the 'Morning Line' is supposed to 'cap the Public, not be a 'Selection'!!

[classhandicapper]

Someone with MLs in their database should be be able to run some tests.

At a minimum you could see how often the ML favorite actually went off the favorite at each track. I have ML data going back to 2016 at all the major tracks, but I don't know the dates each ML person started their job at each track. I may run some tests over the least year privately just out of intellectual curiosity, but I'm not going to publish anything.

[Nitro]

Sorry Robert but the title of this thread is really pretty funny!

Why because people time and again are always loosely referring to it as the “Public” betting money in the wagering pools. When in fact they have no idea who makes up that “Public” in the betting arena. The betting population is certainly made up of both insiders and outsiders.
I personally would not consider the insiders as the “Public”.
But that’s me.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Sorry Robert but the title of this thread is really pretty funny!

Why because people time and again are always loosely referring to it as the “Public” betting money in the wagering pools. When in fact they have no idea who makes up that “Public” in the betting arena. The betting population is certainly made up of both insiders and outsiders.
I personally would not consider the insiders as the “Public”.
But that’s me.

I like it.




I'm used to calling 'everyone who's not me', "The Public".

Interested in your terminology, and how the distinction affects your play.

I know you are good with the tote. Without revealing secrets, - Any luck in distinguishing the source of pool moneys in a race?

[pandy]

I appreciate the effort the good morning line makers put into it. NYRA does a good job and has for quite some time.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by jay68802

The morning line.

The only use is a initial comparison to what you think the horses odds should be. Then wait for the race and see what happens.

Some tracks ML I take seriously. Some make me laugh.

If you watch the video, you sort of understand that he has a good clue to what is going on.

Nice to have people like this in the game.

I totally agree with this. I see what the public might think then if there’s a horse I like I hope it’s close to the original line before the race. I also like to wait and see if the favorite is overbet. Once it gets down to 4/5 or less then it becomes ridiculous. It’s a race of animals with a person on its back in a group tightly packed. Anything can happen. If you’ve been following racing long enough nothing should surprise you. I have to use horses like this in my pics and exactas. But I would have to be bat shit crazy to place win bets on horses like that. That’s just my opinion and the way I bet. I can’t get ahead betting those types to win.

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

This may not even be the fault of the linemakers. The less money in the pool, the more variance in the odds (as anyone who has gone to a small track and placed a big win bet can sadly confirm). Which means even a good ML maker is going to be less accurate at a smaller track.

An old railbird once explained to me years ago. Making a big win bet at a small track is equivalent to "kissing your sister".

[biggestal99]

Which serious horseplayer these days uses the morning line anymore.

It’s an archaic relic.

Allan

[westernmassbob]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Which serious horseplayer these days uses the morning line anymore.

It’s an archaic relic.

Allan

The M/L favorite is an absurdly powerful tool in pick 3/4/5’s betting. Factually speaking the “will pays “ with all of those bets nearly always have the M/L favorite as the lowest payoff. You have so many lazy handicappers that automatically just close out their pick sequences with the M/L fav. There is such a disparity in payoffs you must wonder if even the serious of horseplayers gets sucked in to the almighty M/L fav.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Which serious horseplayer these days uses the morning line anymore.

It’s an archaic relic.

Allan

Well, I do.

It is a major component of making an accurate prediction of what the odds will be (or should be).

So much so, that only in extreme cases does the tote board come into play.

As a very learned and data-driven horse racing guru said to me several years ago, "I wish I could find a single pedigree factor that does as good a job as the morning line at picking winners or producing profit."

[RonTiller]

I just did a quick down and dirty query comparing MLO favorite versus actual tote board favorite. A quick check of yesterday's cards validated the data is correct.

Data is for Jan 1 2019 through yesterday June 13

These are the tracks where 70% or more of the MLO favorites end up being the tote favorites

Trk     MLO Fav that are Tote Fav     Races     % of MLO Fav that are Tote Fav
AQU	883	                      1193        74
MTH	473                            650        73
BEL	625                            882        71
PLN      79                            112        71
AZD	115                            162        71
LRC	160	                       226        71
CT     1292                           1830        71
DMR	292                            414        71
LA	377                            531        71
RP	425                            604        70
SAR	290                            414        70
TAM     1126                          1619        70

Usual stipulations apply. Field sizes, competitiveness of fields, size of gap between MLO favorite and other horses, MLO values (4/5 versus 3/1 MLO favorite), MLO line over 100% (sometimes by a lot), etc.

Also, we all know that MLO are not the same as probabilities a horse will win based on a model, converted to odds. My impression is all MLO makers are not cut from the same cloth as David Aragona. There are no doubt different levels of competence as well as different philosophies of making MLO. If the MLO maker is good, like David Aragona is, there could be a feedback loop where the MLO influence the final odds. Hard to do an experiment on this but the statistical whiz kids on this board could (and maybe have already) probably answer this question.

I'm not sure the best way to evaluate MLO, as a set of numbers whose primary purpose is to roughly predict tote odds. One can measure the rankings of one versus the other (as in measuring MLO favorites versus actual tote favorites) and the closeness of fit of MLO favorites versus actual tote favorites (2/1 on MLO versus 4/5 on tote). Moreover, the lower the MLO, the better fit I would expect. MLO 2/1 should on average be a closer fit to the actual tote odds than MLO 15/1, notwithstanding occasional stinkers. The ubiquitous 20/1 MLO longshots are probably the least accurate number wise but may be much more accurate ranking wise (7th rank MLO , 7th rank actual tote odds, but 40/1 on tote rather than 20/1).



Ron Tiller
HDW

[RonTiller]

As a very learned and data-driven horse racing guru said to me several years ago, "I wish I could find a single pedigree factor that does as good a job as the morning line at picking winners or producing profit.

Hey Dave, I don't know if you are referring to Jim Cramer but Jim has said that many times re first time starters. It drove him nuts.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[RonTiller]

These are the tracks with the worst performing morning line, based solely on the number of MLO favorites that become tote favorites. Some of these tracks might perform better based on other metrics. These are the tracks where < 60% of MLO favorites go on to be tote favorites. At least 100 races are required, which takes out a lot of small short fair meets.

Trk                     % of MLO Fav that are Tote Fav
CTM	213	360	59
RUI	135	229	59
AP	356	606	59
GRP	88	148	59
PHA	1073	1842	58
FON	346	612	57
CBY	306	550	56
ALB	149	264	56
ELP	143	254	56
FE	187	334	56
SUN	415	756	55
DEL	351	642	55
TDN	489	923	53
EVD	420	802	52
BTP	399	811	49
ARP	117	244	48
MD	48	173	28

So for the period I queried (>= Jan 1 2019) Aqueduct wins the prize for having the best MLO based solely on % of MLO favorites becoming tote favorites, clocking in at 74%. Marquis Downs had the worst performance, clocking in at 28%.

Ron Tiller
HDW

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by RonTiller

These are the tracks with the worst performing morning line, based solely on the number of MLO favorites that become tote favorites. Some of these tracks might perform better based on other metrics. These are the tracks where < 60% of MLO favorites go on to be tote favorites. At least 100 races are required, which takes out a lot of small short fair meets.

Trk                     % of MLO Fav that are Tote Fav
CTM	213	360	59
RUI	135	229	59
AP	356	606	59
GRP	88	148	59
PHA	1073	1842	58
FON	346	612	57
CBY	306	550	56
ALB	149	264	56
ELP	143	254	56
FE	187	334	56
SUN	415	756	55
DEL	351	642	55
TDN	489	923	53
EVD	420	802	52
BTP	399	811	49
ARP	117	244	48
MD	48	173	28

So for the period I queried (>= Jan 1 2019) Aqueduct wins the prize for having the best MLO based solely on % of MLO favorites becoming tote favorites, clocking in at 74%. Marquis Downs had the worst performance, clocking in at 28%.

Ron Tiller
HDW

And note, only a small number of these are major tracks with big handle. I would have been shocked if the morning lines at Grants Pass were accurate, for instance.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by RonTiller

These are the tracks with the worst performing morning line, based solely on the number of MLO favorites that become tote favorites. Some of these tracks might perform better based on other metrics. These are the tracks where < 60% of MLO favorites go on to be tote favorites. At least 100 races are required, which takes out a lot of small short fair meets.

Trk                     % of MLO Fav that are Tote Fav
CTM	213	360	59
RUI	135	229	59
AP	356	606	59
GRP	88	148	59
PHA	1073	1842	58
FON	346	612	57
CBY	306	550	56
ALB	149	264	56
ELP	143	254	56
FE	187	334	56
SUN	415	756	55
DEL	351	642	55
TDN	489	923	53
EVD	420	802	52
BTP	399	811	49
ARP	117	244	48
MD	48	173	28

So for the period I queried (>= Jan 1 2019) Aqueduct wins the prize for having the best MLO based solely on % of MLO favorites becoming tote favorites, clocking in at 74%. Marquis Downs had the worst performance, clocking in at 28%.

Ron Tiller
HDW

Hey Ron....

Nice stats....

This is from HTR ...correct?

And from a handicapping perspective....betting these lower percentage tracks can be a more profitable situation since most bettors & programs make The ML...God Like!!!

Mike

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Hey Ron....

Nice stats....

This is from HTR ...correct?

And from a handicapping perspective....betting these lower percentage tracks can be a more profitable situation since most bettors & programs make The ML...God Like!!!

Mike

If the ML is less accurate, how would that show that bettors make the ML "God like"? Wasn't the whole point of the data the exact opposite of what you said?