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Old 02-07-2019, 02:27 AM   #466
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UPDATE - R#5 - 1200M C4 (6F)T.... 2-11-8 W/ 6-1-12 …..1:35 AM EST –
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Old 02-07-2019, 02:33 AM   #467
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R5

2
11,6,1 ,8, 3
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Old 02-07-2019, 02:43 AM   #468
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UPDATE - R#5 - 1200M C4 (6F)T.... 2-11-8 W/ 6-1-12 …..1:35 AM EST –
2-9-11-8– Dutch Win 28% Profit Margin-Passed / No action on the LS Placer #9 (Lucky Number "2" – 1st)
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Old 02-07-2019, 03:04 AM   #469
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R6
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31,12, 14, 5,2
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Old 02-07-2019, 03:15 AM   #470
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R#6 - 1400M C4 (7F)T…... 1-3-14 W/ 4-8-7 …..2:05 AM EST –
(May sub #4, #7, or #8 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
3-4-8-14– Big Dutch Win 109% Profit Margin / $64.60 Quinella & $783.40 Triple / ALL of that one!
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Old 02-07-2019, 03:44 AM   #471
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R#7 – 1200M C3 (6F)T.... 7-12-5 W/ 10-1-8 .....2:35 AM EST –
(May sub #1, or #10 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
7-10-5-8– Dutch Win 18% Profit Margin-Passed / $10.90 Quinella & $59.60 Triple / ALL of that one!
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Old 02-07-2019, 04:14 AM   #472
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R#8 - 1400M C1 (7F)T..… 3-4-5 W/ 1-2---- ……3:05 AM EST –
(May sub #6 into top 5 if live tote dictates)
3-6-5-4– Dutch Win 5% Profit Margin-Passed /
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Old 02-07-2019, 01:32 PM   #473
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R#9 - 1200M C3 (6F)T..…. 7-2-5 W/ 4-1-8 …....3:40 AM EST –
(May sub #1, #4 or #8 into top 3 if live tote dictates)
5/7-2-4 – Win DH– Dutch Win 53% Profit Margin/ $23.80 Quinella & $59.60 & $125.20 Triples / ALL of that one!

** Dutch Win Quota Reached – hitting 3 of 4 playable races.

Quote:
R#10 - 1400M C3 (7F)T... 3-2-14 W/ 7-8-6 …..4:15 AM EST –
(May sub #7 or #8 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
14-3-8-12– Dutch Win 29% Profit Margin-Passed/ $13.20 Quinella & $308.40 Triple / ALL of that one!

Quote:
R#11 - 1600M C3 (8F)T... 1-14-12 W/ 5-4-9 – swapped #14 & #12 into Top & dropped #4 & #9 due to heavy betting ….4:50 AM EST
(May sub #14 or #5 into top 3 if live tote indicates)
12-6-5-14– Dutch Win 53% Profit Margin-Passed – Quota Reached / No action on the big LS Placer #6

It turned out to be another profitable card with some decent Dutching opportunities. My Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 44%, and was hit from 3 of 4 playable races. There were also a few nice Vertical hits along the way.
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Old 02-09-2019, 01:04 AM   #474
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Overall Dutch Win Profit Margins thru 2/7/19

After taking a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis I’m able to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks. The Top 3 have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins are higher ^ than 50%. If not the race becomes an automatic Pass.

These are the documented results for the selections I've posted on PA for the last 46 race cards at both Sha Tin and Happy Valley.

Code:
 
3-ENTRY	DUTCH	WIN	RESULTS
PROFIT	MARGIN	% 	% 
DATE	DAY	SHA-TIN	HAP-VALLEY
09/02/18	SUN	41	
09/05/18	WED		73
09/09/18	SUN	34	
09/12/18	WED		98
09/16/18	SUN	CANCELLED
09/19/18	WED		CANCELLED
09/22/18	SAT	-44	(YIELDING)
09/26/18	WED		62
10/01/18	MON	41	
10/03/18	WED		65
10/07/18	SUN	78	
10/10/18	WED		25
10/13/18	SAT	43	
10/18/18	WED		82
10/21/18	SAT	52	
10/24/18	WED		36
10/28/18	SUN		-13
10/31/18	WED	25	
11/04/18	SUN	-2	
11/07/18	WED		34
11/10/18	SAT	75	
11/14/18	WED		98
11/18/18	SUN	45	
11/21/18	WED		47
11/25/18	SUN	30	
11/28/18	WED		42
12/02/18	SUN	66	
12/05/18	WED		75
12/09/18	SUN	0	
12/12/18	WED		58
12/15/18	SAT	37	
12/19/18	WED		0
12/23/18	SUN	81	
12/26/18	WED		30
12/29/18	SUN	-25	
01/01/19	WED	65	
01/06/19	SUN	53	
01/09/19	WED		8
01/12/19	SAT	39	
01/16/19	WED		146
01/20/19	SUN	-45	
01/23/19	WED		40
01/27/19	SUN	51	
01/30/19	WED		66
02/02/19	SUN	0	
02/07/19	THURS	44	
		SHA-TIN	HAP-VALLEY
TOTAL AVG	PROFIT	36	56
TOTAL	46	RACE	DAYS
TOTAL AVG	PROFIT	BOTH TRKS	46
 
I’ll let you be the judge after making the comparisons between these results and perhaps the most prolific player, Bill Benter.
Keep in mind that the amazing Bill Benter’s computerized system at Hong Kong initially produced a 27% Profit Margin. Later after introducing the public's betting activities into his program his over-all Profit Margin increased to a healthy 34%.

Quote:
from Bill Benter's Report
CREATING UNBIASED PROBABILITY ESTIMATES
It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates (the tote board activities), and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.
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Old 02-09-2019, 10:09 PM   #475
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Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin . February 10, 2019… 45th race meeting of the 2018-2019 year.
Weather report: 70 Degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: ENE 20 to 30mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190210_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 7 Raging Blitzkrieg (even) Has had plenty of chances to win lately and draws a field he should be able to handle but he hates to win. With the outside draw and the short run to the turn, that might be his excuse not to get up again.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 277 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, Second: 12th)
Race 6 Fortunate Runner (5-1)

Race 329 (Winners: 1st & 12th, Second: 7th)
Race 7 Saul’s Special (24-1)
Race 7 Storm Signal (3-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 9 Goldie Flanker (5-2)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 7 Hithinlove (6-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 7 Lean Perfection (8-1)

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 7 New Asia Sunrise (12-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
Race 4 Mr Right (47-1)


Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 9 Shimmer And Shine (8-1) Had been racing on the dirt when he sustained a left hind leg injury that forced a withdraw on the twelfth of January. At the start he took a leap out of the gate and it took him a couple steps to get into his proper gate, he then settled mid-pack while on the rail. In the stretch he looked full of run but was stuck behind a wall of horses with Schofield trying to find a way out, when room became available he finished well reaching for the wire.


Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 10 Invincible Missile (11-1)


Key Play:
Race 6 Super Star (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 Nashashuk (11-1)
Race 3 Packing Warrior (16-1)
Race 10 Gallant Return (15-1)
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Old 02-10-2019, 12:33 AM   #476
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Cool HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN- 2/10/19

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 8 to be run on Turf & 2 on Dirt: (from top Class to bottom) -
(2)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (1)-Class-5


Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN EST

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T…...5-4-8 W/ 12-4-11 …12:00 AM EST

R#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T.....4-9-3 W/ 10-1-11 ….12:30 AM EST

R#3- 2000M C2 (10F)T.….6-8-5 W/ 4-1-3 …...1:00 AM EST

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)D…...7-3-10 W/ 6-11-9 ….1:30 AM EST

R#5- 1600M C4 (8F)T…...8-2-9 W/ 12-3-1 …...2:10 AM EST

R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T…...9-7-12 W/ 8-4-1 …...2:40 AM EST

R#7- 1200M C2 (6F)T…...4-2-7 W/ 8-9-6 ….....3:10 AM EST

R#8- 1000M C3 (5F)T...…9-2-11 W/ 3-1-7 ..…3:40 AM EST

R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)D..….8-9-3 W/ 1-5-7 ….....4:15 AM EST

R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T....8-7-1 W/4-6-10 …....4:50 AM EST

.
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Old 02-10-2019, 01:02 AM   #477
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Nitro, was wondering if you struggled with you wagering today Oaklawn...I know I did...?
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Old 02-10-2019, 01:11 AM   #478
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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey View Post
Nitro, was wondering if you struggled with you wagering today Oaklawn...I know I did...?
Yes as a matter of fact I obviously did. Some big long shots did me in. There were some very close finishes that went south for me, but the race card was not the best either for a Sat.

Just like the opener at Sha Tin this morning!

Last edited by Nitro; 02-10-2019 at 01:13 AM.
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Old 02-10-2019, 01:12 AM   #479
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R#1- 1200M C5 (6F)T….5-4-8 W/ 12-4-11 …12:00 AM EST
10-8-11-5– Dutch Loss 47% Profit Margin-Passed / Not much action on the LS Winner #10
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Old 02-10-2019, 01:34 AM   #480
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UPDATER#2- 1200M C4 (6F)T...9-3-10 W/ 13-1-11 ….12:30 AM EST
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