Does anyone know the frequency of disqualified runners?

[paddy79]

Is there any way I can find stats relating to this. I'm talking about a horse winning and then being disqualified by the stewards and the race officially goes to another horse. I'm wondering what the average number of disqualified runners would be at tracks and just generally. For example, since the start of this year how many disqualifications have happened at Finger Lakes? Or maybe a better way of putting it is if you take 1000 races at random, what is the average number of disqualifications? Can anyone hazard a guess? If I had to guess based on my experience as a handicapper I'd say about 30 of those races would end up with a disqualification. Does that seem too high or too low, or perhaps just right??

[RonTiller]

This is for races where original finish position = 1 and official finish position > 1 and there is no win payoff for that horse. This last condition separates off horses who were subsequently DQ'd after race day but who on race day were declared the winner and had win payoffs associated with it.

So these are HOLD ALL TICKETS DQs and not post-race day regulatory or drug test failure DQs.

In 2021 USA and Canada thoroughbreds:

191 win DQs
30,971 races total

Ron Tiller
HDW

[paddy79]

Thanks Ron. That's exactly what I was looking for. Greatly appreciated my friend. It works out at 1 disqualification per 162 races. I assume that sample size is enough to take that as a general average.

[tbwinner]

Gosh, it feels like it happens more often than that. Of course always when I have the DQd winner!!!

Curious how many horses have been DQd "post official" likely due to drugs or other??

[soflant]

Ron----Great information on these disqualified runners. Do you happen to know the average odds of the winners? Do you see this as a good longshot angle? Thanks in advance.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by RonTiller

This is for races where original finish position = 1 and official finish position > 1 and there is no win payoff for that horse. This last condition separates off horses who were subsequently DQ'd after race day but who on race day were declared the winner and had win payoffs associated with it.

So these are HOLD ALL TICKETS DQs and not post-race day regulatory or drug test failure DQs.

In 2021 USA and Canada thoroughbreds:

191 win DQs
30,971 races total

Ron Tiller
HDW

Great info. Now I know how extremely singled out and victimized I am justified in feeling when my number comes down. God, I am cursed.

More seriously..this info nearly begs for further break-down. For instance: what's the corresponding frequency of objections? Inquiries? Both together? Are favorites disqualified at a comparatively lower rate than other winners likewise facing inquiry? How about high percentage trainers? Leading riders?
And does the point of infraction factor into the chances of disqualification?

So many ways to play with this data..as I'm sure you know.

[paddy79]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Great info. Now I know how extremely singled out and victimized I am justified in feeling when my number comes down. God, I am cursed.

More seriously..this info nearly begs for further break-down. For instance: what's the corresponding frequency of objections? Inquiries? Both together? Are favorites disqualified at a comparatively lower rate than other winners likewise facing inquiry? How about high percentage trainers? Leading riders?
And does the point of infraction factor into the chances of disqualification?

So many ways to play with this data..as I'm sure you know.

LOL signing in as one of the cursed. I've had about 5 horses that I backed be disqualified I think. Brutal way to lose.


Good follow up questions for sure. I guess I'd assume that it's fairly even across the board and the rules are applied equally but perhaps we are all a little too old, jaded and miserable to believe that It would definitely be interesting to see if favorites are disqualified at a low rate or if leading riders or trainers have a lower than expected rate.



I can see the benefit of having a huge database of past results that you can search through with queries like this.