Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 12-30-2021, 08:19 PM   #1
mrfurlong
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2021
Posts: 2
On-target performance ratings from equibase

Was wondering if anyone uses or is familiar with on-target performance ratings was wondering if anyone knew points per lengths using their product any help with this would be greatly appreciated kindly.
mrfurlong is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 11:20 AM   #2
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,506
Good morning. On-Target Performance Ratings use a tighter scale (sheets-style scale) where a point in the rating would equate to approximately 2 lengths, but that would also vary by distance, i.e. somewhat more lengths at a route distance and less at a sprint. I'm the creator of On-Target so you can feel free to ask away. The product has come a really long way in terms of how the ratings are generated vs the early days over 20 years ago, it has been a life's work for me. I wouldn't bother putting anything out there that wasn't the best available. I believe if anyone takes the time to run a study for accuracy vs anyone else's stuff they will be satisfied with the results.
__________________
North American Class Rankings
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 12:05 PM   #3
5thstreetpicks
Handicapping Service
 
5thstreetpicks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: Las Vegas nv
Posts: 926
How you doing sir I do love your figures I sell a daily tip sheet and I try to entice or recommend that my members get on target performance sheets the reason is because they are that good at separating my top four picks so again let me say thank you very much
Jim
5thstreetpicks
__________________
Need a little help ?
5thstreetpicks
5thstreetpicks is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 12:15 PM   #4
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,506
Quote:
Originally Posted by 5thstreetpicks View Post
How you doing sir I do love your figures I sell a daily tip sheet and I try to entice or recommend that my members get on target performance sheets the reason is because they are that good at separating my top four picks so again let me say thank you very much
Jim
5thstreetpicks
Wow thank you sir for mentioning this. You made my day. I don't mention the product out here much if at all but I do certainly appreciate every single subscriber over the years. It means a lot when someone appreciates the level of effort that went into this, my now ex-wife can vouch for that.
__________________
North American Class Rankings
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 12:56 PM   #5
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrfurlong View Post
Was wondering if anyone uses or is familiar with on-target performance ratings was wondering if anyone knew points per lengths using their product any help with this would be greatly appreciated kindly.
Seen this pattern once or twice before...newbie asks about product, several months later asks same question, even after getting his answer the first time.

NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 01:31 PM   #6
5thstreetpicks
Handicapping Service
 
5thstreetpicks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: Las Vegas nv
Posts: 926
You are very welcome and I know what it's like to put hard work into something see the problem that new people coming to any kind of sheet numbers is they think because a horse ran a good number he's going to run it again and again instead of understanding and reading the graph the way it's meant to be any sheet numbers are going to outperform normal produced speed figures thats just a straight up fact so my advice to the gentleman that started this post stop worrying about beating length if you're going to get the sheets pay for the monthly service take three to four days right down results go back and look at the charts and understand why that horse won That's the problem with most handicappers nowadays they don't take the time to go back and understand why that horse won My old boss pistol Pete from my aqueduct days in the '80s has always said a successful handicapper will always go back and check why that horse won there is always a reason why
Thanks. Jim
__________________
Need a little help ?
5thstreetpicks
5thstreetpicks is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 02:02 PM   #7
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by 5thstreetpicks View Post
My old boss pistol Pete from my aqueduct days in the '80s has always said a successful handicapper will always go back and check why that horse won there is always a reason why
Thanks. Jim
That was good advice back in the 80's, but the new year is now 2022.....Effort is one thing, results in a constantly shifting info game are another.
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 02:15 PM   #8
5thstreetpicks
Handicapping Service
 
5thstreetpicks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: Las Vegas nv
Posts: 926
That is true Mr Randall but we are in an ever-changing information age so basically it comes down to how you interpret the information in front of you if you are one of those handicap that just can't get by a horse that has the best figures well you'll win at 33% with low odds because everybody and grandmother can see the same information.
__________________
Need a little help ?
5thstreetpicks
5thstreetpicks is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 05:54 PM   #9
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by 5thstreetpicks View Post
My old boss pistol Pete from my aqueduct days in the '80s has always said a successful handicapper will always go back and check why that horse won there is always a reason why.
This reminds me of the inimitable Tom Ainslie...who once quipped:

"After every race...another system is born".
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 06:24 PM   #10
Half Smoke
Registered User
 
Half Smoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,278
Quote:
Originally Posted by 5thstreetpicks View Post
My old boss pistol Pete from my aqueduct days in the '80s has always said a successful handicapper will always go back and check why that horse won there is always a reason why

from my experience I can say that usually the reason a horse won is that he arrived at the finish line before the other horses

I hope that was helpful__________________________(-:\


.
__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Half Smoke is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 06:31 PM   #11
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
After the winning horse crosses the finish line...the reasons why become pretty obvious.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-31-2021, 08:23 PM   #12
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,506
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Seen this pattern once or twice before...newbie asks about product, several months later asks same question, even after getting his answer the first time.

I see the poster asked about equibase's figures before (not On-Target). Just to clarify, I have zero to do with equibase speed figures or trackmaster speed figures for that matter and the reverse is also true. They (TM) essentially run the cash register for me, handle subscriptions etc, while I work a day job and try to lead a normal life post-professional gambling days. Whatever 'scale' those folks use is something I haven't looked at in 20 years. I implemented the sheet-style scale for these numbers 20 years ago because it fit better, i.e. if Len's customer's for example wanted to try the product it was an easy comparison, plus I was purchasing all of the seminar tapes and read Len's book so I wanted a product that was in line with all of my own studies branching out from there at the time. My numbers are all generated in house overnight at 2am after charts are downloaded. The way I look at it is I need the data to generate the best inputs for myself and that framework of high quality inputs extends into my own research. If anyone else wants to tag along they can (by subscribing) and in the meantime we'll continue to stay under the radar which is better for everyone involved tbh.
__________________
North American Class Rankings
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-03-2022, 09:46 AM   #13
ubercapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1,229
Without putting words in the person who posted the comment about going back and seeing why a horse won, I think they meant going back and seeing what you missed (if you didn't have the horse as a contender).

Dick Mitchell was really big on this theory. He said to wait a day or two so you'd have a clear mind then take a fresh look and see what you might have missed.

He added that 20% of the time you'll still have no clue (stuff happens) and should move on. Most of the rest of the time you might find something which was overlooked which you might weight more heavily the next time that factor came up.
ubercapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-03-2022, 10:57 AM   #14
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922 View Post
Good morning. On-Target Performance Ratings use a tighter scale (sheets-style scale) where a point in the rating would equate to approximately 2 lengths, but that would also vary by distance, i.e. somewhat more lengths at a route distance and less at a sprint. I'm the creator of On-Target so you can feel free to ask away. The product has come a really long way in terms of how the ratings are generated vs the early days over 20 years ago, it has been a life's work for me. I wouldn't bother putting anything out there that wasn't the best available. I believe if anyone takes the time to run a study for accuracy vs anyone else's stuff they will be satisfied with the results.
We've had a number of productive conversations over the years and think in similar terms about a number of things. Without giving way the secret sauce, would you mind elaborating on what goes into the figures?
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-03-2022, 11:03 AM   #15
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,463
Agree with that. Plan>Do>Check>Act.
Horse racing is no different than business. Except maybe more work.
You're either on top of the game or the game is on top of you.

btw, where are the OT ratings found on EB?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:21 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.