several storms forecasted- will Santa Anita open on time?

[dilanesp]

We have several storms coming into Southern California starting tomorrow. It's going to be a wet Christmas. And though the chance of rain for Arcadia is forecast at 12% on 12/26, that number is higher in the rest of the region.

We know how Santa Anita feels about off tracks these days. OTOH, December 26 is always one of their biggest days of the year. Will they open on schedule? And will they open for Day 2 as an additional storm is forecast to come through on 12/27?

[Andy Asaro]

I'm driving up Christmas night and staying for a couple days. Imagine the surface will be a little wet Sunday and Monday. May have a turf race or two altered as well. Looking forward to it.

[Al Gobbi]

If there is any substantial rain forecasted for Monday 12/27, I think they’ll cancel and move that card to Thursday 12/30.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Al Gobbi

If there is any substantial rain forecasted for Monday 12/27, I think they’ll cancel and move that card to Thursday 12/30.

As of now, it's 69% for Arcadia, including steady rain in the morning and showers later on in the day.

[davew]

atmospheric rivers dump quite a bit of water over those areas under the stream.

[Jeff P]

With weather satellites (data and imagery) it's easy to know the what - in this case a low pressure system.

But it's tough to make accurate predictions several days out about where and when a moving system is going to be.

The slightest course change now can result in a slowly moving weather system ending up hundreds of miles away from where you originally thought it would be.

But as time shrinks - the accuracy of where, and when goes up substantially.

That said, pinging a weather api that I use with gps coordinates for the Santa Anita finish line, along with time of day (I used 4pm) along with the requested dates Wed 12-22-2021, Thur 12-23-2021, Fri 12-24-2021, Sat 12-25-2021, and a request code for map type:

The api returned map images for Wed 12-22-2021, Thur 12-23-2021, Fri 12-24-2021, Sat 12-25-2021, and Sun 12-26-2021. (See thumbnails below.)

That said, based on past experience, if I were to wait until Saturday night and ping the api again - I'd say there's a 95% chance I'd be looking at a very accurate map for opening day (Sunday.)


-jp

.

[rastajenk]

You guys have me on pins and needles. Can't wait 'til this plays out.

[Jeff P]

Right now the bulk of the rain is well to the north (stretching from out over the Pacific to Sacramento and beyond.)

By 10 pm tonight the models have Arcadia right in the thick of it (with up to 2 inches of measurable rain.)

See clickable thumbnails below.


-jp

.

[elhelmete]

Raining pretty steady about 25 miles west of Arcadia.

[horsefan2019]

Its light rain right now not going to make a significant impact.

[Al Gobbi]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

As of now, it's 69% for Arcadia, including steady rain in the morning and showers later on in the day.

Weather Channel now says an inch of rain is possible for Monday

[horsefan2019]

Guess I spoke too soon...its coming down steadily the past couple of hours....if it keeps at this for a couple of days I could see them delaying opening day.

[Jeff P]

Current models now predicting about 1.3 inches of rain in the immediate vicinity of Santa Anita by 10:00 pm tonight (as opposed to the earlier prediction of up to 2 inches by then.)

see clickable thumbnail.


-jp

.

[chrisl]

Stockton got pummeled. I had to shut the project down.

[Jeff P]

Current models now have the system lingering in the Arcadia area overnight - possibly reaching 2 inches of accumulated rain since Thurs morning sometime between 5 am and 6 am Fri morning.

clickable thumbnail below


-jp

.