Pick of the 20-1 litter: Just Steel
Earned a big TFUS fig placing behind Muth in the Arkansas Derby. Track assigned a closing bias, which flatters his early placement. Not many saw past his muddied form at 32-1.
After winning the Ed Brown Stakes—at Churchill—as a 2 y.o., he was no match for Catching Freedom in the Smarty Jones, but held better than Mystic Dan. No match for that one in the muddy Southwest after that. Caught five wide on both turns in the Rebel.
Concede the muddy track to Mystic Dan, toss the double wide trip in the Rebel, and maybe he turns the tables on Catching Freedom at a price in the Derby. Runs evenly early and late. Stamina in the pedigree. Won over the surface. Hall of fame trainer. Things to like.
Peers at 20-1 Encino and Stronghold also worth a look. Although David Aragona at DRF has Encino at 15-1. Maybe Resilience, too, who Aragona has at 25-1. I can do without Mystic Dan, Track Phantom, Dornoch, and Honor Marie (that one especially at Aragona's 12-1).
Beyond that, maybe Grand Mo wants to go farther than the longest shots, but I'd only want a little piece of him from the bottom three choices.
I see Andy Serling has Domestic Product, and Aragona has him 25-1. I can't get there, but tip of the hat.
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