Gallop Out

[soflant]

I like to start a discussion about after the race gallop out.
As a consensus how many handicappers out there feel the gallop out is a significant factor in determining how the horse will run in it's next race and why? Thanks for all of the output.

[capitalman]

I incorporate gallop outs when handicapping maiden races. Obviously, mixed results, but I've hit some pretty good prices on maidens who galloped out well. The best part about gallop outs is they are not in the past performances.

Here's an example of my most recent major score incorporating gallop outs into handicapping a maiden race:

February 2nd Oaklawn's 1st race. It was a maiden special weight race for 3 YO fillies at 1 1/16. 5 of the 9 fillies were returning from a 12/31 race at the same distance. Looking at the past performances, one would see that the following fillies were coming from that race. The prior race they had finished 2nd,3rd,4th,6th & 7th. The favorite was coming from a different race, but the 2nd & 3rd finishers from that race were 2nd & 3rd choices.

When I watched the replay of the race, one filly stood out. She had the 11 post in the race, showed speed while wide racing 3rd getting within half a length at one point. She then faded in the stretch finishing 7th of 12, beaten 11 lengths. She finished the race the worst of the 5 fillies who were coming back. When the race passed the finish line I noticed her rallying past the wire. My notes were "Best gallop out of the returnees". Even though she had finished 7th, beaten by the other 4 horses coming back in this race, she was clearly the most impressive. After her race, one would expect her to continue to retreat, but instead she ran better past the wire than any of the other returning fillies. I bet the race early and did some other things before turning on the race a couple of minutes before it started. To my surprise, she was 24/1. I never expected those odds. The race went off, she now had a much more favorable post, #5. She was 2nd early then took over by the half mile call & never looked back. In Just My Heels won by 2.5 lengths, never in doubt. She paid $51.40 and the exacta paid $161.60 for $1.

[Ruffian1]

This can indeed be useful. Just beware of the occasional horse that pulls up just past the wire every time. Some just do.
It can look like they are in distress and sometimes they are. However, you do see occasionally that a particular horse does it every time. And it seems most of those that indeed do, win often.
Simply put, they know where the wire is and they have made a habit of it or learned the habit from pulling up daily while training in the same place.
GL.

[Robert Fischer]

I like to see some subtle stuff where the form was darkened by the flow of the race.

Say no one was making up ground, closing off a moderate/slow pace? Our horse came from near last to run fourth... The other contenders had forward trips...

Those are the beginnings of a gallop-out, that I want to compare different horse's comparisons. That's where if you find an example who was genuinely against the grain, the gallop out may offer more than face value.

If there's no bias and discernable flow, you don't want to upgrade horses for being plodders or closers.

[denniswilliams]

I play Hong Kong, which offers some fairly comprehensive race replay perspectives:


1-Race Replay (pan shot)
2-Patrol Replay (headon)
3-Leading Horse (focusing on leader(s))
4-Aerial Virtual Replay (overhead concoction)


&



5-Pass thru Analysis (mid stretch to past the 1st turn gallop out)


Use 1,2,4 all the time


Use 3 on occasion


Never use 5 - waste of time.

[castaway01]

I am not saying you shouldn't use it, but like judging what a horse looks like just from video, I would be wary of putting much stock into two seconds of video after a race of a horse galloping out. If you're there live, maybe that's something different, but it's tough to be there live for every race these days.

Personally I'd be doing a lot more hypothetical wagering than real money with that info until I proved to myself that my opinion meant something.

[Robert Fischer]

with the vast majority of these things...

It don't pay very much value, when truth is known by all. Usually it's just a matter of how much you will 'lose' on those types of wagers...

Without an edge in opinion, even there you don't want to be making significant wagers.

If he's favorite because of gallop-out probably should be an auto bet-against if he has other certain weaknesses.

If you picked him because of gallop-out, and now he's favorite because of gallop-out, you pretty much auto-auto-Toss him, unless you can string legs or placings to vulnerable chalk.


So you want something to happen in the gallop-out...


you want there to be a story about why it happened...

and you want to see that your focus horse is against the grain and/or bias...

Hopefully he closed against the grain/bias or hopefully he outlasted the other pace while going too fast up front (in that case you'd be looking at the gallop-out and considering it, extrapolating it, even if the horse was basically pulled up before the turn ('zero' gallop out was how good? under these circumstances?).

the scenario described prior (said horse actual closing ground after the finish line and galloped-out on the 'Lead' (which is why half of us in the thread here probably 'saw' the horse at all)).

You still may not have found any game-changing value; but you are running through the check lists and seeing the various scenarios and options. If it's not there after you try on a few of the tactics, you move on to the next one. Can't make something out of nothing.

[Robert Fischer]

here's an example that is not ground-breaking but anyone beginning at gallop-outs would probably want to know if they were on the right track...

Justify's win over Gronkowski in the 2018 Belmont;

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So Justify breaks like a bat outta hell, and is on a relatively fast pace (nothing insane or unfathomable just relatively fast, and GRONK starting out relaxed... - Gronk didn't get a dream trip either, but it was the easier of the two trips - even if you take a little credit away from Justify for using his early pace and his post position.)

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[bisket]

I don't wager based on a gallop out. I really only pay attention when I think a horse might be a little short for todays race, and it's a route. The horse relaxes for the opening fractions and makes a nice run to finish within a few lengths of the leader or leading group. Then continues around the clubhouse turn at a stiff gallop. I'll make note that the race should set him up for a forward move next out. It's important that the horse finishes with the leading group or within a few lengths. He'll stand to improve a few lengths next out. I've been really busy at work, and I didn't have time to handicap the race. I really liked Senor Buscador in the Saudi race last out. He'd been knocking on the door in all of his recent races. I felt the pace would set him up to make up those few lengths he needed. Watching how he finished his last few races was an indication to a win at plus odds when the race set up for him. This analysis is similar to a gallop out. bummer I didn't wager

[fast4522]

At one time long ago I was tight with the Ralph Politano barn at Rockingham Park. I learned to read the racing form from his brother who befriended myself and my girlfriend. Several races were viewed by us as I was instructed what to look for and make some notes. Specifically during the race looking at the horse who may have been a contender "reaching out" and when a charge stops reaching out. I never forgot what to look for and what lessons I got out of sitting with these people in the clubhouse.

[thebeacondeacon]

This is one factor upon which I base my choice on whether or not to follow a track.

Some, like Santa Anita, have excellent post-race video coverage, where they monitor the gallop out, covering all of the field, well past the clubhouse turn. Others only focus on the top finisher or two, barely past the finish line.

Guess which tracks get my action.

[Robert Fischer]

Baffert as usual is getting some attention in our racing section.

Like many other top trainers, he has familiar patterns of success that suit his style & strengths.

Example; may see his 'best' stride just as he hits the finish line. Expect big gallop-outs. No surprise should he gallop-out 2-4f half way around again. Lack of that gallop-out should be considered a Missing piece. Another trainer may have completely different style, and horses that gallop-out fairly well, yet do nearly
all their peak running within typical performance patterns rather than anything notable in regards to gallop-outs.

[ranchwest]

Do you have a cutoff point as far as how many days back you will consider a gallop out?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Do you have a cutoff point as far as how many days back you will consider a gallop out?

recency + your appraisal of gallop-outs

If there isn't recency, then you also aren't getting any value attempting to evaluate 'form'.

If a specific horse has red flags, then the price had better be generous.