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02-05-2019, 12:28 AM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,042
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Jeff Platt did some very interesting research in this area which I found very helpful. Essentially, place odds are very different than win odds and should be treated accordingly.
The favorite is 32% to win, 20% to place. The 4th favorite is 17% to win, 16% to place. At face value, the favorite has a 52% chance to come in first and second and the 4th favorite only 33%. But, the place odds are much closer, 20% compared to 16%. If the favorite doesn't run their best race, their chances of running second aren't improved relative to the win slot. The 4th or 5th choice may not be good enough to make a winning bid and thus, they have a better chance of picking up the pieces and coming in second. Makes sense after seeing the numbers.
My take - you can't use win odds for determining an overlay in the second spot ...or 3rd, 4th.
That said, lower-priced combinations do seem to be underplayed compared to two longshots in the first two spots.
Would like to hear the take of more successful players.
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02-05-2019, 09:00 AM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Niko
Jeff Platt did some very interesting research in this area which I found very helpful. Essentially, place odds are very different than win odds and should be treated accordingly.
The favorite is 32% to win, 20% to place. The 4th favorite is 17% to win, 16% to place. At face value, the favorite has a 52% chance to come in first and second and the 4th favorite only 33%. But, the place odds are much closer, 20% compared to 16%. If the favorite doesn't run their best race, their chances of running second aren't improved relative to the win slot. The 4th or 5th choice may not be good enough to make a winning bid and thus, they have a better chance of picking up the pieces and coming in second. Makes sense after seeing the numbers.
My take - you can't use win odds for determining an overlay in the second spot ...or 3rd, 4th.
That said, lower-priced combinations do seem to be underplayed compared to two longshots in the first two spots.
Would like to hear the take of more successful players.
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There is mind boggling that the place percentage is that close between the winner and the 4th selection. I'm gonna have to check that out
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02-05-2019, 09:37 AM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,042
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should have clarified, those aren't meant to be exact percentages. Just an example.
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02-05-2019, 10:45 AM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
Jeff P has a couple of posts in the Holy Bull thread that you might find interesting.
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I don't (usually)make the fulcrum one of my top A's, unless of course, it is, haha. There's also an old thread on here by someone who did a study showing the fulcrum pace horse was ITM 50% over a LOT of races, not sure how many. My point was occasionally, the fulcrum is a pace standout and the odds are very favorable, so it gets included in "some" of my plays, not all. Everything works some of the time, never all of the time; tote, speed/pace improvement, fulcrum, top class l.r., etc.-all get a look by me, in who to include. If I throw one out because of someone else's roi study, that's a decision to be made. My meaning was that for me, not including the fulcrum, is at my peril in exacta play. Others on here, say we should include closers in our exacta plays; while I don't have a closer angle, they often get included through some other factor. And they are often not a fulcrum qualifier in their last race only.
Handicapping races has changed so many times over the decades I'm playing, it's one of the attractions in that it keeps making us learn something new to be able to cash a decent ticket.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 02-05-2019 at 10:46 AM.
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02-05-2019, 11:30 AM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Niko
Jeff Platt did some very interesting research in this area which I found very helpful. Essentially, place odds are very different than win odds and should be treated accordingly.
The favorite is 32% to win, 20% to place. The 4th favorite is 17% to win, 16% to place. At face value, the favorite has a 52% chance to come in first and second and the 4th favorite only 33%. But, the place odds are much closer, 20% compared to 16%. If the favorite doesn't run their best race, their chances of running second aren't improved relative to the win slot. The 4th or 5th choice may not be good enough to make a winning bid and thus, they have a better chance of picking up the pieces and coming in second. Makes sense after seeing the numbers.
My take - you can't use win odds for determining an overlay in the second spot ...or 3rd, 4th.
That said, lower-priced combinations do seem to be underplayed compared to two longshots in the first two spots.
Would like to hear the take of more successful players.
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Unless you are talking about 5 horse fields it is highly improbable for a 4th favorite to win 17% of the time. It's more like 10-11%.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
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02-05-2019, 12:39 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,258
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Let's eliminate any confusion...
This is what I have in my database, top four in the odds, thoroughbred only, for calendar year 2018:
Code:
**********************************************************************************
POST TIME FAVORITES, 2018 --
FINISH IMPACT
POSITION PLAYS COUNT PCT VALUE Xth or Better
**********************************************************************************
1ST 40892 15223 0.3723 0.9847 1ST or better 015223/040892 = 0.3723
2ND 40892 8890 0.2174 0.575 2ND or better 024113/040892 = 0.5897
3RD 40892 5741 0.1404 0.3713 3RD or better 029854/040892 = 0.7301
4TH 40892 3912 0.0957 0.2531 4TH or better 033766/040892 = 0.8257
5TH 40892 2785 0.0681 0.1801 5TH or better 036551/040892 = 0.8938
6TH 40892 1929 0.0472 0.1248 6TH or better 038480/040892 = 0.9410
7TH 40892 1166 0.0285 0.0754 7TH or better 039646/040892 = 0.9695
8TH 40892 649 0.0159 0.0421 8TH or better 040295/040892 = 0.9854
9TH 40892 330 0.0081 0.0214 9TH or better 040625/040892 = 0.9935
10TH 40892 171 0.0042 0.0111 10TH or better 040796/040892 = 0.9977
11TH 40892 58 0.0014 0.0037 11TH or better 040854/040892 = 0.9991
12TH 40892 34 0.0008 0.0021 12TH or better 040888/040892 = 0.9999
13TH 40892 1 0 0 13TH or better 040889/040892 = 0.9999
14TH 40892 3 0.0001 0.0003 14TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
15TH 40892 0 0 0 15TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
16TH 40892 0 0 0 16TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
17TH 40892 0 0 0 17TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
18TH 40892 0 0 0 18TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
19TH 40892 0 0 0 19TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
20TH 40892 0 0 0 20TH or better 040892/040892 = 1.0000
**********************************************************************************
Code:
**********************************************************************************
SECOND CHOICE IN THE ODDS, 2018 --
FINISH IMPACT
POSITION PLAYS COUNT PCT VALUE Xth or Better
**********************************************************************************
1ST 39342 8578 0.218 0.9914 1ST or better 008578/039342 = 0.2180
2ND 39342 8655 0.22 1.0005 2ND or better 017233/039342 = 0.4380
3RD 39342 6861 0.1744 0.7931 3RD or better 024094/039342 = 0.6124
4TH 39342 5233 0.133 0.6048 4TH or better 029327/039342 = 0.7454
5TH 39342 3893 0.099 0.4502 5TH or better 033220/039342 = 0.8444
6TH 39342 2629 0.0668 0.3038 6TH or better 035849/039342 = 0.9112
7TH 39342 1657 0.0421 0.1915 7TH or better 037506/039342 = 0.9533
8TH 39342 943 0.024 0.1091 8TH or better 038449/039342 = 0.9773
9TH 39342 479 0.0122 0.0555 9TH or better 038928/039342 = 0.9895
10TH 39342 250 0.0064 0.0291 10TH or better 039178/039342 = 0.9958
11TH 39342 107 0.0027 0.0123 11TH or better 039285/039342 = 0.9986
12TH 39342 44 0.0011 0.005 12TH or better 039329/039342 = 0.9997
13TH 39342 8 0.0002 0.0009 13TH or better 039337/039342 = 0.9999
14TH 39342 3 0.0001 0.0005 14TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
15TH 39342 0 0 0 15TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
16TH 39342 0 0 0 16TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
17TH 39342 0 0 0 17TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
18TH 39342 0 0 0 18TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
19TH 39342 0 0 0 19TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
20TH 39342 0 0 0 20TH or better 039340/039342 = 0.9999
**********************************************************************************
Code:
**********************************************************************************
THIRD CHOICE IN THE ODDS, 2018 --
FINISH IMPACT
POSITION PLAYS COUNT PCT VALUE Xth or Better
**********************************************************************************
1ST 39239 5862 0.1494 0.9938 1ST or better 005862/039239 = 0.1494
2ND 39239 6968 0.1776 1.1814 2ND or better 012830/039239 = 0.3270
3RD 39239 7095 0.1808 1.2026 3RD or better 019925/039239 = 0.5078
4TH 39239 6203 0.1581 1.0517 4TH or better 026128/039239 = 0.6659
5TH 39239 4913 0.1252 0.8328 5TH or better 031041/039239 = 0.7911
6TH 39239 3740 0.0953 0.6339 6TH or better 034781/039239 = 0.8864
7TH 39239 2194 0.0559 0.3718 7TH or better 036975/039239 = 0.9423
8TH 39239 1223 0.0312 0.2075 8TH or better 038198/039239 = 0.9735
9TH 39239 606 0.0154 0.1024 9TH or better 038804/039239 = 0.9889
10TH 39239 276 0.007 0.0466 10TH or better 039080/039239 = 0.9959
11TH 39239 105 0.0027 0.018 11TH or better 039185/039239 = 0.9986
12TH 39239 40 0.001 0.0067 12TH or better 039225/039239 = 0.9996
13TH 39239 7 0.0002 0.0013 13TH or better 039232/039239 = 0.9998
14TH 39239 1 0 0 14TH or better 039233/039239 = 0.9998
15TH 39239 0 0 0 15TH or better 039233/039239 = 0.9998
16TH 39239 1 0 0 16TH or better 039234/039239 = 0.9999
17TH 39239 0 0 0 17TH or better 039234/039239 = 0.9999
18TH 39239 0 0 0 18TH or better 039234/039239 = 0.9999
19TH 39239 0 0 0 19TH or better 039234/039239 = 0.9999
20TH 39239 1 0 0 20TH or better 039235/039239 = 0.9999
**********************************************************************************
Code:
**********************************************************************************
FOURTH CHOICE IN THE ODDS, 2018 --
FINISH IMPACT
POSITION PLAYS COUNT PCT VALUE Xth or Better
**********************************************************************************
1ST 39130 4055 0.1036 0.9951 1ST or better 004055/039130 = 0.1036
2ND 39130 5517 0.141 1.3543 2ND or better 009572/039130 = 0.2446
3RD 39130 6527 0.1668 1.6021 3RD or better 016099/039130 = 0.4114
4TH 39130 7013 0.1792 1.7212 4TH or better 023112/039130 = 0.5906
5TH 39130 5966 0.1525 1.4647 5TH or better 029078/039130 = 0.7431
6TH 39130 4482 0.1145 1.0998 6TH or better 033560/039130 = 0.8577
7TH 39130 2802 0.0716 0.6877 7TH or better 036362/039130 = 0.9293
8TH 39130 1434 0.0366 0.3515 8TH or better 037796/039130 = 0.9659
9TH 39130 792 0.0202 0.194 9TH or better 038588/039130 = 0.9861
10TH 39130 350 0.0089 0.0855 10TH or better 038938/039130 = 0.9951
11TH 39130 127 0.0032 0.0307 11TH or better 039065/039130 = 0.9983
12TH 39130 49 0.0013 0.0125 12TH or better 039114/039130 = 0.9996
13TH 39130 9 0.0002 0.0019 13TH or better 039123/039130 = 0.9998
14TH 39130 4 0.0001 0.001 14TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
15TH 39130 0 0 0 15TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
16TH 39130 0 0 0 16TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
17TH 39130 0 0 0 17TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
18TH 39130 0 0 0 18TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
19TH 39130 0 0 0 19TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
20TH 39130 0 0 0 20TH or better 039127/039130 = 0.9999
**********************************************************************************
How to read:
There are four tables: Post time favorites, second in the odds, third in the odds, and fourth in the odds.
Within the table for each odds category: The Plays column displays the total number of starters for that odds category. There is one row for each possible finish position. The Count column displays the total number of starters with a finish position matching that row. The PCT column shows the hit rate for that row. The Xth or Better column displays Count, Plays, and PCT hit rate for achieving an Xth or better finish position for that row.
Hope I managed to type most of that out in a way that makes sense,
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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02-05-2019, 12:46 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Software test
Ok heres what my software says for top 4
W P exact position..
A 32 22
B 19 20
C 18 15
D 11 14
Amazing the drop off is not so bad.. Not sure how to use this but Pretty interesting. I want to move my Exact to Tri plays as it was the better bet in Rays system by 3 POINTS...
Last edited by teddy; 02-05-2019 at 12:50 PM.
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02-05-2019, 01:03 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
Ok heres what my software says for top 4
W P exact position..
A 32 22
B 19 20
C 18 15
D 11 14
Amazing the drop off is not so bad.. Not sure how to use this but Pretty interesting. I want to move my Exact to Tri plays as it was the better bet in Rays system by 3 POINTS...
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Using Jeff's numbers the drop off for the favorite goes from 37.2% to win to 34.6% to place. The 34.6% being computed from races excluding wins.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
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02-05-2019, 01:16 PM
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#54
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Bottom-line, here's what you're up against when throwing out the top 4 out of the exactas..
Top 4 in Exacta %'s
Favorite- About 59%
2nd Chalk- About 44%
3rd Chalk- 32.7%
4th Chalk- Over 24%
That's a tall order to thread the needle through that haystack.
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02-05-2019, 06:51 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Welll I tried the tri today and lost but exactas were up 1450 with rebates...
Tri didnt seem to pay that well when I did hit them...Usually barely broke even. Maybe I needed to use a b cd instead of ab/abcd/abcdef.
I think I like better to bet a $50 a/ bcd and reverse for 10.00 bcd/A
or crush a /bc for $100 ticket when Im confident.
Exacta just seems to fit better . I bet 5k on a tues... lol. I have a printout of my spot plays from htr and its deadly if you handicap the selections. Sometimes they are not playable and run up the track but if they look competitive they really fire... adding common sense to computer picks is a big edge. If you play the try with the a/bc/bcd you will pay 120.00 for the race but smash home a $20 tri ticket. Takes a large bankroll to play because you could be down to hitting under 10%.
Last edited by teddy; 02-05-2019 at 06:55 PM.
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02-05-2019, 07:50 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Philadelphia area
Posts: 9,609
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Can somebody please explain REBATES to me? I'm almost embarrassed to ask because everyone seems to know what they are. Would this be the same as the WAGER REWARDS on tvg.com?
__________________
A wet track can cause handicapping havoc!!
Last edited by coachv30; 02-05-2019 at 08:03 PM.
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02-05-2019, 08:21 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Every exacts I bet the ads gives me back 9% win or lose. Because of how much I bet. 15 on tri and super. I bet you get swamped with offer now. Lots on here get a cut. Some guy cramer gets half a point for referring me.
Last edited by teddy; 02-05-2019 at 08:23 PM.
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02-05-2019, 09:37 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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small sample
If the winner is under 2 to one the exacta paid $22 on average in my small sample of 50 races. Most my winners are under 2 to one. I am going to test to see if I restrict my payoff to min. $22 I will do this on paper. Not changing my style since I am up 4 of 5 days.
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02-07-2019, 01:12 AM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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reverse
I am firmly conviced the bcd with a payoffs are almost allways close to fair value. I had the charlestown 5th race with 25 to one on top of 3/5. It paid $185. I would of thought a hundred. Public is not reversing. Old news to some but worth repeating. Hit rate will drop to 20% but you can boost by using cd/ab instead but I would bet more on cd/a.
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02-07-2019, 07:18 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Killed it
Ok Im going to summarize what I have seen. With some great advice From Formula 2000 I was able to move my payoffs up dramatically.
Keying the chalk second pays way way more. If It is under even money you get a big bonus when it runs second. If it i 2 to one you get no bonus.
Playing my computer pics to place if they show they can hold on for second or are closers is a winner for me. Never play even money on top... unless its a horse you love. then bet to win.
also I had a 25 to one and a chalk and got paid almost double the expected.
Try that for a week.
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