NFL playoffs

[Half Smoke]

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per the link (I verified at the FanDuel site) - to win SB - the best line on each -

9ers +150
Ravens +190
Chiefs +440
Lions +750

the line seems very high on Chiefs
if I was a betting man which I'm not -
I would hedge thinking Lions very unlikely and eliminating them - just have to beat 9ers who haven't seemed really strong to me


so for example - $100 to win on Chiefs

$175 to win on Ravens

if Chiefs win the profit is $265

if Ravens win the profit is $232


https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/


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[Half Smoke]

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too late to edit -

just realized above post is not a good deal

Ravens play Chiefs so prolly a better deal to just bet on winner against prolly 9ers

still think Chiefs line is very high and a great deal at +440

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[wiretowire68]

this has nothing to do with betting on the play-off games but in terms of analysis of the teams that have been beat and the spreads along with the O/U. First of all, the biggest disappointment..obviously the Cowboys but where they really? Look at their last 3 games, Buffalo walloped them, Miami beat them easily and they barely squeaked by Detroit. So they were not playing good football heading in to the game and like many times as a coach both Dan and Mike got outcoached. Mr. McCarthy remember, he took the Packers to 4 NFC Championship games. 1 with Brett Favre... losing to the Giants at home. 2. Losing to the Seahawks ..poor special teams. and will not count this loss because they were extremely injured offensively and Aaron Rogers carried the team on their back to bowing out to Atlanta but they did score points but defensively bad. Also, if I recall the year they went 15-1 and again beaten by the Giants at home...outcoached again.

Dan Quinn, ok will give him the nod as the D coach with the Seahawks and their superior teams, although with the talent they amassed... However, this was the man who also coached the Atlanta Falcons who gave up the biggest deficit to Brady and Co.. and his O.C. was Mike Shanahan and they had confidence to choose to throw the ball late in the game instead of just running the football and kicking a field goal instead of turning themselves into Super Bowl champs but to be known as the team that blew it.


So my rant basically is... OUTCOACHED...EVERY TIME. Funny, my team... Packers Fan whole life and Matt LaFleur who I like but boy he has issues too...clock management...running the ball... Do NFL head coaches have people checking the game clock.... Did Lafleur realize in the last sequence when they were driving..that he chose to throw the ball twice in their possession causing the clock to stop... if he runs the ball forcing timeouts or running the clock down... perhaps even if the kid misses the field goal or makes it... less time on the clock thus leaving all kinds of time for Shanahan to take his team down the field, although perhaps they may have been a few yard closer, the kick angle changes ....who knows.. and again... the clock management at the end of the game .... ????????

The 49ers got their real bad game out of their system hopefully for their sake. They may beat Detroit, but it will be their defense and not their offense. As far as the Bills and whoever predicted them beating Kansas City... come on, they had 9 regulars on Defense and they played a great game.. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches ever and he has two hall of famers on Offense.. Hint: to the Bills, time to bring in wide receiver with size... P.S. I think do not count out K.C. but Baltimore plays Defense... and are healthy... I predicted early on Baltimore would win the Super Bowl...why Head Coaching pedigree. ...

[Half Smoke]

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very nice post from wiretowire68 just above

one more thing from me -

9ers seem to me to be much overrated at +150

not not at all worth the smallish payout


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[Half Smoke]

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also like the Lions about +275 to beat the 9ers straight up

the Lions, who are not considered a real contender by many are now 14-5 and were 12-5 in the regular season

only the Ravens had a better record

I'm done now - no more from me for a while

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[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by wiretowire68

The 49ers got their real bad game out of their system hopefully for their sake. They may beat Detroit, but it will be their defense and not their offense....

The key will be the availability of WR Deebo Samuel, the offense is not the same without him. He is also a running threat, holds the season record for most rushing touchdowns by a WR. It is said he is 50-50 to play Sunday.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.
per the link (I verified at the FanDuel site) - to win SB - the best line on each -

9ers +150
Ravens +190
Chiefs +440
Lions +750

the line seems very high on Chiefs
if I was a betting man which I'm not -
I would hedge thinking Lions very unlikely and eliminating them - just have to beat 9ers who haven't seemed really strong to me


so for example - $100 to win on Chiefs

$175 to win on Ravens

if Chiefs win the profit is $265

if Ravens win the profit is $232


https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/


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Vegas Insider sucks now, it is over the top littered with ads, a lot of information they posted is no longer available. The site used to be decent.
I don't expect a free lunch, but that place is ridiculous, way more ads and less information. I have a feeling the original owner sold out. What I miss is they had every NBA and NFL teams results game by game and it showed the spread. You definitely could pick out trends.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

What I miss is they had every NBA and NFL teams results game by game and it showed the spread. You definitely could pick out trends.

you can get that on covers.com - see link
they miss out on a few details sometimes in the older games
but basically pretty good imho
they even show the line movement at various books


https://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/ma...ate=2024-01-20


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[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

you can get that on covers.com - see link
they miss out on a few details sometimes in the older games
but basically pretty good imho
they even show the line movement at various books


https://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/ma...ate=2024-01-20


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Thanks so much!!! I actually kept that info pre internet and it gave me a big edge.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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very nice post from wiretowire68 just above

one more thing from me -

9ers seem to me to be much overrated at +150

not not at all worth the smallish payout


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I went to the casino in Baltimore the other day and their odds were even lower than that at+145. I thought they would have been slightly higher.

[Ahorsewithnoname]

I use scoresandodds.com for betting lines.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

I fully believe the Ravens are the better team than the Chiefs, but damn do they choke on the big stage like this. Staying away from that one.

49ers are supremely more talented than the Lions. I'll be surprised if that game isn't a blowout.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

I fully believe the Ravens are the better team than the Chiefs, but damn do they choke on the big stage like this. Staying away from that one.

49ers are supremely more talented than the Lions. I'll be surprised if that game isn't a blowout.

The Chiefs should not have beat the Bills, they got a lot of help from the Bills receivers dropping 100+ yards of passes. Josh Allen made a lot of key first downs with his legs, what is Lamar Jackson going to do to them?

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

I fully believe the Ravens are the better team than the Chiefs, but damn do they choke on the big stage like this. Staying away from that one.

49ers are supremely more talented than the Lions. I'll be surprised if that game isn't a blowout.

So far you called that one, back to back unnecessary roughness penalties gave the Chiefs a field goal before the half. Lamar 5-12 for a measly 67 yards and he lost a fumble. As usual Mahomes steps up in big games and Lamar steps down.

[Robert Fischer]

Chiefs on the verge of winning this game.