Bill Mott is flush this year

[JustRalph]

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...hidden-scroll/

Going to be fun to watch

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...hidden-scroll/

Going to be fun to watch

That's cool. Also mentioned Tacitus in the article.

He's also for owner Juddmonte Farms. Kicking myself after not using Hidden Scroll @ 8-1 for a hot Mott owner/trainer (Tacitus, Hofburg, etc..).

I think in the other thread I was guessing "Holy Bull"..., but that stakes comes up a bit too soon. Maybe they'll look for an allowance and wait until the Fountain of Youth? Who knows... it's up to the horse to tell them and their preference.

[JustRalph]

When I think Triple Crown, I don’t think Mott....

[reckless]

When I think Triple Crown, I don’t think Mott....

Bill Mott's main owners breed and buy horses specifically with the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races in mind. Mott knows that and Hofburg was the first clue to Mott's new and practical way of thinking.

In the past Mott simply avoided the Derby out of hand. I believe that Mott has had a change of heart. The game has changed and so has he, as I see it.

If Hidden Scroll passes the next test or two you can go to the bank Mott will be there in Louisville.

Many horse players, some relatively sharp handicappers and most journalists still adhere to decades-old truisms that often prove incorrect if not just plain silly.

Because of all this, Hidden Scroll could be a relatively good price come Derby time -- unless the horse proves his debut really was not a fluke and is indeed a freak.

Of course, we have a lot of racing to come with plenty of time to sort out the contenders from the pretenders.

It makes for good talk and remains fun for me.

[ultracapper]

I believe we are going to find, in the very near future, that Justify was freakier than we ever thought. For over a century getting a young horse some seasoning and some experience was the way to win a mile and a quarter race in mid-spring. Now, many will try to bring a lightly raced, undefeated wanderkind to the KD, and my prediction is, for the most part, they will crash and burn, maybe even ruined long term.

I'll be looking for the colts with 8-3-2-2 records with Gr1 placings at multiple tracks before I'll be betting on a 9/5, 3-3-0-0 colt with a Mdn, Alw, and a Gr1 win, all in his backyard with the neighborhood kids, to his credit.

It will be proven very soon that Justify was the exception rather than a new, improved model.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I believe we are going to find, in the very near future, that Justify was freakier than we ever thought. For over a century getting a young horse some seasoning and some experience was the way to win a mile and a quarter race in mid-spring. Now, many will try to bring a lightly raced, undefeated wanderkind to the KD, and my prediction is, for the most part, they will crash and burn, maybe even ruined long term.

I'll be looking for the colts with 8-3-2-2 records with Gr1 placings at multiple tracks before I'll be betting on a 9/5, 3-3-0-0 colt with a Mdn, Alw, and a Gr1 win, all in his backyard with the neighborhood kids, to his credit.

It will be proven very soon that Justify was the exception rather than a new, improved model.

I disagree.

As the nature of the racehorse changes so should the “model.” The stout, late developing, experienced and seasoned type is slowly exiting the scene giving way to the fragile, early developing, lightly raced speed type; “type displacement.” This fragile precocious speed type isn’t suited for the rigors of the long two and three-year-old Triple Crown campaign so we’ll find more contenders coming in w/fewer races.

I think the overall "pattern of development" is critical for this new type and Baffert has this pattern figured out: A demanding, rigorous and stressful series of ascending works interspersed with races and works solely designed to fit the Triple Crown campaign - one small hiccup, one bad break from the gate, one bad race can derail a campaign. After the Belmont Stakes, off to stud.

[ultracapper]

We'll see how sold even Baffert is on the "Justify model" sooner than later. Though not a "rigorous" pre-derby regimen, American Pharoah did begin his career in August, ran 3 times as a 2 year old, and had Gr1 wins at 3 different tracks before the KD, granted 2 of the tracks are on the same circuit. He must have known AP was special before he ever took the track as he had no hesitation entering him in a Gr1 as a beaten maiden, so it wasn't the case of "look what we have here, lets put him away and blast into the KD off works and a couple of races". There was a reason he didn't save AP for the Bing Crosby meet, or even Santa Anita winter.

Historically, 5 races is lightly raced before the KD. 3 is ridiculous.

[ultracapper]

The more I think about it, the more I have to agree with Blenheim. I had never put that much thought into it until now, and even though AP was unveiled well before Justify was from a career standpoint, it was, theoretically, pretty much the same program.

It will be interesting to see if it's enough of a foundation to get, and stay, fully cranked for 3 races of that caliber.

If Justify finishes 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, does he have enough points to qualify for a start in the KD? I'm not sure what 2nd is worth, and what it took to get in last year.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

The more I think about it, the more I have to agree with Blenheim. I had never put that much thought into it until now, and even though AP was unveiled well before Justify was from a career standpoint, it was, theoretically, pretty much the same program.

It will be interesting to see if it's enough of a foundation to get, and stay, fully cranked for 3 races of that caliber.

If Justify finishes 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, does he have enough points to qualify for a start in the KD? I'm not sure what 2nd is worth, and what it took to get in last year.

Years ago, Ainslie used the term "swifty", for the nicely bred colt w/major connections and the leading trainer. I think that's what we have for the most part anymore, these swiftys . . . but the swiftys of Ainslie's time won as a 2yo and then went on to win as a 3yo, 4yo and 5yo, whereas the swifty we have today, they win two maybe three races as a 2yo, then if all goes well they go on to win three, maybe four races as a 3yo; after that, time is luck.

We had stamina, traded it in for speed and got a horse that runs 7 times instead of 70 times. I wonder, was the trade worth it?

[f2tornado]

I don't know. I think it boils down more to horses getting studded out early for the money. Why run American Pharoah at age 4 for a million dollar purse when he can knock up a few mares for the same money without the racing risk?

The last five Derby renewals featured winners that were running in the top three at every call around the track. If that "model" continues, put your Derby money on a horse that is going to be in the front third of the field before the first call.