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07-02-2017, 09:25 AM
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#1
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
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Queen's Plate - WO Race 10
Not a fan of Woodbine and definitely not a fan of synthetic, but love to play this race every year.
I give the Channel Maker a great shot to win it. Has tactical speed in a race with few E types...can be placed almost anywhere, and should get a good trip close to the pace today. Has run his best figs at WO (turf and synthetic) and made a nice move in his last race but couldn't handle the winner while well clear of the others.
ML of 4-1 seems about right but I see him coming down a bit from that price.
Must use the also
Best of luck...your thoughts??
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-David Byrne
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07-02-2017, 09:48 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 153
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I will be on Tiz a Slam. Attfield has been pointing to this race and horse seems ready. Da Silva sticks with and has always been high on this one all along.
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07-02-2017, 10:02 AM
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#3
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
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Great card at WO today, POT, and this race is always on my radar as well.
is the 4 rules horse and the top Early horse with a dominating 26 point edge (CJ suggested a length is about 5 points, so do the math). However, his late pace is the worst in the field. Using the adjusted times, I get his %E to be 51.29% which doesn't look too high to me, but is cause for concern.
Guy Caballero is very interesting - third off a layoff, he has been improving ever race except his first back off the layoff, then set a new top last time, only 3 point below the 4 rules horse. Only 4 figs are higher from the last three races, and they are shared by only two horses. His early/late balance is very good - he will have first run over the top 4 best late horses. Of those four, King and his Court has the best speed figs to go with his late run.
At 20-1, this guy, the has my palm itching.
Early line, in order of my preference
10-1
8-1
5-1
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 07-02-2017 at 10:04 AM.
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07-02-2017, 10:42 AM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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I like the Malibu Secret to improve greatly off of his last start and be a live player in here. Obviously I also have to like the if I like the and then toss in the and ,
Aurora Way is particularly interesting having just a single race under his belt; but it may be as good as any in the field. The 2 horses he put away will be running in R5, so we might get a little better idea of what he beat, which might not be much.
Certainly wouldn't be surprised if it is an all filly exacta with the .
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07-02-2017, 11:21 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 6,633
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I'll take a stab on the in here. Part of an uncoupled entry for Casse. If you use the last as a prep and toss the Derby disaster, the race 3 back wins this. Should be forwardly placed and the price is right at 8-1 ML>
$10 WP
$5 Exacta Box the with
Good Luck!
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07-02-2017, 11:25 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,494
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Last edited by jimmyb; 07-02-2017 at 11:28 AM.
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07-02-2017, 11:26 AM
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#7
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Love the race.
This is a tough edition.
Was hoping to be betting-against State of Honor here ever since I saw him run 2nd in a Derby Prep in April. After losing a weak Trial, he won't be favored.
2 horses that I'm thinking about
Aurora Way - I like that he just broke maiden. Should be a fair price. Have no idea if good enough to win. Haven't seen anything that makes him look great. I could see him hitting the board with a good trip without using too much imagination.
Inflexibility - Must respect the barn. No superstar, but can roll when she has good momentum and a good setup. I like that she lost to Holy Helena last time. Hopefully a fair price.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-02-2017, 11:33 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 930
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07-02-2017, 12:18 PM
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#9
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regular user
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 37,506
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What a nice card @ Awesome Woodbine 2day GL 2Everyone EnjoyIt!
10th QP
Megagray
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donut believe the hype...
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07-02-2017, 12:23 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 790
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I have to agree with Sandy the Aurora Way - and the reason is Leparoux usually rides for Mark E. Casse and when he doesn't (when they are in the same race of course) he wins a lot of the time.
and a TBX 5, 6, 7, 11
I might add the in a couple other tri's closer to the race because I'm a big English Channel fan ( usually on the turf)
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07-02-2017, 05:37 PM
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#11
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
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So this made his debut on June 10th and is sitting there at 5-1?
Gonna let this dude beat me...no way.
EX: w
EX: w
WIN:
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
Last edited by PhantomOnTour; 07-02-2017 at 05:40 PM.
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07-02-2017, 05:39 PM
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#12
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-02-2017, 05:49 PM
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#13
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
So this made his debut on June 10th and is sitting there at 5-1?
Gonna let this dude beat me...no way.
EX: w
EX: w
WIN:
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The filly blows them away...
I was right about the and wrong about the , who had an interesting trip.
Hernandez took him off the rail almost immediately (which was good) but fell way too far back of a slow pace...predictably made a big move and hung.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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07-02-2017, 05:54 PM
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#14
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
The filly blows them away...
I was right about the and wrong about the , who had an interesting trip.
Hernandez took him off the rail almost immediately (which was good) but fell way too far back of a slow pace...predictably made a big move and hung.
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Obviously worried about the Filly continuing to get "perfect trips", but when a horse continues to do so, they are just that good.
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07-02-2017, 06:00 PM
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#15
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Obviously worried about the Filly continuing to get "perfect trips", but when a horse continues to do so, they are just that good.
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Ya know, I was about to comment on her trip...it was as good as you could hope for. Watched the replay a few times and the both had to wait on the far turn while she was bearing down on the leaders. The especially; notice how they both kicked it in when they got way off the rail in the stretch.
I think the next leg is 12f on turf so who knows if this will even factor
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