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Old 03-16-2018, 07:14 PM   #361
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
4% whale handle.

Doubt it gets that low, or anything like it

If that were true , any decent handicapper would mint money
The pools are massive at SA compared to (say) MNR.
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Old 03-16-2018, 07:38 PM   #362
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In everyone's experience are there any tracks that are less "whale watched"? Or are all tracks being watched from Aqueduct to Zia Park?
Yes, there are less whale friendly tracks, Oaklawn is one that comes to mind. Just check around the adw's and see which tracks have the lowest rebates and the whales tend to avoid those. The tracks with a very low handle are not to the whale's benefit either. Whales bet where they think they have an advantage, do do you homework and you will see which tracks to avoid.
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Old 03-16-2018, 07:46 PM   #363
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Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
this isn't the CRW. they don't have access to the pools after the races start, its simply someone that does have access, someone and somewhere we don't know yet. someone is getting live c-band feeds and taking advantage of the game.

all this game needs to do is nothing to stop after the bell, or for the non-believers, the perception of after the bell going on and it will continue to die a slow death.
How much of an advantage would a live c band feed give? Is it seconds, a minute, more? Then you still have to get the bet in and if the ADW's are shut out how does one get the bet in? Do some whales have a direct hook up to the tracks? Just trying to understand how this works.
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Old 03-16-2018, 10:27 PM   #364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
The pools are massive at SA compared to (say) MNR.

This we know. I expect the whales also know this, and bet accordingly, increasing their handle along with the pool size. 4% , even 10% would be leaving a lot on the table.

It can't be 4%. Bet its 15-20%
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Old 03-17-2018, 01:47 AM   #365
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
This we know. I expect the whales also know this, and bet accordingly, increasing their handle along with the pool size. 4% , even 10% would be leaving a lot on the table.

It can't be 4%. Bet its 15-20%
Wouldn't it be harder to find an edge with a higher effective takeout, which I'm sure SoCal tracks have?
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Old 03-17-2018, 02:08 AM   #366
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Wouldn't it be harder to find an edge with a higher effective takeout, which I'm sure SoCal tracks have?
I concede that, but there's also the much greater liquidity to consider making for higher NET profits, which is all that really matters. You can't actually spend a higher ROI.
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Old 03-17-2018, 02:56 AM   #367
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Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
I concede that, but there's also the much greater liquidity to consider making for higher NET profits, which is all that really matters. You can't actually spend a higher ROI.
No doubt, I'm just saying percentage wise the amount would be smaller if edges are harder to find. That percentage, though, would obviously be a much higher dollar amount than a bigger percentage at a smaller track.
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Old 03-17-2018, 04:52 PM   #368
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R2 today at SA. I put a couple of bucks on first time starter Lucky Val with Tiago up. Horse goes off 16-1 , stays 16-1 the entire race, and he wins and than it changes to 15-1 and pays $32.20.
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Old 03-17-2018, 06:15 PM   #369
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anybody ever seen the winner go up in price? I heard a million stories like this where the winner drops after the wire but never one where the winner went up in price. If these guys aren't past posting they sure are on the winner 99.9% of the time.
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Old 03-17-2018, 06:23 PM   #370
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anybody ever seen the winner go up in price? I heard a million stories like this where the winner drops after the wire but never one where the winner went up in price. If these guys aren't past posting they sure are on the winner 99.9% of the time.
Of course there are some that go up in price. There are some high profile guys on twitter that point them out. But the percentage is highly in favor of horses dropping in odds. This doesn't mean it is past posting. It means the late money is the smartest money, which isn't really a surprise.
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Old 03-17-2018, 07:20 PM   #371
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It happens, and more than people think it does. within the last 2 weeks I played a exacta that went from $25.00 to $32.00 and had a horse at Golden Gate win, and go from 6-1 to 8-1 and paid 12-1. Want to help your game? Follow the late money at your track. Profile the horses the late money goes on. You will find some are easy to spot. Today at Tampa a horse I played won and went from 7-1 to 5-1. The nice thing is that I bet more money anticipating the drop in odds. You are also going to learn what trainers are connected to the late money. Suprise, surprise, the late money has some pretty good connections.
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Old 03-17-2018, 09:15 PM   #372
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Quote:
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cj[/B];2291294]Of course there are some that go up in price. There are some high profile guys on twitter that point them out. But the percentage is highly in favor of horses dropping in odds. This doesn't mean it is past posting. It means the late money is the smartest money, which isn't really a surprise.
Please listen to this voice of reason.

It is absolutely dead on the money.

And why do the odds move more today than they did 20+ years ago? Because a gigantic percentage of the late bet money is concentrated in a handful of people.

If that money was spread over even a few hundred people instead of certainly less than 10, there would be more variation.

Now, here's the final piece: When a particular track has a big "favorite day" the big boys lose money because the pie was sliced too many ways. That is, they were in agreement and killed each other's prices.

I hope that makes sense.


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Old 03-18-2018, 03:50 PM   #373
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Santa Anita Sunday Race 1.......

The 4 is 5-1 early 12 seconds into the race then her number goes out of the top 4

Comes flying down the stretch.....new odds 5-2

Perception is HORRIBLE, how do you explain THAT to a new fan?
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Old 03-18-2018, 04:29 PM   #374
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The fact that late money is smart money is a big reason to do something about large wagers near post time. They are obviously creating an information asymmetry by betting at the last second.

The fundamental problem has got to be that the tracks don't want to lose this handle. If that were not the case there are things that could be done.
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Old 03-18-2018, 04:42 PM   #375
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Quote:
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Santa Anita Sunday Race 1.......

The 4 is 5-1 early 12 seconds into the race then her number goes out of the top 4

Comes flying down the stretch.....new odds 5-2

Perception is HORRIBLE, how do you explain THAT to a new fan?
What "new fan"?
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