Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
I'm not sure how you know these are "bets". He didn't say you should bet or not bet them depending on whether they are higher than his estimated line---he's just giving us projected odds and telling us we have to figure it out (see the logic in posts 36, 37, and 44). So basically, nothing of use.
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ok replay
CJ -- forgive me didn't know that me calling u by your first name was such an insult ,
even though its been posted on a million websites
how it helps ??
ok info first
1--- you have to stop assuming that every viewer that comes on here has ur insight and your experience
2--- if it so easy to identify bad lines and attach prices to them
why are none of u supposedly real players putting them out here and helping the others.
3---- the prices( my line) i put up are the highest the horses should ever be according to my sims(simulations)
doesn' t mean i will not take a lower price if need be on race day (because i know the real value ).
again don't mean to sound harsh but are you going to give out your exact lines to viewers everyday
if we do live in this parimutuel system world
4---i got 6-1 on (doubles d's revenge )yesterday . for the purpose of the viewers and getting their edge i will
not have to explain this one. hint -- where do you go and get early prices if u have an edge such as this
5--- yes one day does squat but i have more than 400,000 races behind me with positive returns so that statement
holds no value
6-- why forget the contests , there are players who make a good living just playing them so why ignore
these players
7----why have we taken the stand of , well we all know they are bad lines so we deal with it . why???
question -- you make figs and if they were off by ten points on major contenders day in day out
would anyone purchase your product ??
ok how it becomes of extreme value in my opinion
1--i put up a line -- assuming it is a true line and i am correct close to it
what do you do ??
you re write the race with the percentages that is left and assign the other contenders new odds parameters
eg - my line 3-1 that is 20 percent take( all in track take an everything) give or take a few percentages . so now you are left with 80 percent to be divided
by your other contenders . assign them odds according to your interpertation of how u view the race
2- you do a race\(from ur analysis) and both of your contenders are sitting at 4-1 each . on my lines one or ur contenders is 8-5
and your trying to cut down on money when playing a pick 3,4,5,6. don't u just throw him out knowing in advance that my sims are correct .
3--- i get u to look into the future for the horizontals so you the player could save lots of money( very helpful especially on big racing days ). never mind the fact that it is extremely
difficult to get the race results correct .
4- you could easily make a second income using point #4 above by using advanced methods to get 500 to 600 monthly
( now that may not seem much to you but for alot of players it is )
5- i get u o re-evaluate your analysis from where u sit and ask, how is this lunatic saying that
this specific horse is going to be no higher than 4-1, when from where i sit he looks long 8-1 or so.
6- i provide a mirror for truths that certain individuals may not have access to
( now if u are a pro ) and u know who u are , this is probably of no value to you, except to say
please stop putting this info out there!!!!!!!
7-- yes some big prices are easy to spot but what about horses that are closely matched in odds but one has a distinct advantage over the others
what do you do then??
8--- get u to see horses that are high in m-lines that apparently will go
favourties and get u the player to analyze way ahead of time with a cool head. is this really a favourtie here/??
because we all know how emotional this game can be
anyway that is it
depending on where u sit there will be value to what i am saying
and if u cant see it then well what can i say
) It doesn't matter what the results were really, one day and a few bets doesn't mean squat. I'm more interested in how this helps anyone.
as a overlay. The horse flagged for me also. Not from the morning line, but because he had some of the best figures in the race. Did I like the odds he went off as? No, but i still bet him.