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Old 01-05-2012, 11:42 AM   #1
rayfox
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CLASS TELLS THE TALE

CLASS TELLS THE TALE

How many times have you heard a speed favoring handicapper say "class is speed and speed is class"? I hear it quite often and it always brings a smile to my face. The fact is that class is speed but speed is not class. Occasionally a good horse will rise out of lesser grade races because he has always had good speed. Truth of the matter is the horse was not yet properly placed in the correct level of competition. Case in Point, and it is as common as the sun rising out of the East every morning. A $10K claimer wins his most recent race in a blistering 1:09 flat. The trainer, for the horse’s next race moves the horse up in class to a $20K claiming race. The race is subsequently won in a slower 1:10 flat. And where do we find the $10K claimer? He finishes up the track a badly beaten 5th. I am assuming the exact same track conditions for the two races I am comparing.

Class is something you can’t see in a horse but you had better believe it’s there. What is the reason the cheaper horse couldn’t compete in the better race even though he had a much faster previous race than any of the current competitors? It’s the pace of a race. When the $20K horse was running on the lead he had yet to run as fast as he was capable. In the meantime, the $10K horse was all out to keep pace with the classier horse. When the real running began the cheaper horse had little left in him for the stretch. If you doubt what I have said, pick up the Daily Racing Form and look at the races where a horse ran an exceptionally fast race and was moved up in class. You’ll be a little surprised at what you find. Tactical speed and cheap speed are night and day. Pace does make the race andclass does tell the tale
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Old 01-05-2012, 11:59 AM   #2
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Yes...but I have noticed something as well...and "pace" doesn't seem to explain it very well.

That $10,000 horse -- who won in 1:09 flat while running in it's "own" group, but lost badly when raised to $20,000 eventhough that race was run in 1:10?

Chances are that the horse faced a SLOWER pace in the $20,000 1:10 flat race than he did in the 1:09 $10,000 race...and yet, he was STILL soundly defeated.

How do we explain that?
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Old 01-05-2012, 12:01 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Yes...but I have noticed something as well...and "pace" doesn't seem to explain it very well.

That $10,000 horse -- who won in 1:09 flat while running in it's "own" group, but lost badly when raised to $20,000 eventhough that race was run in 1:10?

Chances are that the horse faced a SLOWER pace in the $20,000 1:10 flat race than he did in the 1:09 $10,000 race...and yet, he was STILL soundly defeated.

How do we explain that?
some horses don't have what it takes

the dollar sign stresses them out
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Old 01-05-2012, 12:14 PM   #4
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I could be wrong about this but I believe that horses that win their last race and then step up one class level have a better chance than one that wins and goes up two levels. If he's gong up two levels, it says to me that the trainer is placing him for conditioning only and then will drop him back to the proper place for a win after today's race.
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Old 01-05-2012, 12:30 PM   #5
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lets do both examples with pace


10k win @ 1:09 , 20k loss @ 1:10



SLOW (10k was slower paced, 20k was fast early to fry "cheap speed")
Cool... In this scenario it means that closers are "classier". In fact a closing winner from that 10k "class" would dominate if he catches this 20k field next out. - Not only does the speed duel not affect him, it causes the speed horses to run a full second slower!!!

FAST (10k was faster paced, 20k very slow early and fast late)
OK... The problem here is that the 10k horse(and/or possibly some of the 20k horses) would have won the race with a better ride. Either the jockey(s) made a bad error, or we are talking about a rare herd running horse who stepped up from 10k but will not run out freely in the lead against these slow paced 20k horses. So in this case class is a jockey or a willingness to leave the herd.
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Old 01-05-2012, 12:39 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Yes...but I have noticed something as well...and "pace" doesn't seem to explain it very well.

That $10,000 horse -- who won in 1:09 flat while running in it's "own" group, but lost badly when raised to $20,000 eventhough that race was run in 1:10?

Chances are that the horse faced a SLOWER pace in the $20,000 1:10 flat race than he did in the 1:09 $10,000 race...and yet, he was STILL soundly defeated.

How do we explain that?
I think it's often between call acceleration and stamina reserves.

Higher quality speed horses are quicker out of the gate and can accelerate just a little faster early (if required) to establish the position they want. Then once they settle in, they can slow the pace down with the cheaper horse behind them. If the cheaper horse tries to go with them on a sustained basis, they will accelerate again and torch him first because they also have more stamina in reserve for the battle. They may also kill themselves doing it, but the horses are often not alike even when the fractions and final times are similar.
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Old 01-05-2012, 12:44 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I think it's often between call acceleration and stamina reserves.

Higher quality speed horses are quicker out of the gate and can accelerate just a little faster early to establish the position they want. Then once they settle in, the pace slows down with the cheaper horse behind them. If the cheaper horse tries to go with them on a sustained basis, they will accelerate again and torch him. They may also kill themselves doing it, but the horses are not alike even when the fractions are similar and final times are similar.
Classhandicapper,

I like what you write here, and this is what I have been telling myself for years now...but I remain unconvinced.

I think that there is an element to "class" that cannot be understood by conventional means...
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Old 01-05-2012, 12:57 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
Classhandicapper,

I like what you write here, and this is what I have been telling myself for years now...but I remain unconvinced.

I think that there is an element to "class" that cannot be understood by conventional means...
I won't dismiss that possibility, but you can often see what I am talking about even though we can't measure those between call challenges and activities currently.
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Old 01-05-2012, 01:03 PM   #9
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high class horses have the ability to accelerate on jockey demand

it is more than 'whats left in the tank' at the top of the stretch


think of it like driving down a 2 lane road and coming up to a slower vehicle,
there is traffic coming in the other lane, you see a clearing so decide to pass

would you rather be in a HUGO or a Porsche
and can you feel the difference when you floor it?


high class laughs at cheap speed
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Old 01-05-2012, 01:09 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by davew
high class horses have the ability to accelerate on jockey demand

it is more than 'whats left in the tank' at the top of the stretch


think of it like driving down a 2 lane road and coming up to a slower vehicle,
there is traffic coming in the other lane, you see a clearing so decide to pass

would you rather be in a HUGO or a Porsche
and can you feel the difference when you floor it?


high class laughs at cheap speed
Yeah...but we are not comparing Hugos to Porsches here...

In some cases, a horse triumphs -- in fast time -- in a $10,000 race...only to fail miserably when raised to a $12,500 race next out.

And, when dropped back to $10,000...he wins decisively again!
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Old 01-05-2012, 01:33 PM   #11
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It's a Yugo, not a Hugo
Carry on
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Old 01-05-2012, 02:07 PM   #12
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It's a Yugo, not a Hugo.
Carry on
I did wonder about what a Hugo was. My first thoughts were a deceased French king .
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Old 01-05-2012, 02:15 PM   #13
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I did wonder about what a Hugo was. My first thoughts were a deceased French king .
Oh, you mean the "nots?"

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Old 01-05-2012, 02:23 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by rayfox
[b]CLASS TELLS THE TALE
Class is something you can’t see in a horse but you had better believe it’s there. What is the reason the cheaper horse couldn’t compete in the better race even though he had a much faster previous race than any of the current competitors? It’s the pace of a race. When the $20K horse was running on the lead he had yet to run as fast as he was capable. In the meantime, the $10K horse was all out to keep pace with the classier horse.
As you go up the class ladder, and compare the differences in par fractional velocities, it's actually the later part of the race that contains the greatest difference, not the early part. Classy horses separate themselves from less classy horses more by late power than by early pace. Obviously a horse will fade if the early pace is too fast for it, but if a cheaper frontrunner goes into a race where the competition is too classy he'll be swamped late even if the early pace isn't too fast.
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Old 01-05-2012, 02:47 PM   #15
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This is a good topic. I'm wresting with class on turf vs dirt. Eg, you're handicapping a turf route. One entry has won at this level or one level above, same distance, but on dirt. Assume no previous turf experience and an average turf pedigree. Does this class transfer to the turf?
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