what, that’s true for all rebate players. If you’re not playing with a rebate (other than guys in a handful of states than have onerous source market fees), that’s on you. I can name a bunch of reputable ADWs that offer rebates including the one I started, BetPTC. I know a number of non-CAW players that make money because they lose at a rate lower than the rebates they receive.

2. There is no secret tote that CAW teams have access to that show ‘hidden’ will-pays. There’s not enough bandwidth available throughout the tote system to provide this even if someone wanted to. Remember, they need information on every combo bet on every guest site as well. Even if that COULD be made available it would be virtually useless because liquidity is so low at most tracks and such a large percentage of handle comes in in the final flash that information would be useless. Without giving away the secret sauce CAW teams PROJECT what the final dividend will be based upon historical data, current money in the pool, ML odds, exacta odds, etc. The best teams have the best dividend projection models. Accurate dividend projections are very, very hard to make.

3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. I’m not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that you’re going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.

4. I’m not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. They’re a lot smarter than I am too and I’m a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team I’m working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Don’t you think that is some kind of advantage when you’re working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.

5. If anyone believes that they are capable of the same level of performance and have the money to try this but lack an access point into the pools, contact me privately. Seriously, if you’re real I can get you the wagering resources and rebates you need. That’s what I do these days.

6. Finally, no, I don’t have a CAW model myself. I’ve played around with them before but I have never been able to develop a profitable one. It’s not an easy thing to do.
Awesome, informative post. Thanks for taking the time and effort to make it. I speculate as much, if not more, than the next guy on this subject as all my info is second hand and/or empty handed. I then try to extrapolate and understand what's going on that I can't see clearly first hand. You've cleared up a great deal for me. To the point that I see there are niches for players like myself, and actually, about 10 years ago, by total accident and coincidence, fell into one. I'm no competition for these guys in any way, but they have left opportunity out there, no matter how good of handicappers/value bettors they may become.
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Old 02-05-2018, 03:02 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
How is an API any different than taking what one can do manually and automating it?

It's not...

Like I said, I was doing this at least 10 years ago...on a rudimentary level, but the principle was still the same.

Nobody gave me anything. The ADW didn't give me anything. I wrote it myself.

The only thing an API does is make it easier to accomplish...and may also provide a faster way of getting information over than writing one yourself...

It's not magic secret sauce to riches. Nor does it provide an unfair advantage.

The advantage they have is in their value algorithms and their wagering algorithms.

Being able to get the bets in fast and close to the start of the race is something anyone, with a little effort, can do...

If I gave you the ability to get in a ton of bets at the last minute, would that suddenly turn you into this rebate whale? No. You need a lot more than that.
The "last minute" is an ETERNITY in today's computer age. These guys are placing their bets at the LAST SECOND. Yes...their real handicapping edge is the algorithms that they use...but in order to make proper use of these algorithms they must place their wagers AFTER the rest of us have placed theirs. If the whales placed their bets BEFORE the other players, then they would be at a disadvantage...so they decided to invest millions of dollars in payroll and software so they could make sure that this "disadvantage" is handed back to the rest of us.

Yes...technically you are right, of course. This "disadvantage" that the Whales have placed us in can't really be called "unfair"...because any of us with $10 million or so to spend on payroll and software can probably set up the same kind of "Whaling operation". But it's so much easier to just give up the game and move on to something else...which is what many of our brethren have chosen to do. And, WHO can blame them?
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Old 02-05-2018, 03:22 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
How is an API any different than taking what one can do manually and automating it?

It's not...

Like I said, I was doing this at least 10 years ago...on a rudimentary level, but the principle was still the same.

Nobody gave me anything. The ADW didn't give me anything. I wrote it myself.

The only thing an API does is make it easier to accomplish...and may also provide a faster way of getting information over than writing one yourself...

It's not magic secret sauce to riches. Nor does it provide an unfair advantage.

The advantage they have is in their value algorithms and their wagering algorithms.

Being able to get the bets in fast and close to the start of the race is something anyone, with a little effort, can do...

If I gave you the ability to get in a ton of bets at the last minute, would that suddenly turn you into this rebate whale? No. You need a lot more than that.
The whole point is that they are playing a different game than most of us. Strategy is to break even or even lose a little and make money on the rebates. They (the biggest players) are able to do this because of the size of the rebates. With lower takeout for all everyone competes on a level playing field and skill and luck determine the winners. That's the only way the game can grow. And of course their strategy would have to change from the model they are currently using.

Last edited by Andy Asaro; 02-05-2018 at 03:23 PM.
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Old 02-05-2018, 03:26 PM   #149
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The "last minute" is an ETERNITY in today's computer age. These guys are placing their bets at the LAST SECOND. Yes...their real handicapping edge is the algorithms that they use...but in order to make proper use of these algorithms they must place their wagers AFTER the rest of us have placed theirs. If the whales placed their bets BEFORE the other players, then they would be at a disadvantage...so they decided to invest millions of dollars in payroll and software so they could make sure that this "disadvantage" is handed back to the rest of us.

Yes...technically you are right, of course. This "disadvantage" that the Whales have placed us in can't really be called "unfair"...because any of us with $10 million or so to spend on payroll and software can probably set up the same kind of "Whaling operation". But it's so much easier to just give up the game and move on to something else...which is what many of our brethren have chosen to do. And, WHO can blame them?
Question...how do you think these operations are able to get their bets in "after the rest of us?"

Clearly, you don't think they're actually betting after the race goes off....do you?

If not, then they aren't actually getting it in AFTER the rest of us.

So what do you think they are doing? Putting the bet in when half the gate is loaded? Do they have timed algorithms for each track...so when a certain percentage of the gate is loaded, they put the bet in...

How do you think they do it?

These are genuine questions I have for those who keep telling me they are getting their bets in after the rest of us.
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Old 02-05-2018, 03:28 PM   #150
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The whole point is that they are playing a different game than most of us. Strategy is to break even or even lose a little and make money on the rebates. They (the biggest players) are able to do this because of the size of the rebates. With lower takeout for all everyone competes on a level playing field and skill and luck determine the winners. That's the only way the game can grow. And of course their strategy would have to change from the model they are currently using.
I don't have a problem with their wagering methods or goals. They are taking advantage of the environment in place. Who wouldn't do the same if they could?

I would. You would. We all would.

We would all like to be the Tom Brady of the NFL too...or the LeBron James of the NBA...but there are only a few of those types of successful athletes...
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