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Old 01-08-2019, 11:37 AM   #1
RonTiller
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What is REAL Handicapping and So what?

Who is "really" handicapping? What is "really" handicapping? And does it really even matter? I didn't want to contribute to thread creep in the Is a Positive ROI Attainable... thread so I started a new one.

The fundamental question, as Jim Cramer always said, is "How do I take money out of this race?" At the extreme ends, many people believe that for most races, you can't. Fill in the blank with your favorite reasons - crooked trainers, crooked jockeys, drugs, whales have ruined the sport, the markets are almost completely efficient, etc. Fewer believe that for most races, you can. Love them or hate them, rebates to large volume players has certainly influenced how one goes about answering the question "How do I take money out of this race?"

As a first distinction, rather than using words like "handicapping" and "assessing value", I'll make 2 distinctions:

1. Determining what bets to make in a race or sequence of races (as in daily doubles, pick 4s, etc.)
2. Executing those bets

Step 1 might result in
  1. 2 horses to make a win bet on
  2. An exacta bet
  3. Multiple trifecta bets
  4. A place bet
Step 2 might be
  1. Walk up to a parimutuel window at a track and read the bet(s) to the clerk
  2. Call up your bookie
  3. Log onto an ADW platform like Twinspires or DRFBets and make bet via interface
  4. Upload a conditional odds list of bets to your ADW so the bets are only executed if odds thresholds are met
  5. Bet diectly through an API that an ADW makes available to (typically) large volume customers
These steps are certainly not independent. The ability to bet through an API directly into the pool affects the types of bets one may assemble and the manner of assembling them. So with an API, one can work with a model with hundreds and even thousands of probability combinations for all the available bets in each race and compare all probablities and current odds (or projected odds) in milliseconds and then execute bets that meet preset thresholds at very close to the fnal flash before pools close. This can mean that the decision on WHAT to bet is made in milliseconds before the bet is executed, determined by all the programming and modelling that most likely took years of work and testing.

On the other hand, a player who has a spot play that generates a play in race 6 might very well bet before the card even starts and then go off and do something else until checking the results the next morning. Step 2 is just not as critical for this player. Just execute the bet before the race starts. Bet execution is literally trivial.

In addition, the determining what bets to make portion may be fluid, such that the list of bets to make changes from one flash to the next, because of real time odds changes. This might occur for somebody who has a win bet in sight and is watching the tote board at the track for favorable odds. It might also occur for high speed API betters where thousands of probabilities are repeatedly compared by computers to current and projected odds, each flash perhaps giving a different answer to the question "what bets to make?"

Ask the player with a DRF in hand what bet(s) she is making, you'll probably get a stright answer, like the 5 horse to win. Or maybe the 5 horse to win if the odds are higher than 3 to 1. Ask an API bettor and there is literally no answer until bet execution time, or the answer is so complex as to be meaningless. The bets assembled 5 minutes before final flash could be completely different from the bets actually made at the final flash. And the API bettor just (just!!!) needs a program that compares model probablities with current odds or sequence of odds and makes the bets through the API, either manually, with the press of a button, or automatically. There is no "Who do you like in race 6?" and maybe not even "What did you bet in race 6?" Whatever the model and odds and the bet generation rules spit out.

Whatever the model and current odds and the bet generation rules spit out? Hmm. The analytical work was done before hand. The hundreds and thousands of hours spent developing, refining and testing the model and keeping it tweaked. Incorporating ever new data in the models to maintain an edge. Database maintenance. Programming the analytical engines. Bet generation software. API programming. Tracking bets and results. Reconciling anomalies. Bug fixes (Ugh!). New ideas (yes, thinking does not stop). This is NOT the lazy person's way to riches (or the poor house). A betting team or group can allow the work to be spread out. A one person shop can be brutal.

Is the API player (or the model player who executes bets through an interface like Twinspires) a "real" handicapper? It just doesn't matter.

Well, give the API pseudo-handicapper-model-programmer a DRF and send them to the track and the result might be comical (though not always). Give the DRF handicapper MATLAB, some cloud servers, a robust programming platform and several terabytes of raw data and the result might be comical (though not always). Give both of them a popular handicapping program and send them to the NHC tournament and they probably finish mid to bottom pack. This is not to elevate one and denigrate the others. Its fantastically different approaches to answering the fundamental question "How do I take money out of this race / these races / this sport?" In my mind, when done with skill and expertise and success, all of these are things of beauty. Whatever you call them.

OK, OK, there's nothing beautiful about a complete novice betting his kids birthdays and hitting a 2 million dollar pick 6, while you've been struggling for decades to hit anything. On the other hand, maybe there is...

Ron Tiller
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:36 PM   #2
Buckeye
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Jeez!

Try making your choice and taking your chance.

I think you're overthinking this.
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Old 01-09-2019, 12:02 AM   #3
sjk
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Hi Ron,

I am closer to the automated end of the betting types you describe. I find it plenty satisfying that my computer and the software I wrote years ago can find success in betting.

If I go out to the track and try to bet without my usual tools I don't really expect to win. I reserve my more serious action for the choices the computer provides to the ADW at home.
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Old 01-09-2019, 02:27 AM   #4
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Just pick numbers out of a hat lol.
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Old 01-09-2019, 10:22 AM   #5
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I'm all in on the 7-1/8 in the 5th today!
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Old 01-09-2019, 10:55 AM   #6
VigorsTheGrey
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Due to the take-out, if too many sharp outfits armed with artificial intelligence find automated ways of “taking money from the race” wouldn’t the net result be the contest for least loss...?

The only winners will be the tracks and the few monopolistic horsemen remaining in the game...
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Old 01-09-2019, 11:30 AM   #7
RonTiller
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Quote:
I am closer to the automated end of the betting types you describe. I find it plenty satisfying that my computer and the software I wrote years ago can find success in betting.

If I go out to the track and try to bet without my usual tools I don't really expect to win. I reserve my more serious action for the choices the computer provides to the ADW at home.
Exactly. It can be a real thing of beauty to see these complicated handicapping/betting infrastructures at work. There are certainly contributors to PaceAdvantage who do something along the lines of what I describe as an API bettor / model builder. But it is so insanely different from the PPs-in-hand or handicapping-program handicapper that there is much truth in the observation that it is not "really" handicapping. And the model building itself can be an exercise in technical complexity that makes your head spin. This is not the world of "What do you think about Pletchers drop down horse stretching out?" Not the world of "What do you think of Andy Serling's analysis of race 2 at Belmont?"

Think how handicapping has evolved. DRF-in-hand handicapping was dominant for so long. Sure you can do stuff with the DRF data on the page. Collect it to build track models. Keep track of jockey-trainer success statistics for automatic bets. Use paper and pencil systems and methods. Use the DRF to do stuff like Tom Worth's (and subsequently Jon Worth's) TIPS. Do full scale comprehensive handicapping like Tom Ainslie might have done. And so on.

Computers then let you type in 22.0, 45.2, 1:10.3 along with beaten lengths and Howard Sartin (love him or hate him) made picking pacelines a core component of handicapping. But that's not "really" handicapping.

Enter more complicated computer handicapping programs and data downloads (anyone remember 2400 baud modems?) and DRF-in-hand handicapping started to seem downright quaint. It was now all about analyzing screens and reports and output. But that's not "really" handicapping.

Programming platforms became more robust and high level and somebody not a professional programmer could now write programs. Spreadsheets and home database programs made data assimilation and analysis more accessible than ever. Many people on this board have jumped into the deep end on this, while others find things like spreadsheets helpful adjuncts. But that's not "really" handicapping.

Betting venues and bettable tracks have exploded, between brick and mortar facilities and ADWs on the internet. A Saturday in June may offer several hundred bettable races to a handicapper in the comfort of their home. Now you can specialize in dirt sprint cheap claiming races and have 25 races to choose from. Forget turf and all the rest. But that's not "really" handicapping.

Home handicappers build spot plays in their own databases or using one of several handicapping programs on the market. Press a button and out plops a detailed analysis of their performance, day by day. We've all seen examples of this on this board. But that's not "really" handicapping.

Large tournaments take off. Winning every single race you bet in a tournament with razor sharp accuracy may leave you mid pack (!!!). Its all about longshots; perhaps protecting your lead; perhaps betting fantastic longshots because that is the only way you can catch up. Win the right tournament and you are publicly crowned Handicapper of the Year. But that's not "really" handicapping.

Professional teams leverage the power of big data analysis to build sophisticated betting models and in some cases, bet over 100 million dollars a year into the pools. Rebates to big volume players adds fuel (gasoline) to the fire. But that's not "really" handicapping.

Smaller teams and even individuals do model based handicapping, now even using machine learning as a tool. Self taught or coming from a big data analytics background, these are people who may have never used a DRF to handicap a race and may be only vaguely familiar with the names Pletcher and Baffert and Saratoga and Tapit. But that's not "really" handicapping.

I have a perhaps irrational soft spot for the "purity" of opening up a DRF and going at it. Maybe its just nostalgia for the simpler days, even though I was never really a participant in those days. Whatever you call all these things people do in response to the question How do I take money out of this race?, it is an amazing smorgasbord of approaches, all of which can be elevated to an art. Or crash and burn.

Ron Tiller
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Old 01-09-2019, 12:15 PM   #8
sjk
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Ron,

I think it has gotten tougher over the years.

Are we competing against the same people who have been playing the races through the years and they are sharpening their tools?

Or are previously successful players losing their edge (and their HDW subscription) because new people are playing at a high level?
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Old 01-09-2019, 12:28 PM   #9
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Great write-ups Ron, very informative and interesting...you definitely have the right question in mind...it is the one I ask each and every race...and since each race is a unique scenario and opportunity/ risk, the challenge to answer that question correctly can be both frustrating and rewarding...and there is always another race just beyond the one in question...I love this process, even though race wagering has evolved/ devolved largely from ‘the sport of Kings”...
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Old 01-10-2019, 01:42 PM   #10
biggestal99
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Betfair allows API betting though its platform. send a betfair bot to the NHC. LOL.


Bots are in it to make money. Period.



They dont pick longshot winners or winners period. They make money. when I put a bet down on betfair and get $.13 (13 cents) matched. its a bot that is out to make money. Betfair tries to discourage this nickle and dime stuff. but from what I have seen unsuccessfully. They have to pay a transaction charge if they exceed 1000 bets per hour. I guess they figure its a cost of making money.


Allan
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Old 01-10-2019, 02:54 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RonTiller View Post
Is the API player (or the model player who executes bets through an interface like Twinspires) a "real" handicapper? It just doesn't matter.

Well, give the API pseudo-handicapper-model-programmer a DRF and send them to the track and the result might be comical (though not always). Give the DRF handicapper MATLAB, some cloud servers, a robust programming platform and several terabytes of raw data and the result might be comical (though not always). Give both of them a popular handicapping program and send them to the NHC tournament and they probably finish mid to bottom pack. This is not to elevate one and denigrate the others. Its fantastically different approaches to answering the fundamental question "How do I take money out of this race / these races / this sport?" In my mind, when done with skill and expertise and success, all of these are things of beauty. Whatever you call them.

OK, OK, there's nothing beautiful about a complete novice betting his kids birthdays and hitting a 2 million dollar pick 6, while you've been struggling for decades to hit anything. On the other hand, maybe there is...

Ron Tiller
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You really should post more often. These last few graphs are a thing of beauty IMO. You hit it out of the park. This is the TRUTH.

That's why I always find it hilariously sad when someone comes on here to denigrate an entire method of play (be it speed figures, pace figures, computer programs, trip handicapping, etc.) as useless.
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Old 01-10-2019, 05:29 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RonTiller View Post
In my mind, when done with skill and expertise and success, all of these are things of beauty. Whatever you call them.

Ron Tiller
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I like it Ron.

I'm no artist but I try to think that way.
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Old 01-10-2019, 07:40 PM   #13
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Trying to discover meaning in a word leads to a recursive procedure than never ends; words mean whatever we use them for so searching for the meaning of “handicapping” is not helpful or helpful as its contents are very subjective.

More than this, I think that if we assume that “horse handicapping” is the process of assigning every starter’s winning probability then the process of mimicking the crowd’s betting habits is a very accurate definition; it is well known and documented that it forms near to optimal betting markets assuming a large enough data sample.

Following an “abc” approach based on well known angles does not present any real value as it results to betting patterns that are very correlated to the public consensus and doing so will destroy any bankroll no matter how large it is.

My definition of handicapping lies in finding bets that contradict “abc” handicapping as it is expressed by classical and well known angles like those reflected in the conditions of the race for example. To be successful doing so, requires the elimination of races where the crowd has a large probability to be proved correct or the risk factor is too high and the race is very chaotic while concentrating on bets that look promising by certain factors that the crowd tends to routinely underestimate or not even been aware of them.

Of course the tricky part of this approach is that the public’s criteria are not static; instead they are changing albeit with a relatively slow rate that the “handicapper” (based on my definition) needs to be ahead of it.
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Old 01-10-2019, 09:03 PM   #14
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That all seems reasonable to me but what about any race in question?

Seems like we agree for the most part, and I really don't care about what I just said about the race in question.

See what I mean?

It comes down to expressing your opinion if you have one.
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Old 01-11-2019, 12:47 PM   #15
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Ron,


Thanks for this. A great read.
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