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Old 06-27-2018, 07:59 PM   #121
JohnGalt1
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You're unable to grasp the concept that tracks can change in speed?
That's why I used races with similar DRF variants, even though they are not perfect, it is what's out there.
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Old 06-27-2018, 08:17 PM   #122
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Happy to post the TimeformUS numbers but I'm not sure where this is going. What makes a race comparable to another? Tracks change speed and horses are at different points in their form cycle. Anyway, here goes:

Burma Road 114, 114

Mr. Jägermeister 120, 98 (You realize the 98 was as a young 2yo, right?)

Puntsville 99, 113, 106 (Assuming the middle race is 9-16)

Trident Hero 88, 86 (Assuming the first race is 8-18, not 11-18)

Shoot Craps 93, 88 (I put the most recent first, you had dates reversed above)

Be A Lady 100, 89

Thanks for your response.

I was looking for races with similar times and DRF figs and variants, even though I know they are not perfect.

Burma Road was the only turf example I found in the two days I looked at, so that could be another reason it's a questionable example. Even though you the two races equal, Bris makes one race 5 point higher.


I know Mr. Jägermeister 8/20/17 race was as a two year old but the times were equal at the same track with almost equal variants.

When I handicap a race with lightly raced three year old horses with one or two races as a two year old and then comes back in the Spring at three, I adjust the two year old races faster. Most two year old horses improve a lot after a winter lay off.



While I would not have adjusted the 2 year old race faster for his 3 year old season, because he had 4 races a s a two year old, I would not make it slower either.
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Old 06-27-2018, 09:39 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by JohnGalt1 View Post
Thanks for your response.

I was looking for races with similar times and DRF figs and variants, even though I know they are not perfect.

Burma Road was the only turf example I found in the two days I looked at, so that could be another reason it's a questionable example. Even though you the two races equal, Bris makes one race 5 point higher.


I know Mr. Jägermeister 8/20/17 race was as a two year old but the times were equal at the same track with almost equal variants.

When I handicap a race with lightly raced three year old horses with one or two races as a two year old and then comes back in the Spring at three, I adjust the two year old races faster. Most two year old horses improve a lot after a winter lay off.



While I would not have adjusted the 2 year old race faster for his 3 year old season, because he had 4 races a s a two year old, I would not make it slower either.
That is pretty much the whole point of speed figures though, to be able to better judge races than using the clock alone. Another is to compare different distances with numbers instead of trying to do it with dissimilar times, but the biggest thing is the track variant.
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Old 06-28-2018, 02:05 PM   #124
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When I handicap a race with lightly raced three year old horses with one or two races as a two year old and then comes back in the Spring at three, I adjust the two year old races faster. Most two year old horses improve a lot after a winter lay off.

While I would not have adjusted the 2 year old race faster for his 3 year old season, because he had 4 races a s a two year old, I would not make it slower either.
Adjustments like that are pretty complicated.

Part of the improvement you see with 2yos that turn 3 and 3yos as the season moves forward is related to physical maturity (the horse is getting bigger and stronger) and part of it is development that comes from getting fitter, more seasoned, and better with more racing.

Occasionally you will see a relatively lightly raced 4yo or 5yo that finally gets over whatever delayed their career. They will often develop and improve their figures as the season moves forward just like younger horses (though maybe not as quickly or extreme). That's telling you that part of it is not just "age". It's experience.

That makes it really tough to put that kind of thing in a formula of some kind. It's hard to isolate how much each factor contributes on average.

Then of course it gets even trickier with some pedigrees and/or trainers that develop horses differently than the average.

Great subject.
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Old 06-28-2018, 05:12 PM   #125
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Matt Bernier was questioning /criticizing some BSF's on his show this week.

That's a fact. From a Form employee.

They're bad figs. What I term as BOGUS.
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Old 06-28-2018, 07:45 PM   #126
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I don't think they are bogus but a lot of them highly suspect. No figs are perfect, but I'll stick with DRF and var.
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Old 06-28-2018, 07:48 PM   #127
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I don't think they are bogus but a lot of them highly suspect. No figs are perfect, but I'll stick with DRF and var.
The DRF+Variant figures are DYNAMITE...especially in routes, and on the turf.
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Old 06-28-2018, 07:55 PM   #128
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Matt Bernier was questioning /criticizing some BSF's on his show this week.

That's a fact. From a Form employee.

They're bad figs. What I term as BOGUS.

There is nothing wrong with questioning figs. Beyer doesn't suggest he gets every one exactly right. CJ wouldn't either. It's an evolving universe.

As you've been told over and over again, if you don't like the figs, Beyer...Timeform….Thorograph…..Ragozin….whatever.. ..don't use them. It's pretty simple. However, going on the internet and making all sorts of baseless accusations only makes one person look bad, and it's not the figure maker.
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Old 06-28-2018, 09:37 PM   #129
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There is nothing wrong with questioning figs. Beyer doesn't suggest he gets every one exactly right. CJ wouldn't either. It's an evolving universe.

As you've been told over and over again, if you don't like the figs, Beyer...Timeform….Thorograph…..Ragozin….whatever.. ..don't use them. It's pretty simple. However, going on the internet and making all sorts of baseless accusations only makes one person look bad, and it's not the figure maker.
They aren't baseless.

One question you might know the answer to.

Why aren't they Kovitz Speed Figures?

Andy was an English major and probably knows about as much about mathematics as a layman.

Big Andy could at least acknowledge that.

Guy made a nice career off someone else's discovery and stuck his own name on it.

What a guy!
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Old 06-28-2018, 09:42 PM   #130
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I think there was a wide gap in the TC races because of the early pace Justify ran which are not considered in the Beyer figs
That's one reason they suck.
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Old 06-28-2018, 10:09 PM   #131
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That's one reason they suck.
Let it go!

You come over as one of those guys who always has to have the last word on an issue, even when you are wrong. I bet you are a fun guy to be around.
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Old 06-28-2018, 10:13 PM   #132
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That's one reason they suck.
I thought you were leaving?

What, nowhere to go?
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Old 06-28-2018, 10:18 PM   #133
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I thought you were leaving?

What, nowhere to go?
Too much fun here.

Same to you woodspine. One guy agrees and I have to let it go?

In case you didn't notice, it's the point of the entire thread.
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Old 06-28-2018, 10:22 PM   #134
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Too much fun here.

Same to you woodspine. One guy agrees and I have to let it go?

In case you didn't notice, it's the point of the entire thread.
Let me guess. Had a few tonight?
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Old 06-29-2018, 02:48 AM   #135
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Too much fun here.

Same to you woodspine. One guy agrees and I have to let it go?

In case you didn't notice, it's the point of the entire thread.
I pity you, alright you don't agree with Andy's numbers, ignore them nobody is forcing you to look at them. If you believe they are so bad then you should be grateful for them, and not beating this dead horse about them. Since everybody thinks that the betting lines are mostly based on them, you should be glad they are there and making tons money off of them.

Please give us another excuse why you lose at this game other than Beyer figures.

Heads up everybody, Denny's next thread will be: Jockeys stiffing horses or ALL horses are drugged up!
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