The Derby

[cj]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

A good ride helps. People cannot help but wonder what happened when arguably the worst bred horse for classic distance in the entire field wins by daylight with the fastest time in about 20 years.

Honestly, what is the difference between 9 and 10 furlongs on dirt any more. Does anyone get passed in the last furlong? None of them are really bred for the distance these days.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Love how some people think a 3 time Derby winning, Hall of Fame jockey needs a drugged horse to win.

The next time a Hall of Fame jockey picks up a horse and puts him on his back and carries him across the finish line, let me know.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, the result was either an outstanding training job by Baffert or he has tricks up his sleeve that other trainers don't have or both.

It's not like people suddenly came to the conclusion Authentic wasn't a 10F horse because of his race in the Haskell when he almost got caught. He hasn't been finishing especially well in any of his races longer than a mile and wasn't really bred to go that far. People have been speculating he was more of a middle distance miler for months.

IMO a reasonable argument can be made he didn't have an especially easy trip in the SA Derby and Baffert had him short of his best until now. In his defense, Baffert has been saying from the beginning even when Nadal and Charlatan were running that Authentic was his best horse. Maybe we should have listened to him.

I would never accuse anyone of anything without evidence, but both his horses showed up at the Derby cranked to hilt full of energy. One got scratched because of it and Authentic was still feisty after the race. That, plus the horse rebreaking after being collared are the hallmarks of training magic. Being a great trainer and doing something that gives you an advantage (which could in fact be legal) are not mutually exclusive. Both can be true.

[groupie doll]

I really think the late defections/scratches helped Authentic tremendously. Art Collector and Guillermo were both E types and even Caracaro typically presses the pace. And those are not cheap speed horses. Those defections, plus the ride by JV (rode him to get the lead and did a good job of "discouraging" TTL in the stretch) and the fact that he wasn't exactly getting trounced in the 9f preps were enough to get the job done against this group.


I'm still peeved about 1000 Words though.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by cj

Honestly, what is the difference between 9 and 10 furlongs on dirt any more. Does anyone get passed in the last furlong? None of them are really bred for the distance these days.

True, the engine or near it has won all of the renewals for the past seven or eight years. I'd still argue it's unusual to have a horse looking gassed at 9F with horse manure breeding suddenly spike his speed figures going longer. I cancelled half my wagers when the other Baffert was scratched which saved me a chunk so I can't even be all that salty. I wasn't hitting that tri even if the Authentic was 3rd but would have caught at least a few c-notes from the future pools.

[MJC922]

I still think the jostling out to the five path on the first turn chasing 22.9 is what left the favorite empty. It may appear to be subtle but this is seriously sapping reserves that you need on the far turn to deliver that knockout punch. Once he headed him at the top of the stretch and made that (overly) hard yank on the rein to get the lead switch he was empty. Yes the winner ran well but I'd hesitate to say he's the better horse. Take NY Traffic out of the race and you'll be flipping the top two positions, I'm quite confident in that. Even into the second turn after chasing 1:10-1 when Tiz the Law wants to make a push-button move to deal some damage NY Traffic is still playing roadblock at his shoulder.

[Robert Fischer]

Hard to trust your eyes sometimes...

Watching that break and first turn =

1. Tiz the Law has a dream setup with Authentic and Honor A.P. eliminated
2. Paco is getting days and a warning.

Watching the final turn & Stretch Run =

1. Manny was badly outridden for entering the stretch, but it won't matter
2. How is Authentic still staying on?
3. Did Mike Smith misjudge the 1/8 pole as the 'Finish Line' in the Haskel? No, that's silly.

Originally Posted by Jeff P

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2j2AhlEUr8

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Hard to trust your eyes sometimes...

Watching that break and first turn =

1. Tiz the Law has a dream setup with Authentic and Honor A.P. eliminated
2. Paco is getting days and a warning.

Watching the final turn & Stretch Run =

1. Manny was badly outridden for entering the stretch, but it won't matter
2. How is Authentic still staying on?
3. Did Mike Smith misjudge the 1/8 pole as the 'Finish Line' in the Haskel? No, that's silly.

I had heard some scuttlebutt about Paco on twitter but never heard what it was exactly????

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I had heard some scuttlebutt about Paco on twitter but never heard what it was exactly????

AFAIK, no action has been taken.

?

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I had heard some scuttlebutt about Paco on twitter but never heard what it was exactly????

Personally I don't think he did anything wrong. Honor A. P. broke a step slow and Ny Traffic broke into the gap as horses often do. As somebody that watches may more races than most people since I time so many, I see a lot of head on starts and it happens all the time.

[taxicab]

The results of the Derby made sense.
Authentic came out of strong races(including the sneaky good San Felipe),and he had shown the ability to carry his built in early speed nicely before.......in a race where there wasn't a ton of early lick,the victory made sense.
Pace makes the race......right ?
And don't forget........in the Haskell,Authentic opened up a sizeable lead early in the stretch and thought the race was over.......he could of won by much more if he stayed focused.
Tiz the Law: The fact is he hasn't run against very much at all,he got eyeball to eyeball with a classy horse and couldn't pass him.
Honor A.P. He's wildly talented,but Mike Smith has gotten old(it shows up regularly in many of his rides)......give him a different jockey,you get better results.....that's just the way it is.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

Personally I don't think he did anything wrong. Honor A. P. broke a step slow and Ny Traffic broke into the gap as horses often do. As somebody that watches may more races than most people since I time so many, I see a lot of head on starts and it happens all the time.

thanks, I saw that pick 6 guy say something about it but it really didnt define anything.