Longshot Track

[Prof.Factor]

Counting the 2 bombs last night, Turfway only has 11 longshots on the year from 294 races. That's 1 longshot every 26.7 races.
Average fieldsize is 8.3 and their average return is $11.64 with return ratio to fieldsize $0.70.

In 2018, 21 longshots from 436 races (frequency 1 in 20.76 races).
Average fieldsize 8.4, and return $12.04 with return ratio to fieldsize of $0.71.

In no category does Turfway lead ... they don't even break the top 5 in any category either year.
Even last year when TP had a high longshot hit frequency, 6 other tracks had more:
DED 38 (631) 16.60
RP 27 (475) 17.59
GPW 13 (232) 17.84
OP 27 (505) 18.70
DMR 17 (329) 19.35
KEE 15 (301) 20.06

[46zilzal]

least?...... two Hawthorne and Mountaineer

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Without any data to back up my opinion...my vote unquestionably goes to Oaklawn Park. I encounter more surprise winners there than at anyplace else. My runner-up choice is the Gulfstream Park turf course.

EARLY (first three weeks) I have to agree with you, BUT after, pressers dominate

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Very full fields so far, AE's in almost all of them. A couple of $90 winners last night.

Turfway is on a solid longshot clip right now.
In the last 25 races run.......three board busters:
$51.80
$99.80
$93.40

[jay68802]

Ok, post them. Do not be afraid. I'm not. I post a lot of my plays here. This is not a contest here. 46, Prof. We can bith about the losses over a beer. It's all good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpl5nvu-DnA

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Prof.Factor

Counting the 2 bombs last night, Turfway only has 11 longshots on the year from 294 races. That's 1 longshot every 26.7 races.
Average fieldsize is 8.3 and their average return is $11.64 with return ratio to fieldsize $0.70.

In 2018, 21 longshots from 436 races (frequency 1 in 20.76 races).
Average fieldsize 8.4, and return $12.04 with return ratio to fieldsize of $0.71.

In no category does Turfway lead ... they don't even break the top 5 in any category either year.
Even last year when TP had a high longshot hit frequency, 6 other tracks had more:
DED 38 (631) 16.60
RP 27 (475) 17.59
GPW 13 (232) 17.84
OP 27 (505) 18.70
DMR 17 (329) 19.35
KEE 15 (301) 20.06

I was going to say DMR summer on the turf. It's as if a number of the smaller and mid sized barns save a horse or two that they feel real good about for the summer meet. Look for horses that have been laid up for short breaks or come with one race under their belt.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Prof.Factor

I posted a "Rake and Take" chart and longshot hit frequency chart for 2018 here ...
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1130944

I noticed that in this table you define a longshot as 20-1 or more. I always took a longshot to be any horse longer than his “natural” odds in a race: in a 12 horse field any horse longer than 11-1 is a longshot, in a 5 horse field any horse longer than 4-1 is a longshot.

First, I’d be interested in how others here define “longshot.”

Second, might you able to re-run Turfway (and others?) given the definition above as the criteria?

Thanks!

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

I noticed that in this table you define a longshot as 20-1 or more. I always took a longshot to be any horse longer than his “natural” odds in a race: in a 12 horse field any horse longer than 11-1 is a longshot, in a 5 horse field any horse longer than 4-1 is a longshot.

First, I’d be interested in how others here define “longshot.”

Second, might you able to re-run Turfway (and others?) given the definition above as the criteria?

Thanks!

I think your definition is logical, but I'd think we'd have to start at 10-1 and up if we're talking about prices worth targeting. If we consider 4-1 longshots (even if they technically are) we're going to get a lot of technical noise in any research. I'd rather stick with something obvious like 10-1 or 20-1 and up. Field size may take care of itself as I doubt there are any tracks where you have a bunch of 20-1 shots winning regularly in 6-horse fields.

And thanks to everyone posting their database findings, much appreciated.

[usfgeology]

I'm interested in hearing from the one cat who is so in tune to longshot opportunities that it's in his screen name...

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by cj

Turfway has to be up there too if you can stomach synthetic tracks.

some big prices there yesterday

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Prof.Factor

I posted a "Rake and Take" chart and longshot hit frequency chart for 2018 here ...
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1130944

Thanks for the post.... I'm a filthy casual these days but the numbers give me a good story of where I'm likely to be happy betting. (If I waste too much time finding playable races I'll just not pay attention to horse racing) Much appreciated

It really makes me wonder how tracks like Turf Paradise choose 20.75% as their track take. Do they not understand how betting works?