Pick 5 Base Minimum

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Andy, with all respect, you aren't in the management in NYRA. What you do there, in broad terms, is public information.

So I described your position accurately- you aren't, for instance, privy to the internal e-mails of senior NYRA management. On the other hand, you are likely to know more about NYRA management that a pure outsider.

Now notice, I said this (and have now said it twice). You haven't denied it. "You have absolutely no idea what I do or don't know" is not a denial.

If you think I misdescribed your position, you can obviously say what your actual position is. A non-denial denial means I correctly described it.

Just one time, admit when you are wrong. It couldn't hurt. It also would have taken a LOT less time than this unnecessary BS.

[rastajenk]

Ha! As Ethan Edwards would say, "That'll be the day."

[Robert Fischer]

I like lower minimums, for multi-horse bets.


Pros = less randomness, better bet-size proportion relative to my bankroll

Cons = less opportunities to 'scoop' most/all of a pool

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Nope. The reason most businesses fail is because capitalism runs on creative destruction. Most small businesses have to fail, to create the competition that allows a few to succeed.

Your comment is like saying "if all gamblers gambled rationally, everyone would win". Nope. Only a small percentage CAN win, due to the mathematics that govern the process. So if everyone gets more intelligent, the same percentage still has to lose.

The encyclopedic knowledge of attorneys never ceases to amaze me.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The encyclopedic knowledge of attorneys never ceases to amaze me.

Ultimately, it is becoming clearer and clearer that he is just trolling. To be fair, he's damn good at it!

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Ultimately, it is becoming clearer and clearer that he is just trolling. To be fair, he's damn good at it!

I think you give him too much credit. IMO...he is being deadly serious.

[the little guy]

On another note, given the Pick-3 minimum at NYRA still remains at $1, have those payoffs changed over the same time period as the trifecta study?

The tri pool is significantly higher than the Pick-3, so likely more efficient, but still might be worth checking ( by someone other than me ).

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Nope. The reason most businesses fail is because capitalism runs on creative destruction. Most small businesses have to fail, to create the competition that allows a few to succeed.

Your comment is like saying "if all gamblers gambled rationally, everyone would win". Nope. Only a small percentage CAN win, due to the mathematics that govern the process. So if everyone gets more intelligent, the same percentage still has to lose.

I see you skipped economics in school.
l
Legal gambling is a negative sum game for the bettors. To use that as a comparison of capitalism is ridiculous. Capital is not finite it can grow and shrink, but over time it has grown significantly. So the opposite of a negative sum game.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I see you skipped economics in school.
l
Legal gambling is a negative sum game for the bettors. To use that as a comparison of capitalism is ridiculous. Capital is not finite it can grow and shrink, but over time it has grown significantly. So the opposite of a negative sum game.

There must be something wrong in your above hypothesis. Past history indicates that the chances of dilanesp being wrong on this board are practically nil.

[o_crunk]

Originally Posted by the little guy

On another note, given the Pick-3 minimum at NYRA still remains at $1, have those payoffs changed over the same time period as the trifecta study?

The tri pool is significantly higher than the Pick-3, so likely more efficient, but still might be worth checking ( by someone other than me ).

1/1/2007 - 10/18/2013
NYRA P3
Total bets - 11,661
Average Pool - $65,933.28
Avg Payoff - $316.09
Median Payoff - $103.50
Average Total Squares - 489
Median Total Squares - 441

10/19/2013 - 11/21/2019
NYRA P3
Total bets - 10,265
Average Pool - $67,178.90
Avg Payoff - $296.80
Median Payoff - $101.00
Average Total Squares - 449
Median Total Squares - 392

Total squares is basically accounting for field size. It's how much it would cost to buy the wager in its entirety.

When accounting for total squares in the comp, the payoffs differences are pretty much marginal, perhaps even more now than they were then.

I don't know if there's been takeout reductions during this time. Pool size has increased similarly to total per race handle at NYRA.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There must be something wrong in your above hypothesis. Past history indicates that the chances of dilanesp being wrong on this board are practically nil.

I always thought that the first unwritten rule of "business" is to admit when you are wrong and fix it asap.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I see you skipped economics in school.
l
Legal gambling is a negative sum game for the bettors. To use that as a comparison of capitalism is ridiculous. Capital is not finite it can grow and shrink, but over time it has grown significantly. So the opposite of a negative sum game.

For most entrepreneurs, capitalism is also a negative sum game for them.

Indeed, I did take a fair number of business classes as an undergrad (not enough to make me an expert, though!), and what I can remember from it is this- an "economic profit" includes fair compensation to the entrepreneur. And if you measure "economic profit" rather than on the books profit, the vast, vast, vast majority of new businesses must always fail.

And that will be true even if everyone learns to be a better business person. Just like with gambling. The pie can grow, but it can only grow through a sort of survival of the fittest competition in which many businesses fail.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Just one time, admit when you are wrong. It couldn't hurt. It also would have taken a LOT less time than this unnecessary BS.

Would you like to tell us your involvement in NYRA management? Because if you actually said something that established I was wrong, I would surely admit it. (You have forgotten, but I admitted I was wrong about FCC getting involved in the whole Marlboro Cup thing.)

But I have now twice said "you aren't in NYRA management and aren't privy to their conversations", and you have twice not denied that while proclaiming how wrong I am.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

(You have forgotten, but I admitted I was wrong about FCC getting involved in the whole Marlboro Cup thing.)

Not in the big *** fans thread, you didn't...

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

For most entrepreneurs, capitalism is also a negative sum game for them.

Indeed, I did take a fair number of business classes as an undergrad (not enough to make me an expert, though!), and what I can remember from it is this- an "economic profit" includes fair compensation to the entrepreneur. And if you measure "economic profit" rather than on the books profit, the vast, vast, vast majority of new businesses must always fail.

And that will be true even if everyone learns to be a better business person. Just like with gambling. The pie can grow, but it can only grow through a sort of survival of the fittest competition in which many businesses fail.

Your going to die on your sword with that gambling comparison, aren't you?

I have read a lot of Econ books but have never seen a statement saying that a vast majority of new businesses must fail. Please give me the cite on that so I can get current.