NYRA: Saratoga Race Course’s Summer Season Will Likely Occur Without Fans

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

What actually happened was Keeneland running the prior week. That's what really happened.

The narratives here are pretty funny. Saratoga is, unsurprisingly, proving out the value of it's brand as far as handle.....despite way too many people ( all of whom are now silent...except one who keeps foolishly trying to come up with other reasons...but, then again, he will do anything to be able to write one epic tome of a post after another that nobody reads ) acting like they knew better.

Look Andy, the facts are the facts even when you deny them.

Everyone knows now that a LOT of trainers (including big names) did not want to go to Saratoga for a variety of reasons. I've been saying that from the start. Many have since come public and expressed that and even worse others didn't go or brought fewer horses.

You are too smart to not see that almost every track in the country has been blowing the roof off their handle records because of lack of other gaming alternatives. Belmont's all source handle was supposedly up 42% according to Bloodhorse.

Anything less than a blowout at Saratoga will be disappointing and mean the brand did not carry as much weight as thought.

No one that understands racing would say Saratoga handles more than Aqueduct without considering the quality of the racing, purses, field sizes, and vacation aspects of Saratoga (like was implied in some articles). Those things ARE the brand and they are diminished this year.

I am allowed to wish NYRA and you personally all the success in the world at Saratoga and still think other than the turf course issue, you'd have been better off keeping the trainers and owners happy at Belmont with the same high quality racing that exists at Saratoga now but with slightly bigger fields.

[Waquoit]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

According to the drf the average field size was only 7.43 for the opening week. Yikes!

Maybe field size has been suboptimal but the racing and payouts have been great.

[the little guy]

Rarely does one's point get proven so quickly and obviously:-)

Anyone that actually thinks the handle at Belmont with the same cards we just ran at Saratoga would be even close to the $80 million handled for four days is, well, you know.....

Also, and this will be obvious to all save one epic tome deliverer.....we couldn't have run at Belmont all Summer, as the turf courses could not have taken the endless use, so we would have moved to Aqueduct. Maybe the David Foster Wallace ( not in quality but in quantity ) of PA can tell us how that would have worked out....though I think most are praying he doesn't try.

Don't worry....he will. To quote our fearless leader....

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I guess some people are eternally hopeless.

[o_crunk]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Rarely does one's point get proven so quickly and obviously:-)

Anyone that actually thinks the handle at Belmont with the same cards we just ran at Saratoga would be even close to the $80 million handled for four days is, well, you know.....

BEL 4 day weeks were averaging close to $70M (not counting Belmont Stakes). This with other 'A' signals in the mix. This past weekend there was only one 'A' signal - SAR. No DMR.

We will never know the answer now but I suspect it would be a lot closer than many of the pundits would think. Handle capacity is about 10 to 20% above normal during these covid times - all variables being equal. Handle at SAR was up 10% this weekend and that's without DMR, so about a little less than one would expect handle to be being the lone 'A' signal. I would also note the only down day out of the 4 was Saturday when MTH stole a bit of their thunder.

No one doubts that SAR is a stronger brand than BEL. Without on-track fans, the handle now tends to go more to better betting opportunities. That's the point I think many of the SAR pessimists, like myself, are trying to make. It's not quite as strong an argument that the brand will carry them particularly when the evidence in handle numbers of the last few months have proven that correct.

I would expect SAR to look like it's doing well handle-wise in the coming weeks. They will have the benefit of an extra Saturday vs last year should they complete the entire meet without any cancellations. The field size is a persistent issue at NYRA tracks, a byproduct of a racing program that is geared to the top class races but doesn't have enough top class horses. I would expect the lower level claimers, which make up the lion share of racing even at NYRA, to let them down over the course of the meet and by the end, the lack of on-track handle will hurt the overall number. Add in the eventuality that other "ball" sports are starting this week and after which will lead some players to forget about racing quickly. I think it's a longshot they eclipse last year's number.

All of this is in the context of covid. NYRA made a decision to move everything up to Saratoga. This is an area with very low prevalence of covid and now you've got the locals a little upset about how things are playing out - opened bars and restaurants but closed tracks? Hopefully it works out but there is a significant chance it doesn't work out and if it doesn't, having a turf course in condition for racing will be the least of their problems.

[Tom]

MY 2 cents - I am curious why everyone so so concerned with handle-WE aren't getting a cut of it!

Why should I care how good a track does - they don't care about me.

Actually, I don't understand why tracks even bother to have fans on the ground - they only care about the whales' handle anyways, so why bother with the po' trash that shows up - is hot dog money that big of a deal?

[the little guy]

What a younger bar crowd on Caroline Street has to do with us racing, at least this year if not any year, I will never understand, but then again, we have always been a convenient scapegoat, especially from some specific outlets. People were flocking to the bar scene here before we began racing this Summer and our presence did not affect that materially, if at all.

I know you are a extremely bright guy, but you shouldn't ignore the field size we had at Belmont for much of the meet, and particularly the four 11 race cards you referenced in a Tweet that was quoted here compared to the field size we had this weekend. We both look at handle numbers quite a bit and I have trouble believing that you objectively feel we would have been anywhere close to this past weekend's $80 million four day handle had these same cards been run at Belmont. Even $60 million seems unlikely.

The one week of racing at Keeneland, as I'm sure you know, had a very deleterious affect on us, and likely will for probably the entire first book ( which encompasses three weeks ). Hopefully that will mitigate in early August. Churchill running Derby week the final week will hurt as well. However, other factors have worked in our favor ( particularly at Belmont ) so for us to complain about one while ignoring the other would also be misguided.

Regardless, I always appreciate your insights ( truly ). Thanks. Hope you're well.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Tom

MY 2 cents - I am curious why everyone so so concerned with handle-WE aren't getting a cut of it!

Why should I care how good a track does - they don't care about me.

Actually, I don't understand why tracks even bother to have fans on the ground - they only care about the whales' handle anyways, so why bother with the po' trash that shows up - is hot dog money that big of a deal?

I care about you Tom....as I care about everyone that bets on our product. I'm also far from the only one.

Handle matters because it fuels purses, especially without slot revenue, so it is essential to keeping the ecosystem going.

[aaron]

I am just glad we have racing during these difficult times.I hope all the people who put on the show stay healthy and well.

[o_crunk]

Originally Posted by the little guy

What a younger bar crowd on Caroline Street has to do with us racing, at least this year if not any year, I will never understand, but then again, we have always been a convenient scapegoat, especially from some specific outlets. People were flocking to the bar scene here before we began racing this Summer and our presence did not affect that materially, if at all.

There are people posting on this very forum asking about what bars are open and where they can bet when they get into town. NYRA themselves have been pushing people to their preferred in-town outlets for simulcasting while visiting Saratoga. Is it all NYRA's fault? Of course not. But let's be a little more realistic about what's going on. NYRA didn't have an easy decision to make, I get it. Me personally, I think an elevated risk averse approach is the right one - you have racing working fine downstate. Why mess with it? The downside risk is significant.

Originally Posted by the little guy

I know you are a extremely bright guy, but you shouldn't ignore the field size we had at Belmont for much of the meet, and particularly the four 11 race cards you referenced in a Tweet that was quoted here compared to the field size we had this weekend. We both look at handle numbers quite a bit and I have trouble believing that you objectively feel we would have been anywhere close to this past weekend's $80 million four day handle had these same cards been run at Belmont. Even $60 million seems unlikely.

Field size. The one Saturday at BEL they handled $27.6M (July 4th) had field size of 8, that was their highest non-Belmont Stakes handle day and their lowest Saturday field size as well. That's an extra, what, half a horse over this past Saturday? I don't think that's as compelling an argument as no DMR. Handle capacity is what it is. On any given Saturday, you could have literally 200 races of 6 horse fields and it's going to handle the same as 100 races of 8 horse fields. This past Saturday overall handle was right where it would be with everything pre-covid. People will bet on alpacas if they were racing.

Originally Posted by the little guy

The one week of racing at Keeneland, as I'm sure you know, had a very deleterious affect on us, and likely will for probably the entire first book ( which encompasses three weeks ). Hopefully that will mitigate in early August. Churchill running Derby week the final week will hurt as well. However, other factors have worked in our favor ( particularly at Belmont ) so for us to complain about one while ignoring the other would also be misguided.

Regardless, I always appreciate your insights ( truly ). Thanks. Hope you're well.

I really have no idea what effect KEE running will have on the horse population. I'm basing my assessment on what other trainers have publicly said. If you've got a lower level claimer and you stable at BEL and didn't come up to SAR, you've got a lot more options than you do if you stabled up north. Stakes horses are in short supply everywhere. The claimers is where the bread is buttered handle generating purses.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

There are people posting on this very forum asking about what bars are open and where they can bet when they get into town. NYRA themselves have been pushing people to their preferred in-town outlets for simulcasting while visiting Saratoga. Is it all NYRA's fault? Of course not. But let's be a little more realistic about what's going on. NYRA didn't have an easy decision to make, I get it. Me personally, I think an elevated risk averse approach is the right one - you have racing working fine downstate. Why mess with it? The downside risk is significant.



Field size. The one Saturday at BEL they handled $27.6M (July 4th) had field size of 8, that was their highest non-Belmont Stakes handle day and their lowest Saturday field size as well. That's an extra, what, half a horse over this past Saturday? I don't think that's as compelling an argument as no DMR. Handle capacity is what it is. On any given Saturday, you could have literally 200 races of 6 horse fields and it's going to handle the same as 100 races of 8 horse fields. This past Saturday overall handle was right where it would be with everything pre-covid. People will bet on alpacas if they were racing.



I really have no idea what effect KEE running will have on the horse population. I'm basing my assessment on what other trainers have publicly said. If you've got a lower level claimer and you stable at BEL and didn't come up to SAR, you've got a lot more options than you do if you stabled up north. Stakes horses are in short supply everywhere. The claimers is where the bread is buttered handle generating purses.

The majority of workers show up well before the meet, this year it was early June, and there has been no appreciable difference in Covid positives in Saratoga County in that time period. The issue has been downtown at night, not a smattering of fans in a few spots during the race day. This issue existed before this weekend, it just wasn't reported on for whatever reasons. Like you, I hope this doesn't become a problem. I know that I have been laying low, as have my co-workers.

One half a horse a race on an 11 race card could easily result in at least a 5% increase in handle. As far as Saratoga being flat to last year this past Saturday, I have a hard time believing we actually disagree that without a 14 race Haskell card, as was the case last year, we would not have been up at least 10%, if not more.

[o_crunk]

Originally Posted by the little guy

The majority of workers show up well before the meet, this year it was early June, and there has been no appreciable difference in Covid positives in Saratoga County in that time period. The issue has been downtown at night, not a smattering of fans in a few spots during the race day. This issue existed before this weekend, it just wasn't reported on for whatever reasons. Like you, I hope this doesn't become a problem. I know that I have been laying low, as have my co-workers.

One half a horse a race on an 11 race card could easily result in at least a 5% increase in handle. As far as Saratoga being flat to last year this past Saturday, I have a hard time believing we actually disagree that without a 14 race Haskell card, as was the case last year, we would not have been up at least 10%, if not more.

I don't question that NYRA is doing the right thing. I do question the behavior of people in general. I was up there last week, stopped in for lunch on my way to Sacandaga Lake. I was shocked to see people dining indoors. I was shocked to see people packed inside into bars. All this during daylight hours. This isn't just a Saratoga issue. I saw it throughout the area. It's a bad combination and I hope people who come to visit do the right thing as this is still an area that's had relatively low prevalence.

Without the Haskell, SAR would've handled $30M easily and probably a bit more too. That's kind of what I'm trying to say. Any given Saturday, there will be $60M to $70M bet on t-breds in the US. It's simply a matter of how the pie gets sliced with the product mix on offer. SAR has the highest market share of any US track. Last year, when they ran 44 cents of every dollar bet was on their product. BEL this past meet increased their market share to 33% from 21%. Yes, it helps that number that there was no Triple Crown. If they ran the same stakes schedule at BEL for SAR, they might have increased some of the field sizes at the margin, which would make it closer than many think. I don't know. I don't think it's a simple slam dunk. There's been some wacky handle things happening of late and one overlooked feature of SAR is that Kentucky and Florida (and now, to an extent, even California), don't put up much competition during July and August. My point is - Belmont this spring showed they could reach SAR level handle under the right circumstances. I guess time will tell but I'm pretty confident it would not have been a handle bloodbath if they stayed downstate.

[the little guy]

I don't recall anyone saying it would have been a handle bloodbath....except that is where the racing at Aqueduct does enter the discussion. That would certainly have been detrimental to handle, and would have had to have occurred if we did not come to Saratoga and continued racing.

[cj]

I wonder if someday racetracks will report revenue from handle instead of just handle numbers which in today's climate don't mean much.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Rarely does one's point get proven so quickly and obviously:-)

Anyone that actually thinks the handle at Belmont with the same cards we just ran at Saratoga would be even close to the $80 million handled for four days is, well, you know.....

Also, and this will be obvious to all save one epic tome deliverer.....we couldn't have run at Belmont all Summer, as the turf courses could not have taken the endless use, so we would have moved to Aqueduct. Maybe the David Foster Wallace ( not in quality but in quantity ) of PA can tell us how that would have worked out....though I think most are praying he doesn't try.

You're a NYRA guy. I'm an inconvenient truth teller. Sorry that upsets you when my views conflict with decisions made by NYRA.

I said on day 1 the way better reason for going to SAR was the turf course issue. There's no disagreement on that. So just say that and stop.

I was correct from the start that a lot of big names didn't want to go and NYRA was overestimating the value of the brand given the situation. The value of the Saratoga brand has been diminished this year due to the town, on track attendance, fears etc..

O'Crunk has been generous enough to analyze the data daily on Twitter and demonstrated how the money was flowing.

Belmont just did monstrous all sources handle with much lower quality racing than Saratoga will have now.

Saratoga will do very well. Handle will be up and probably higher than Belmont would have been with the same Saratoga cards, but not as much as you think. If Belmont was running mid week minor stakes, the Travers, Woodward, Whitney, Test, Alabama, etc... and other huge cards with slightly larger fields than you will get at Saratoga it would have blown the doors off the typical Belmont meet and done way more than the super successful spring meet.

Was it worth pissing some people off that were struggling to make ends meet because of the lock down when it was going to cost them even more to go to SAR?

It's a legit question. I lot of trainers said no, but really had no option. That's why I disagreed too.

[GMB@BP]

It will be interesting with other sports betting coming back on on line if we see much change in the handle numbers.