View Poll Results: Gun Runner vs Songbird
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Gun Runner
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42 |
80.77% |
Songbird
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10 |
19.23% |
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07-17-2017, 11:19 AM
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#16
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,088
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
I'm interested to see what people think. The question isn't what horse you'd like to own, or which horse has a better record. Who is the better horse right now?
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Best horse right now? Not even a contest, Gun Runner would not even be a contest between him and Martini Glass. Clearly the distance was a problem for her the other day. Luckily, she was in a light spot. If the Personal Ensign (one of her next possible starts) was not turned back to 9 furlongs in 2012, I would say she would be a vulnerable favorite. After seeing that performance, depending on who shows up she will still be over bet unless her 3rd race back shoots her some improvement, which could happen. The fillies and mares can drop edge in a heart beat....that was a hard race for her. The horses in that race would be staring at Gun Runners ass end all the way around........RIGHT NOW, its not even close. The last two were supposed to be tune ups......it gets tougher from there for her. There's probably only a couple or a few horses that can possibly beat Gun Runner right now and Songbird as great as she was.......ain't one of them. She needs a "bounce back" performance to even consider the boys right now.
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07-17-2017, 11:21 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
I can't believe I forgot Serena's Song.
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From 2 to 3, Sky Beauty's career was fairly similar to Songbird's. Undefeated at 2 and (nearly) unbeatable at 3 while facing a fairly light 3yo filly crop. Beyond a pair of good but limited/inconsistent Phipps fillies (Dispute and Educated Risk), Sky Beauty pretty much strolled through the season while putting up modest speed figures for the most part. When she faced older horses for the first time in the BC Distaff she was beaten with no excuses (beyond shipping to CA).
The difference between Sky Beauty and Songbird appears at this point to be that Sky Beauty improved from age 3 to 4 averaging 105+ Beyers throughout the year before another meltdown in the Distaff. She only regressed as a 5yo or came undone.
People are saying Songbird has lost a step, but at this point I'd simply say she is the same filly as last year, which means she was never going to be fast enough for an older horse campaign if there was decent talent in the division.
Certainly there are some things possibly holding her back. She took 8 months to return to the races, which no matter what was reported in the press (minor leg injury in stall) suggests quite a lot of wear-and-tear from the previous campaign. In comparison, Hollendorfer's other 3yo champion filly Blind Luck ran as early as mid-January in her 4yo year. There is also something to be said for racing 10f in her second start (never mind shipping for both of those races). As I recall, her Alabama last year was perhaps her most uninspiring run of the season, more workman-like than spectacular.
As some horses seem to show marked improvement in their third start off a layoff I suppose Songbird deserves another chance before she's written off as not making the jump from 3 to 4. However, considering the above its probably just as likely that she goes backwards in her next start.
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07-17-2017, 11:29 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,760
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i would love to know how you can take SONGBIRD from her last race and convert it into a good run against better horses? its not happening and there is a good chance we have seen the end of her career as a race horse. i see no reason to pay high insurance for a horse that is on the downslide like her for whatever reason.
face it she was great as a 3 year old, but not so great now.
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07-17-2017, 11:33 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
I looked up Heavenly Orize to jog my memory. She did win once away from NY when she won at Oaklawn.
But how down would we be if Songbird just lost an ungraded stake to Swift and Classy by 2 1/2 lengths? She lost to Phone Chatter, Sardula, Penny's Reshoot (twice), Twist Afkeet, One Dreamer, Halo America, and more. Not exactly all-timers.
Just doing that critical assessing thing.
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I wouldn't begrudge a long-winded mare like Heavenly Prize for getting beat in a couple of sprint stakes and preps that were clearly tune-ups for important engagements like the Alabama and Apple Blossom (which she won).
The biggest stain on Heavenly Prize's career was getting beat by One Dreamer in the Distaff, but considering that she was the only 3yo filly from that outstanding crop (Inside Information, Lakeway, Sardula) to even make it to the race shows why the BC is rarely the true litmus test of a championship season.
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07-17-2017, 11:39 AM
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#20
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 9,047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
You can't go long without ass coming out.
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What did I say that was untrue?
Why is it so hard for you to deal with someone disagreeing without calling names?
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07-17-2017, 11:52 AM
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#21
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
What did I say that was untrue?
Why is it so hard for you to deal with someone disagreeing without calling names?
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Why's it so hard for you to not be a dick?
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07-17-2017, 11:56 AM
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#22
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
Why's it so hard for you to not be a dick?
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You can stop now.
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07-17-2017, 11:59 AM
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#23
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
You can stop now.
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For once, quit playing favorites. Your buddy was being a dick for no reason. So say something to him.
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07-17-2017, 12:01 PM
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#24
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
For once, quit playing favorites. Your buddy was being a dick for no reason. So say something to him.
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So we're going to head down towards another closed thread.
I'll remind you who called who a name first. Like this is kindergarten I suppose.
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07-17-2017, 12:11 PM
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#25
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
So we're going to head down towards another closed thread.
I'll remind you who called who a name first. Like this is kindergarten I suppose.
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I'll remind you that one needn't call someone "a name" to respond like an absolute dick. I don't want to waste my time coming up with a clever way of calling him a dick without directly doing so, just so I'm not calling him "a name." I mean, boo hoo. And you think I'm acting like a kindergartner?
Others on this forum know you protect Da Hoss. I've gotten PMs thanking me for calling him out.
So close the thread for all I care. If Da Hoss responds to me like a dick, I'm going to call him one.
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07-17-2017, 12:11 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
i would love to know how you can take SONGBIRD from her last race and convert it into a good run against better horses? its not happening and there is a good chance we have seen the end of her career as a race horse.
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It's called progression. Surely you must have seen horses coming off layoffs that improved from start to start despite moving up the ladder?
See the PPs for Kotashaan's comeback in late 1992 off a leg injury for the quintessential example:
8.5f Allowance race - 5th
9f Grade 3 - 4th
10f Grade 2 - 2nd
12f Grade 2- 1st
12f Grade 1 - 1st
14f Grade 1 - 1st
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07-17-2017, 12:13 PM
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#27
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
From 2 to 3, Sky Beauty's career was fairly similar to Songbird's. Undefeated at 2 and (nearly) unbeatable at 3 while facing a fairly light 3yo filly crop. Beyond a pair of good but limited/inconsistent Phipps fillies (Dispute and Educated Risk), Sky Beauty pretty much strolled through the season while putting up modest speed figures for the most part. When she faced older horses for the first time in the BC Distaff she was beaten with no excuses (beyond shipping to CA).
The difference between Sky Beauty and Songbird appears at this point to be that Sky Beauty improved from age 3 to 4 averaging 105+ Beyers throughout the year before another meltdown in the Distaff. She only regressed as a 5yo or came undone.
People are saying Songbird has lost a step, but at this point I'd simply say she is the same filly as last year, which means she was never going to be fast enough for an older horse campaign if there was decent talent in the division.
Certainly there are some things possibly holding her back. She took 8 months to return to the races, which no matter what was reported in the press (minor leg injury in stall) suggests quite a lot of wear-and-tear from the previous campaign. In comparison, Hollendorfer's other 3yo champion filly Blind Luck ran as early as mid-January in her 4yo year. There is also something to be said for racing 10f in her second start (never mind shipping for both of those races). As I recall, her Alabama last year was perhaps her most uninspiring run of the season, more workman-like than spectacular.
As some horses seem to show marked improvement in their third start off a layoff I suppose Songbird deserves another chance before she's written off as not making the jump from 3 to 4. However, considering the above its probably just as likely that she goes backwards in her next start.
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A later article said she had bone bruising, that a spot being slow to heal was why she was off so long.
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07-17-2017, 12:21 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
A later article said she had bone bruising, that a spot being slow to heal was why she was off so long.
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I thought I read that, too, and was looking for it before I posted but couldn't find it, so thanks.
The bone bruising issue in my opinion puts Songbird on the trail of regression rather than progression for future starts. I guess it will come down to whether Hollendorfer has been going all-in in these races knowing that her number of starts is limited or has been trying to hold something in reserve for the end of the year.
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07-17-2017, 12:34 PM
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#29
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
I thought I read that, too, and was looking for it before I posted but couldn't find it, so thanks.
The bone bruising issue in my opinion puts Songbird on the trail of regression rather than progression for future starts. I guess it will come down to whether Hollendorfer has been going all-in in these races knowing that her number of starts is limited or has been trying to hold something in reserve for the end of the year.
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It's concerning, for sure. But to the best of my knowledge, horses can come back from even severe bone bruising (let's say hers was severe since it took so long to come back) to the top of their game. Chrome was one of recent. I'm trying to recollect. Did he hit his best gear right after returning or did it take him a few races?
I'm a fan of the filly's, but like everyone else, I want to be wow'd, either by the time or ease of winning or something. These last 2 weren't wow races, but there were extenuating circumstances to not overestimate how bad her win was. 1 1/4 miles in second race, deep track, not being acclimated to the extreme heat/humidity, going cross country, and giving 9-13 pounds going 1 1/4 miles.
So let's see how she does in her next one. Almost doesn't seem right to be so negative on a win.
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07-17-2017, 12:43 PM
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#30
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Thinking more about it. She's taken her show to Santa Anita, Del Mar, Keeneland, Belmont, Saratoga, and Delaware Park. G1s wins at all those places.
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