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Old 02-05-2019, 12:28 AM   #46
Niko
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Jeff Platt did some very interesting research in this area which I found very helpful. Essentially, place odds are very different than win odds and should be treated accordingly.

The favorite is 32% to win, 20% to place. The 4th favorite is 17% to win, 16% to place. At face value, the favorite has a 52% chance to come in first and second and the 4th favorite only 33%. But, the place odds are much closer, 20% compared to 16%. If the favorite doesn't run their best race, their chances of running second aren't improved relative to the win slot. The 4th or 5th choice may not be good enough to make a winning bid and thus, they have a better chance of picking up the pieces and coming in second. Makes sense after seeing the numbers.

My take - you can't use win odds for determining an overlay in the second spot ...or 3rd, 4th.

That said, lower-priced combinations do seem to be underplayed compared to two longshots in the first two spots.

Would like to hear the take of more successful players.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:00 AM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Niko View Post
Jeff Platt did some very interesting research in this area which I found very helpful. Essentially, place odds are very different than win odds and should be treated accordingly.

The favorite is 32% to win, 20% to place. The 4th favorite is 17% to win, 16% to place. At face value, the favorite has a 52% chance to come in first and second and the 4th favorite only 33%. But, the place odds are much closer, 20% compared to 16%. If the favorite doesn't run their best race, their chances of running second aren't improved relative to the win slot. The 4th or 5th choice may not be good enough to make a winning bid and thus, they have a better chance of picking up the pieces and coming in second. Makes sense after seeing the numbers.

My take - you can't use win odds for determining an overlay in the second spot ...or 3rd, 4th.

That said, lower-priced combinations do seem to be underplayed compared to two longshots in the first two spots.

Would like to hear the take of more successful players.
There is mind boggling that the place percentage is that close between the winner and the 4th selection. I'm gonna have to check that out
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:37 AM   #48
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should have clarified, those aren't meant to be exact percentages. Just an example.
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Old 02-05-2019, 10:45 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by headhawg View Post
Jeff P has a couple of posts in the Holy Bull thread that you might find interesting.
I don't (usually)make the fulcrum one of my top A's, unless of course, it is, haha. There's also an old thread on here by someone who did a study showing the fulcrum pace horse was ITM 50% over a LOT of races, not sure how many. My point was occasionally, the fulcrum is a pace standout and the odds are very favorable, so it gets included in "some" of my plays, not all. Everything works some of the time, never all of the time; tote, speed/pace improvement, fulcrum, top class l.r., etc.-all get a look by me, in who to include. If I throw one out because of someone else's roi study, that's a decision to be made. My meaning was that for me, not including the fulcrum, is at my peril in exacta play. Others on here, say we should include closers in our exacta plays; while I don't have a closer angle, they often get included through some other factor. And they are often not a fulcrum qualifier in their last race only.
Handicapping races has changed so many times over the decades I'm playing, it's one of the attractions in that it keeps making us learn something new to be able to cash a decent ticket.
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Old 02-05-2019, 11:30 AM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Niko View Post
Jeff Platt did some very interesting research in this area which I found very helpful. Essentially, place odds are very different than win odds and should be treated accordingly.

The favorite is 32% to win, 20% to place. The 4th favorite is 17% to win, 16% to place. At face value, the favorite has a 52% chance to come in first and second and the 4th favorite only 33%. But, the place odds are much closer, 20% compared to 16%. If the favorite doesn't run their best race, their chances of running second aren't improved relative to the win slot. The 4th or 5th choice may not be good enough to make a winning bid and thus, they have a better chance of picking up the pieces and coming in second. Makes sense after seeing the numbers.

My take - you can't use win odds for determining an overlay in the second spot ...or 3rd, 4th.

That said, lower-priced combinations do seem to be underplayed compared to two longshots in the first two spots.

Would like to hear the take of more successful players.
Unless you are talking about 5 horse fields it is highly improbable for a 4th favorite to win 17% of the time. It's more like 10-11%.
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Old 02-05-2019, 12:39 PM   #51
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Let's eliminate any confusion...

This is what I have in my database, top four in the odds, thoroughbred only, for calendar year 2018:

Code:
**********************************************************************************
POST TIME FAVORITES, 2018 --
FINISH                            IMPACT
POSITION  PLAYS   COUNT      PCT   VALUE     Xth or Better
**********************************************************************************
1ST       40892   15223   0.3723  0.9847     1ST or better  015223/040892 = 0.3723
2ND       40892   8890    0.2174  0.575      2ND or better  024113/040892 = 0.5897
3RD       40892   5741    0.1404  0.3713     3RD or better  029854/040892 = 0.7301
4TH       40892   3912    0.0957  0.2531     4TH or better  033766/040892 = 0.8257
5TH       40892   2785    0.0681  0.1801     5TH or better  036551/040892 = 0.8938
6TH       40892   1929    0.0472  0.1248     6TH or better  038480/040892 = 0.9410
7TH       40892   1166    0.0285  0.0754     7TH or better  039646/040892 = 0.9695
8TH       40892   649     0.0159  0.0421     8TH or better  040295/040892 = 0.9854
9TH       40892   330     0.0081  0.0214     9TH or better  040625/040892 = 0.9935
10TH      40892   171     0.0042  0.0111    10TH or better  040796/040892 = 0.9977
11TH      40892   58      0.0014  0.0037    11TH or better  040854/040892 = 0.9991
12TH      40892   34      0.0008  0.0021    12TH or better  040888/040892 = 0.9999
13TH      40892   1       0       0         13TH or better  040889/040892 = 0.9999
14TH      40892   3       0.0001  0.0003    14TH or better  040892/040892 = 1.0000
15TH      40892   0       0       0         15TH or better  040892/040892 = 1.0000
16TH      40892   0       0       0         16TH or better  040892/040892 = 1.0000
17TH      40892   0       0       0         17TH or better  040892/040892 = 1.0000
18TH      40892   0       0       0         18TH or better  040892/040892 = 1.0000
19TH      40892   0       0       0         19TH or better  040892/040892 = 1.0000
20TH      40892   0       0       0         20TH or better  040892/040892 = 1.0000
**********************************************************************************


Code:
**********************************************************************************
SECOND CHOICE IN THE ODDS, 2018 --
FINISH                            IMPACT
POSITION  PLAYS   COUNT      PCT   VALUE     Xth or Better
**********************************************************************************
1ST       39342   8578    0.218   0.9914     1ST or better  008578/039342 = 0.2180
2ND       39342   8655    0.22    1.0005     2ND or better  017233/039342 = 0.4380
3RD       39342   6861    0.1744  0.7931     3RD or better  024094/039342 = 0.6124
4TH       39342   5233    0.133   0.6048     4TH or better  029327/039342 = 0.7454
5TH       39342   3893    0.099   0.4502     5TH or better  033220/039342 = 0.8444
6TH       39342   2629    0.0668  0.3038     6TH or better  035849/039342 = 0.9112
7TH       39342   1657    0.0421  0.1915     7TH or better  037506/039342 = 0.9533
8TH       39342   943     0.024   0.1091     8TH or better  038449/039342 = 0.9773
9TH       39342   479     0.0122  0.0555     9TH or better  038928/039342 = 0.9895
10TH      39342   250     0.0064  0.0291    10TH or better  039178/039342 = 0.9958
11TH      39342   107     0.0027  0.0123    11TH or better  039285/039342 = 0.9986
12TH      39342   44      0.0011  0.005     12TH or better  039329/039342 = 0.9997
13TH      39342   8       0.0002  0.0009    13TH or better  039337/039342 = 0.9999
14TH      39342   3       0.0001  0.0005    14TH or better  039340/039342 = 0.9999
15TH      39342   0       0       0         15TH or better  039340/039342 = 0.9999
16TH      39342   0       0       0         16TH or better  039340/039342 = 0.9999
17TH      39342   0       0       0         17TH or better  039340/039342 = 0.9999
18TH      39342   0       0       0         18TH or better  039340/039342 = 0.9999
19TH      39342   0       0       0         19TH or better  039340/039342 = 0.9999
20TH      39342   0       0       0         20TH or better  039340/039342 = 0.9999
**********************************************************************************




Code:
**********************************************************************************
THIRD CHOICE IN THE ODDS, 2018 --
FINISH                            IMPACT
POSITION  PLAYS   COUNT      PCT   VALUE     Xth or Better
**********************************************************************************
1ST       39239   5862    0.1494  0.9938     1ST or better  005862/039239 = 0.1494
2ND       39239   6968    0.1776  1.1814     2ND or better  012830/039239 = 0.3270
3RD       39239   7095    0.1808  1.2026     3RD or better  019925/039239 = 0.5078
4TH       39239   6203    0.1581  1.0517     4TH or better  026128/039239 = 0.6659
5TH       39239   4913    0.1252  0.8328     5TH or better  031041/039239 = 0.7911
6TH       39239   3740    0.0953  0.6339     6TH or better  034781/039239 = 0.8864
7TH       39239   2194    0.0559  0.3718     7TH or better  036975/039239 = 0.9423
8TH       39239   1223    0.0312  0.2075     8TH or better  038198/039239 = 0.9735
9TH       39239   606     0.0154  0.1024     9TH or better  038804/039239 = 0.9889
10TH      39239   276     0.007   0.0466    10TH or better  039080/039239 = 0.9959
11TH      39239   105     0.0027  0.018     11TH or better  039185/039239 = 0.9986
12TH      39239   40      0.001   0.0067    12TH or better  039225/039239 = 0.9996
13TH      39239   7       0.0002  0.0013    13TH or better  039232/039239 = 0.9998
14TH      39239   1       0       0         14TH or better  039233/039239 = 0.9998
15TH      39239   0       0       0         15TH or better  039233/039239 = 0.9998
16TH      39239   1       0       0         16TH or better  039234/039239 = 0.9999
17TH      39239   0       0       0         17TH or better  039234/039239 = 0.9999
18TH      39239   0       0       0         18TH or better  039234/039239 = 0.9999
19TH      39239   0       0       0         19TH or better  039234/039239 = 0.9999
20TH      39239   1       0       0         20TH or better  039235/039239 = 0.9999
**********************************************************************************



Code:
**********************************************************************************
FOURTH CHOICE IN THE ODDS, 2018 --
FINISH                            IMPACT
POSITION  PLAYS   COUNT      PCT   VALUE     Xth or Better
**********************************************************************************
1ST       39130   4055    0.1036  0.9951     1ST or better  004055/039130 = 0.1036
2ND       39130   5517    0.141   1.3543     2ND or better  009572/039130 = 0.2446
3RD       39130   6527    0.1668  1.6021     3RD or better  016099/039130 = 0.4114
4TH       39130   7013    0.1792  1.7212     4TH or better  023112/039130 = 0.5906
5TH       39130   5966    0.1525  1.4647     5TH or better  029078/039130 = 0.7431
6TH       39130   4482    0.1145  1.0998     6TH or better  033560/039130 = 0.8577
7TH       39130   2802    0.0716  0.6877     7TH or better  036362/039130 = 0.9293
8TH       39130   1434    0.0366  0.3515     8TH or better  037796/039130 = 0.9659
9TH       39130   792     0.0202  0.194      9TH or better  038588/039130 = 0.9861
10TH      39130   350     0.0089  0.0855    10TH or better  038938/039130 = 0.9951
11TH      39130   127     0.0032  0.0307    11TH or better  039065/039130 = 0.9983
12TH      39130   49      0.0013  0.0125    12TH or better  039114/039130 = 0.9996
13TH      39130   9       0.0002  0.0019    13TH or better  039123/039130 = 0.9998
14TH      39130   4       0.0001  0.001     14TH or better  039127/039130 = 0.9999
15TH      39130   0       0       0         15TH or better  039127/039130 = 0.9999
16TH      39130   0       0       0         16TH or better  039127/039130 = 0.9999
17TH      39130   0       0       0         17TH or better  039127/039130 = 0.9999
18TH      39130   0       0       0         18TH or better  039127/039130 = 0.9999
19TH      39130   0       0       0         19TH or better  039127/039130 = 0.9999
20TH      39130   0       0       0         20TH or better  039127/039130 = 0.9999
**********************************************************************************



How to read:

There are four tables: Post time favorites, second in the odds, third in the odds, and fourth in the odds.

Within the table for each odds category: The Plays column displays the total number of starters for that odds category. There is one row for each possible finish position. The Count column displays the total number of starters with a finish position matching that row. The PCT column shows the hit rate for that row. The Xth or Better column displays Count, Plays, and PCT hit rate for achieving an Xth or better finish position for that row.

Hope I managed to type most of that out in a way that makes sense,


-jp

.
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Old 02-05-2019, 12:46 PM   #52
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Software test

Ok heres what my software says for top 4
W P exact position..
A 32 22

B 19 20

C 18 15


D 11 14

Amazing the drop off is not so bad.. Not sure how to use this but Pretty interesting. I want to move my Exact to Tri plays as it was the better bet in Rays system by 3 POINTS...

Last edited by teddy; 02-05-2019 at 12:50 PM.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:03 PM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy View Post
Ok heres what my software says for top 4
W P exact position..
A 32 22

B 19 20

C 18 15


D 11 14

Amazing the drop off is not so bad.. Not sure how to use this but Pretty interesting. I want to move my Exact to Tri plays as it was the better bet in Rays system by 3 POINTS...
Using Jeff's numbers the drop off for the favorite goes from 37.2% to win to 34.6% to place. The 34.6% being computed from races excluding wins.
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Old 02-05-2019, 01:16 PM   #54
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Bottom-line, here's what you're up against when throwing out the top 4 out of the exactas..

Top 4 in Exacta %'s

Favorite- About 59%

2nd Chalk- About 44%

3rd Chalk- 32.7%

4th Chalk- Over 24%

That's a tall order to thread the needle through that haystack.
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Old 02-05-2019, 06:51 PM   #55
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Welll I tried the tri today and lost but exactas were up 1450 with rebates...


Tri didnt seem to pay that well when I did hit them...Usually barely broke even. Maybe I needed to use a b cd instead of ab/abcd/abcdef.

I think I like better to bet a $50 a/ bcd and reverse for 10.00 bcd/A

or crush a /bc for $100 ticket when Im confident.

Exacta just seems to fit better . I bet 5k on a tues... lol. I have a printout of my spot plays from htr and its deadly if you handicap the selections. Sometimes they are not playable and run up the track but if they look competitive they really fire... adding common sense to computer picks is a big edge. If you play the try with the a/bc/bcd you will pay 120.00 for the race but smash home a $20 tri ticket. Takes a large bankroll to play because you could be down to hitting under 10%.

Last edited by teddy; 02-05-2019 at 06:55 PM.
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Old 02-05-2019, 07:50 PM   #56
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Can somebody please explain REBATES to me? I'm almost embarrassed to ask because everyone seems to know what they are. Would this be the same as the WAGER REWARDS on tvg.com?
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Old 02-05-2019, 08:21 PM   #57
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Every exacts I bet the ads gives me back 9% win or lose. Because of how much I bet. 15 on tri and super. I bet you get swamped with offer now. Lots on here get a cut. Some guy cramer gets half a point for referring me.

Last edited by teddy; 02-05-2019 at 08:23 PM.
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Old 02-05-2019, 09:37 PM   #58
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small sample

If the winner is under 2 to one the exacta paid $22 on average in my small sample of 50 races. Most my winners are under 2 to one. I am going to test to see if I restrict my payoff to min. $22 I will do this on paper. Not changing my style since I am up 4 of 5 days.
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Old 02-07-2019, 01:12 AM   #59
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reverse

I am firmly conviced the bcd with a payoffs are almost allways close to fair value. I had the charlestown 5th race with 25 to one on top of 3/5. It paid $185. I would of thought a hundred. Public is not reversing. Old news to some but worth repeating. Hit rate will drop to 20% but you can boost by using cd/ab instead but I would bet more on cd/a.
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Old 02-07-2019, 07:18 PM   #60
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Killed it

Ok Im going to summarize what I have seen. With some great advice From Formula 2000 I was able to move my payoffs up dramatically.

Keying the chalk second pays way way more. If It is under even money you get a big bonus when it runs second. If it i 2 to one you get no bonus.
Playing my computer pics to place if they show they can hold on for second or are closers is a winner for me. Never play even money on top... unless its a horse you love. then bet to win.
also I had a 25 to one and a chalk and got paid almost double the expected.
Try that for a week.
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