HELP! Time/Speed, Lengths, Field

[Foolshope]

Could anyone guide me in the right direction on a formula that incorporates time/speed figure, lengths, and field? But only for horses less than 12:1 odds, or top half, generally seen as early competitors.

I'm stuck on this last piece...cant quite make a viable use of the data. Message me!

Thank you
Thank you
Thank you!

[Foolshope]

Anyone?

[Prof.Factor]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

Anyone?

I'm guessing you need to be a little more specific in your request.
Exactly what are you trying to do?

[Foolshope]

Identify board horses and a way to seperate them from others.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

Identify board horses and a way to seperate them from others.

You want someone to give you a handicapping method so you can separate the contenders who are less than 12-1 on the tote board...RIGHT?

[Foolshope]

Well the 12:1 is my own line of separation, unrelated to tote but usually a direct tie to M/L for reference.

I'm just trying to seperate non-longshot (<12:1) horses, or the Morning Line contenders. I'm trying to utilize either speed/pace figures or times, lengths, and horses beaten from past performance in a method someone has obtained great results from. I could pay for it too, if it cooperates with my own process. I'm a pen and paper capper.

This is my one phase I've hit a wall on.
Longshots, sorting, jockeys, trainers, pedigrees, distances, surfaces, etc. are all things I seem to have a handle on for producing regular returns at the track.

But HOW to seperate the contenders with times, pace, lengths, beaten horses I tend to deadend.

[Foolshope]

I'm also more interested in identify the horses regardless of odds, which means I dont need a high ROI system just a guide for finding horses that can hit the board based on those factors I mentioned. (Not tote board, top 3,4,5 board)

It could be something as silly as xyz factor subtracted from ABC factor minus 123 divided by the number of horses in the field only on races within the last 4 months, etc.. just as an example.

A formula
A method
A strategy
A nudge in the right direction

Nothing overly time consuming to pen and paper at the track from a form.

Thanks!!

[Prof.Factor]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

I'm also more interested in identify the horses regardless of odds, which means I dont need a high ROI system just a guide for finding horses that can hit the board based on those factors I mentioned. (Not tote board, top 3,4,5 board)

It could be something as silly as xyz factor subtracted from ABC factor minus 123 divided by the number of horses in the field only on races within the last 4 months, etc.. just as an example.

A formula
A method
A strategy
A nudge in the right direction

Nothing overly time consuming to pen and paper at the track from a form.

Thanks!!

Do you rate horses now? Make your own line?

Sounds like you're looking for a way to improve a pen and paper system you've already developed. Do you try to project/predict horse's performance or speed figure, or what ever rating you use?

[jay68802]

This one calls for some judgement on your part, but I use it in turf routes only.

I hope you use Briss figures or have a way of figuring Late Pace.

Morning line

Less than 3/1: 0 to 8 points.

8/1 to 3/1: between 4 and 10 points.

over 8/1: 6 to 14 points.

Look at the horses running style, make your best judgement on how the race set up will affect a horse. If you think it will help the horse, add how many points to the horse's late pace rating.

Horse A has a Morning line of 2/1, has a E running style with pace and speed figures like this: 80 / 94. (the figures are listed as Late Pace, and Speed figure)

If you think the horse will benefit from the pace match up and is low in odds, you can add up to 8 points to his late pace. Or, if you think that the horse will face pressure the whole race, you can give him 0 points.

With a favorable match up Horse A will end up with figures that look like this: 88 / 98.

With a unfavorable match up the figures will stay the same: 80 / 94

Horse B has a Morning Line of 10/1 and has a S running style and figures that look like this: 84 / 84. If you think the horse is in a favorable match up you can add up to 12 points to his Late Pace. If it is unfavorable add 6.

With a favorable match up Horse B has figures that look like this: 84 / 96

With a unfavorable match up the figures look like this. 90 / 84.

Pretty simple after this, add the 2 numbers together, and divide by 2.

If they would be racing against each other, when Horse A is in the favorable situation, Horse A would be rated at 93, and horse B would be rated at 87.

If Horse B is in the favorable situation, Horse A would be rated at 87 and Horse B would be rated at 90.

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by Prof.Factor

Do you rate horses now? Make your own line?

Sounds like you're looking for a way to improve a pen and paper system you've already developed. Do you try to project/predict horse's performance or speed figure, or what ever rating you use?

Exactly - I'm trying to refine how I seperate my non-longshot, non-key horses. The only data I'm not utilizing is speed/time/pace/lengths/field size which I know could help me based on data artifacts I see in my other calculations. My system is rock solid other than this angle, which I get kinda makes me a backwards capper. But that's how I've always done it since I essentially reverse engineer.

[Foolshope]

@jay68802

I see, so you are saying I should compare the best and worst potentials of each horse? Is this a method you use? I'm looking for generalized but safe data that is more consistent instead of home-runny.

[Prof.Factor]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

Exactly - I'm trying to refine how I seperate my non-longshot, non-key horses. The only data I'm not utilizing is speed/time/pace/lengths/field size which I know could help me based on data artifacts I see in my other calculations. My system is rock solid other than this angle, which I get kinda makes me a backwards capper. But that's how I've always done it since I essentially reverse engineer.

I would create contender groups based on your ratings.
First, determine your seperation method of groups. Use your system win percentages to determine.


horse 1 rating 100
horse 2 rating 99
horse 3 rating 99
horse 4 rating 94
horse 5 rating 92
horse 6 rating 89

Example, hypothetical rating system, lets say we've concluded 3 points produces significant dropoff in win percentage.
So, we seperate our contenders ... Group A, B, C, D

horse 1 rating 100
horse 2 rating 99
horse 3 rating 99
------------------
horse 4 rating 94
------------------
horse 5 rating 91
------------------
horse 6 rating 88


Once we know the weight of 1 point and the strength of each group, we have the beginning to making our own line.

[Prof.Factor]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

Exactly - I'm trying to refine how I seperate my non-longshot, non-key horses. The only data I'm not utilizing is speed/time/pace/lengths/field size which I know could help me based on data artifacts I see in my other calculations. My system is rock solid other than this angle, which I get kinda makes me a backwards capper. But that's how I've always done it since I essentially reverse engineer.

If you're looking to improve your system easily utilizing speed and pace, I don't think that would be possible with pen and paper in a few minutes. Atleast not from scratch, and calculate enough info to be viable improvement.Maybe there is a dirty method, but I don't know it and haven't had the need to think of one. So, sorry.

[Foolshope]

Originally Posted by Prof.Factor

If you're looking to improve your system easily utilizing speed and pace, I don't think that would be possible with pen and paper in a few minutes. Atleast not from scratch, and calculate enough info to be viable improvement.Maybe there is a dirty method, but I don't know it and haven't had the need to think of one. So, sorry.

What about insight on the horses run style best factor to look at? E1? E2? LP? Speed? And how to weight the field and lengths behind? Like maybe a closer type best to look at early pace? Since we already know they sprint at the end...what's enough early pace to keep him relevant? Etc

Thanks!

[Prof.Factor]

Originally Posted by Foolshope

What about insight on the horses run style best factor to look at? E1? E2? LP? Speed? And how to weight the field and lengths behind? Like maybe a closer type best to look at early pace? Since we already know they sprint at the end...what's enough early pace to keep him relevant? Etc

Thanks!

This could get very elaborate with just a calculator and a few minutes.
Do you use E1 E2 LP? I don't, but we can for this.
Do you want to develop a race shape? and are we looking to develop race shape from scratch?
We can do that but we need to calculate fractional averages for each horse as well as average lengths behind for each horse at 2 points of call. And that is just the start. Is your pen and paper up to it? We don't need variants or turn configurations to develop race shape but we will to determine pace advantages.