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11-04-2022, 07:28 PM
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#331
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,757
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael
Serious question... what are the actual odds of a jockey falling off his mount?
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it depends how many horses are in the race and if you are able to separate between flat and jumpers..
the only number i could come up with is an average of one in every eleven races.
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11-04-2022, 07:53 PM
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#332
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
it depends how many horses are in the race and if you are able to separate between flat and jumpers..
the only number i could come up with is an average of one in every eleven races.
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I've always been curious to know if tracks keep an actual count, or if they have a database so they could look up these queries.
It's horses like Flightline that make me question these things. It has to be fairly low, but it's not like we don't see it every so often.
I remember betting every cent in my account on some horse that came though mountaineer on like a Wednesday night. (CA shipper on it's way to NY for a stakes race) There was legit, no way this horse could lose... the only way I could think of... was the Jock falling off.
Anyway, appreciate the 1 in 11 estimate. Exciting day tomorrow. 
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11-05-2022, 05:42 AM
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#333
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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_____________
some are calling Flightline one of the fastest horses ever
only one horse ever got a Beyer better than the 126 in the Pacific Classic
none have had - according to the article - a 5 race string of Beyers like this:
105, 114, 118, 112 and 126
he didn't run in TC events so he's not all that famous
apologies if this stuff has already been mentioned in the thread - too many posts here to go over them all
https://theathletic.com/3755295/2022...-fastest-ever/
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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11-05-2022, 06:32 AM
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#334
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 710
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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some are calling Flightline one of the fastest horses ever
only one horse ever got a Beyer better than the 126 in the Pacific Classic
none have had - according to the article - a 5 race string of Beyers like this:
105, 114, 118, 112 and 126
he didn't run in TC events so he's not all that famous
apologies if this stuff has already been mentioned in the thread - too many posts here to go over them all
https://theathletic.com/3755295/2022...-fastest-ever/
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Ghostzapper got a 128 in the Iselin. In 1987 Groovy got a 131 in the Roseben Handicap followed up by a 134 in the Tom Fool Handicap.
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11-05-2022, 09:23 AM
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#335
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,668
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Sooner or later, thoroughbred careers come down to soundness. And the connections of elite horses have zero to gain by full disclosure. Count me skeptical of the light campaigning. Nor do I completely buy the explanation that Flghtline's races have been spaced as part of some "relaxation" agenda.
So far, the horse's action has been smooth and athletic, but I want to see him pressed and all out after fatigue has set in. I hope he travels like a lubricated dream and a singularly compelling page in racing history gets written today.
We will see.
Last edited by mountainman; 11-05-2022 at 09:31 AM.
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11-05-2022, 10:57 AM
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#336
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,221
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
it depends how many horses are in the race and if you are able to separate between flat and jumpers..
the only number i could come up with is an average of one in every eleven races.
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Definitely need to separate flats and jumpers to have any meaningful numbers!
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
Past performances are no guarantee of future results. - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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11-05-2022, 11:12 AM
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#337
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,757
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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some are calling Flightline one of the fastest horses ever
only one horse ever got a Beyer better than the 126 in the Pacific Classic
none have had - according to the article - a 5 race string of Beyers like this:
105, 114, 118, 112 and 126
he didn't run in TC events so he's not all that famous
apologies if this stuff has already been mentioned in the thread - too many posts here to go over them all
https://theathletic.com/3755295/2022...-fastest-ever/
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my guess is that the beyer number can only come down, how far down is anyone's guess!
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11-05-2022, 01:40 PM
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#338
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SharpCat
Ghostzapper got a 128 in the Iselin. In 1987 Groovy got a 131 in the Roseben Handicap followed up by a 134 in the Tom Fool Handicap.
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Groovy's figures are actually the classic example of how useless Beyer's figures are at the stratospheric level.
Groovy wasn't nearly as good a horse as Beyer rated him. He ran big figures in slow paced, short field races in New York at a time when New York's sprints should have been Grade III's or something. When he faced real sprinters, he was ordinary. And that makes me not trust those 131's and 134's- sprint speed figures can get very high because 1/5 of a second is worth more "points" at a short distance.
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11-05-2022, 05:45 PM
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#339
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Um the best...................
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
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11-05-2022, 05:47 PM
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#340
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Life Is Good went 3/4 in 1:07 4/5. In any normal race the closers would catch up to that. Instead Flightline pulled away.
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11-05-2022, 05:48 PM
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#341
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Tremendous race horse, best I have seen.
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11-05-2022, 05:49 PM
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#342
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Life Is Good went 3/4 in 1:07 4/5. In any normal race the closers would catch up to that. Instead Flightline pulled away.
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Not sure about the 6f time, wouldnt be surprised one of the outriders triggered the beam while trying to get to Epicentre
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11-05-2022, 05:50 PM
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#343
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,616
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What a horse...wow....
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11-05-2022, 05:52 PM
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#344
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: East Texas
Posts: 1,338
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Epicenter with what appears to be an injured front fetlock.
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11-05-2022, 05:55 PM
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#345
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,616
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How strong did Flightline look down the stretch...so impressive
It's too bad I'm so jaded these days...I would appreciate it more...LOL
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