show pools converted into odds

[davew]

some ADWs show percentage of pool for place and show, along with totals

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by highnote

Yes. I have them both. Efficiency is a classic.

I've looked at a lot of these papers. Is there one thing in there that made you any money?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

I've looked at a lot of these papers. Is there one thing in there that made you any money?

Yes

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by highnote

Yes

Nice to hear, I assume its not something as mundane as betting against bridge jumpers.

If not, why don't you share it.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Nice to hear, I assume its not something as mundane as betting against bridge jumpers.

If not, why don't you share it.

may i ask what a bride jumper is?
thanks

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by steveb

may i ask what a bride jumper is?
thanks

My guess, a groom that can't control himself.

The other thing, a bridge jumper, is well known here as someone that can't wait to lose all their money betting sure things to show.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Nice to hear, I assume its not something as mundane as betting against bridge jumpers.

If not, why don't you share it.

It's pretty simple.

First, I am a decent computer programmer when it comes to horseracing. If you asked me to program for something other than horseracing I wouldn't be good at it because not much else that can be programmed is of interest to me.

I learned how to program the Dr. Z place and show system and automate the betting.

True story... I started with a bankroll of a couple thousand and it dwindled to $400 over a few months. I did some tweaks and in the next 6 months it ran up to over $25,000. I put that system in place 8-10 years ago. All I will say about it since then is that it does work, but not like in the book. You have to adopt it to the internet age. The math is the same, but the implementation is different.

By the way, I had been using the Dr. Z system successfully at the harness races and flats for several years before the internet. So I was confident that it would work. I used to be excited when I found 5 or 6 good bets in a day at the races. I was like a kid in a candy store when I started automatically betting the system at 25 or 30 tracks all day long on the internet!

Second, I learned everything I could about multinomial logistic regression. I have built many factor models. The hardest part is creating the predictive factors. You need a lot of them and they have to be good and they have to stay good over time, otherwise you have to replace them. So that means testing them occasionally and tweaking as necessary. It helps to have a statistical background, which I do. I also wrote code to automate the betting of the factor models, but I also had help with certain aspects of the code. Also, with the help of others I learned how to optimize the bets when there are more than one in a race -- especially in the case of exotics. This is where Generalized Reduced Gradient comes into play again.

I have done better in this multinomial logistic regression betting than in place and show, but how much better is not important. Suffice it to say, it works.

Benter and Woods have proved this.

I also learned a lot by reading the papers in "Efficiency". It's hard to attribute the knowledge I use to any one paper other than Benter's and Ziemba's, but I'd say the papers on market efficiency, favorite/longshot bias, optimal bet sizing, and others in the book gave me ideas and deeper understanding of horse race markets that helped me in many different ways -- such as getting an intuitive feel of how to create factors that would be predictive in a factor model.

I have been doing this for close to 30 years. I wouldn't recommend it to anyone. The stock market is easier and the market is a whole lot bigger. But racing is fun. So there's that aspect of it. Having fun is important.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by steveb

may i ask what a bride jumper is?
thanks

Let's say there is an extreme favorite in a race and there are only 4 or 5 horses in the race. Since the minimum payout to show is $2.10 per $2.00 wagered, sometimes the betting on the extreme favorite will command 95% or more of the show pool. This is also called a minus pool because racetracks actually pay out more than they take in when this happens.

The bridge jumper is the guy who bets perhaps $80,000 to show on the horse when there will be only a total of $100,000 in the pool. He is hoping to get a quick 5% return on his investment.

However, sometimes he loses all $80,000.

[AltonKelsey]

That's great highnote, gives all us handicappers struggling with speed figs , stats , track bias, and physical handicapping hope for a better way.

I'm sure I speak for many of you.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by steveb

may i ask what a bride jumper is?
thanks

Steve,
I tried writing code to make speed figures using your method. But I could never figure out how to iterate to make a daily track variant. The figures work so-so. I refer to them when I handicap a race but other people make better ones.

[Longshot6977]

Originally Posted by steveb

may i ask what a bride jumper is?
thanks

Check these out:

https://www.etsy.com/market/bride_jumper


OR:

If you meant bridge jumper,
https://blog.winningponies.com/2011/...aint-of-heart/

"Simply stated, a bridge jumper is a bettor who places an unusually large wager on a single horse, usually to show. While these bets vary in size it’s not unusual to see them approach $100,000 or more. Because show pools have a mandatory payout of $2.10 or $2.20 (depending on racing jurisdiction) no matter how low the odds actually are, if a bridge jumper is successful, he’ll get a small return on his huge bet no matter what the true odds are. This creates something that tracks refer to as a “minus pool” because more is paid out to the bridge jumper than the track receives via the takeout. Of course if the bridge jumper’s horse finishes out of the money, this will result in huge show payoffs for the other horses in the field, and the bridge jumper may just feel like hopping off the nearest bridge to the racetrack."

[highnote]

The thing about bridge jumpers is that they might not actually be bridge jumpers. Read Ziemba's paper called "Locks at the Racetrack".

When there is a large amount of money bet on one horse to show it is possible to construct a bet where you cannot lose if you bet on all the horses in the proper proportion.

So even though the big favorite finishes out of the money the supposed bridge jumpers could still turn a profit.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by highnote

Steve,
I tried writing code to make speed figures using your method. But I could never figure out how to iterate to make a daily track variant. The figures work so-so. I refer to them when I handicap a race but other people make better ones.

thanks firstly for the brid(g)e! jumper explanation.




what can i say about speed figures?

it's quite possible that others could make them better i guess.

it's also quite possible that you have not coded it properly, or, understood properly what i have said, or even if i have said how to make them.

in fact, i am pretty sure i haven't said how to make them, other than putting up a screenshot of how the woods syndicate were trying to emulate my way of doing it.
if i had put it up here, then there would have been no need to privately show others how to do it, would there?

even if you did it with the exact same method as i would, it would also depend on how YOU classified race types.

i think we have some wires crossed somewhere.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Longshot6977

Check these out:

https://www.etsy.com/market/bride_jumper


OR:

If you meant bridge jumper,
https://blog.winningponies.com/2011/...aint-of-heart/

"Simply stated, a bridge jumper is a bettor who places an unusually large wager on a single horse, usually to show. While these bets vary in size it’s not unusual to see them approach $100,000 or more. Because show pools have a mandatory payout of $2.10 or $2.20 (depending on racing jurisdiction) no matter how low the odds actually are, if a bridge jumper is successful, he’ll get a small return on his huge bet no matter what the true odds are. This creates something that tracks refer to as a “minus pool” because more is paid out to the bridge jumper than the track receives via the takeout. Of course if the bridge jumper’s horse finishes out of the money, this will result in huge show payoffs for the other horses in the field, and the bridge jumper may just feel like hopping off the nearest bridge to the racetrack."

thanks, and yes i meant bridge!!

just one question, does the operator of the show pool take the hit, or does the dividend on the other horses that show pay less to compensate.

in australia's case they're robbing peter to pay paul.
as in australia, it is the latter, or was, as i am out of it these days, so may be left behind as far as changes go.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by steveb

thanks firstly for the brid(g)e! jumper explanation.

i think we have some wires crossed somewhere.

Wires crossed is a feature here