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View Poll Results: Wagering Pool with best chance to find an overlay.
Win 20 36.36%
Place 2 3.64%
Show 5 9.09%
Exacta 17 30.91%
Trifecta 4 7.27%
Superfexta 1 1.82%
Pick(x) 6 10.91%
Hi 5 Pentafecta 0 0%
Voters: 55. This poll is closed

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Old 09-09-2021, 03:15 PM   #1
Ray2000
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Overlays

This poll question is focused on Harness betting but probably fits with T-breds as well.

What Wagering Pool do you believe has the most chance to find an overlay?
(underbet horse or ticket combo)?
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Old 09-10-2021, 08:32 AM   #2
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Great question.

The higher the odds and the greater the number of permutations, the greater the likelihood of PUBLIC ERROR - which is what fuels overlay.

But there is a point where the complexity of the permutations overcomes the ABILITY TO COMPUTE/RECOGNIZE those overlays.

Also, as the perms increase, other issues arise such as...
** Lower hit rates
** Less consistency
** Bigger bankroll needs
** more along these lines.

Balancing all of that, led me to EXACTAS from a practical POV.

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 09-10-2021 at 08:33 AM.
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Old 09-10-2021, 10:00 AM   #3
Ray2000
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All good points Dave

I think I should have used the word "Contain" instead of "find" in the question because one really needs to know the payoff to 'Find' any overlay.

Also, some Harness tracks have very low handle pools which makes for wild swings in payouts.

I went with Trifectas because of their enormous take-outs which is a shark repellent. Sharks do make mistakes and overbet some horses but the overbet money gets spread over all other entries payoffs so any overlays are too small to bother with.

Trifecta also gets ignored by the Robots which need probable pays to be effective.

I may be the only Trifecta vote.
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Old 09-10-2021, 02:13 PM   #4
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Over the long-term I don't know that any one pool would be any less efficient than the others if that's what you're asking. What would be more critical IMO is (no matter the pool) the ability to know as close as possible what the final odds will be. As mentioned in other threads the full double probables matrix at the completion of the first leg is IMO one very good way to 'know' that.

Why we lose ultimately is that we bet on too many underlays and when we bet a horse at one minute to post because the odds at one minute to post seem to be 'value' but almost half the time it goes into underlay territory after you wager while some other horse goes off the overlay then that's an impossible way to play the game successfully IMO. I would strongly suggest sticking with the DD probables, get the expected final odds from those, assume all of the other pools will fall into line with those expected odds. With that methodology I think you're probably looking at the best-case scenario for betting on overlays a very high percentage of the time. I think trifectas are still fine if that's what someone is good at (leveraging verticals) cool, as long as it's overlays you're fine.
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Old 09-11-2021, 01:06 PM   #5
Bogo
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I voted for exactas. Dave put into words my thoughts on hit rates and I indeed have trouble with the ability to recognize the overlays when it comes to getting 4 or 5 horses in the correct order. The ability to see the exacta payouts along with the win odds keeps me in my best spot without the frustration of low hit rates.
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Old 09-12-2021, 01:37 PM   #6
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I think in general the "value" horse is best exploited in the pick 4 and pick 5 pool as a single when it is a horse you like a lot, has an attractive morning line and public handicappers aren't all over him. In other words you think a horse should be about 3-1 he is sitting at at about 8-1 on the morning line in one of the latter races of the pick 4/pick 5 and you look at the public handicappers and they aren't all over this horse(maybe one or two have him 3rd or 4th). If you are indeed right about his value you may be getting value on a horse that ends up at 3-1 or 4-1 after all bet betting is in. If he gets hit by the bettors, he still likely is more like 6 or 7-1 in the pick 4/pick 5 pools.
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