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Old 07-31-2020, 01:34 AM   #1
drib
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Chad Brown

We all know that racing can be a streaky game, but I do think it is appropriate to note that leading trainer Chad Brown is now on a major losing streak. By my count, he has now lost with his last 18 runners. His horses are overbet, but I would note the list of losers include 2-5 SisterCharlie, and 11 others under 3-1. Only 2 losers were double digit prices. The probability of so many failures is over 1000-1. Chad's horses, particularly on the turf, are known for their extra acceleration over the last 3/16. Today, as an example, he sent out two favorites that loomed up, but were flat going to the wire. The guy has been on his way to an all time great, but I believe this is a trend worth watching. I am old enough to remember the late Oscar Barrera going from a magic worker to 0/95 before his death. At this point, I will chalk it up to just a bad streak, but it better not last much longer.
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Old 07-31-2020, 02:06 AM   #2
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He looks right this Saturday....

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Old 07-31-2020, 07:23 AM   #3
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Brown is not a PED move-up guy.

He does not use PEDs in ability defying, form-defying ways that are obvious to see.

Brown has a bunch of competitive advantages. Skill, Horsemanship, Stock, Expenses/quality, Size, Specialization, Leverage, Jockeys, etc...

He's going to have success with those edges, even if in your imagination that he uses PEDs below radar, and even if in your imagination that source dried up suddenly... (maybe Brown does, maybe everyone on a high level does use PEDs of some form at a low level for basic fitness, I don't know enough about that to make a definitive statement, or to call out one guy randomly).

Unfortunately the FBI stuff this year did not clean up our game.

I still see a lot of PED performances.

Saratoga is a lot cleaner than baseline(for the game, and even for the high standards of Saratoga), and there have been some horses that previously ran on PEDs who have not defied their ability at Saratoga, and there have been some trainers with strings at Saratoga, who typically use PEDs on almost every animal, who have not had their usual performance during this meet. Yet, even at Saratoga, some questionable performances do occur.

Across the country, there are some trainers who are completely gone, and some who have declined significantly, and there are some who juice almost every horse.
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Old 07-31-2020, 07:50 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by drib View Post
We all know that racing can be a streaky game, but I do think it is appropriate to note that leading trainer Chad Brown is now on a major losing streak. By my count, he has now lost with his last 18 runners. His horses are overbet, but I would note the list of losers include 2-5 SisterCharlie, and 11 others under 3-1. Only 2 losers were double digit prices. The probability of so many failures is over 1000-1. Chad's horses, particularly on the turf, are known for their extra acceleration over the last 3/16. Today, as an example, he sent out two favorites that loomed up, but were flat going to the wire. The guy has been on his way to an all time great, but I believe this is a trend worth watching. I am old enough to remember the late Oscar Barrera going from a magic worker to 0/95 before his death. At this point, I will chalk it up to just a bad streak, but it better not last much longer.
chad , pletcher, baffert, they will always dominate racing. money goes to money and regular mortals are just thrown a bone once a while.
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Old 07-31-2020, 09:13 AM   #5
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I am not accusing Brown of anything; let's just chalk his losing to a particularly unusual bad streak. As I noted, he is having a Hall of Fame career......however, should the poor performances of his stable continue (and a random winner in some 4 horse field would change nothing), then it would be time to reconsider. Right now, just something to watch closely.
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Old 07-31-2020, 10:11 AM   #6
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"I didn't accuse him of anything, I just referenced Oscar Barrera in relation to him."

At least you didn't mention Jack the Ripper.
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Old 07-31-2020, 10:14 AM   #7
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An 18 race losing streak is like only 5 days.
I believe that in the last 5 days at Saratoga all of Brown's runners earned a check, even though they failed to win.

Brown will be O.K.

The people that keep betting him or other big name trainers down to odds on are destined to lose.
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Old 07-31-2020, 10:31 AM   #8
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It is 23, not 18, and 21 of those are at Saratoga.
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Old 07-31-2020, 10:31 AM   #9
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"I didn't accuse him of anything, I just referenced Oscar Barrera in relation to him."

At least you didn't mention Jack the Ripper.
Hey, this might just be an unfortunate run , but don't you think someone on the NYRA show should alert bettors to this 1000-1 cold streak? They talk incessantly about all kinds of relatively obscure statistics, most especially ROI's, but no mention of this?

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Old 07-31-2020, 11:47 AM   #10
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Smile coffee!

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Originally Posted by MONEY View Post
An 18 race losing streak is like only 5 days.
I believe that in the last 5 days at Saratoga all of Brown's runners earned a check, even though they failed to win.

Brown will be O.K.

The people that keep betting him or other big name trainers down to odds on are destined to lose.


I'm sure that some of the 23 or 21 were disappointing, but a bunch of these were not standouts or had trips against pace dynamics (or both).

I didn't capitalize, but Brown having a bunch of underlays lose is kind of horseplayer friendly, if anything. For the most part these were horses you didn't even have to use in multis. Sistercharlie is the one 'reluctant include' that my awful memory can even recall(which means nothing factually, ).

With actual 'move up' trainers you are forced to reluctantly include their underlay, even when you don't feel they are the best horse.

With Chad via my vague recollection, there were several ml favs/co-favs/top-3orso?/helpmeouthere types which you could just toss if you saw value elsewhere. The public was going to bet down the Chad Brown in those races, but you weren't afraid of the horse defying their ability and flaws and form to overachieve.

Maybe Sistercharlie you took the underlay as a 'free square', and then you tipped your hat and took the loss like a boss. It happens, and a nice rival got brave on a speed-favoring setup.

Drib is entitled to having a really bad opinion. But it's such a lazy, baseless accusation, that feels like 'sour grapes' from a lazy horseplayer who played a bunch of the recent underlays.

I could be wrong about that. I'm sure there's a bunch of horseplayers who assume that any high percentage barn gets their advantage from 'juicing'. I'm sure Drib is not the first to hurl the accusation at Chad Brown.

Like I said in an earlier post, Brown has so much systemic and quality-based competitive advantage, that even if you work out theories about 'juicing' and 'dry spells', that his success would continue in your imaginary scenarios, regardless...
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Old 07-31-2020, 12:23 PM   #11
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I'm sure that some of the 23 or 21 were disappointing, but a bunch of these were not standouts or had trips against pace dynamics (or both).

I didn't capitalize, but Brown having a bunch of underlays lose is kind of horseplayer friendly, if anything. For the most part these were horses you didn't even have to use in multis. Sistercharlie is the one 'reluctant include' that my awful memory can even recall(which means nothing factually, ).

With actual 'move up' trainers you are forced to reluctantly include their underlay, even when you don't feel they are the best horse.

With Chad via my vague recollection, there were several ml favs/co-favs/top-3orso?/helpmeouthere types which you could just toss if you saw value elsewhere. The public was going to bet down the Chad Brown in those races, but you weren't afraid of the horse defying their ability and flaws and form to overachieve.

Maybe Sistercharlie you took the underlay as a 'free square', and then you tipped your hat and took the loss like a boss. It happens, and a nice rival got brave on a speed-favoring setup.

Drib is entitled to having a really bad opinion. But it's such a lazy, baseless accusation, that feels like 'sour grapes' from a lazy horseplayer who played a bunch of the recent underlays.

I could be wrong about that. I'm sure there's a bunch of horseplayers who assume that any high percentage barn gets their advantage from 'juicing'. I'm sure Drib is not the first to hurl the accusation at Chad Brown.

Like I said in an earlier post, Brown has so much systemic and quality-based competitive advantage, that even if you work out theories about 'juicing' and 'dry spells', that his success would continue in your imaginary scenarios, regardless...
From track bias to hot/cold trainers, a key part of handicapping is identifying trends. I am not accusing Brown of anything nefarious; heck, for all I know there might be a virus sweeping his barn. Yes, as I noted his horses are overbet, but I believe his current losing streak, until he starts winning, can be a useful handicapping tool. Now should he go, say, 3 for his next 100 (I have no reason to think this will happen), a real story would be brewing.

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Old 07-31-2020, 12:53 PM   #12
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Hey, this might just be an unfortunate run , but don't you think someone on the NYRA show should alert bettors to this 1000-1 cold streak? They talk incessantly about all kinds of relatively obscure statistics, most especially ROI's, but no mention of this?
I have knocked, and picked against, most of those runners and I constantly point out how overbet his horses are, especially up here. I am sorry that's not enough for you but I'm good with it.
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Old 07-31-2020, 02:42 PM   #13
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I like betting Chad Brown on Turf.

His horses do take extra money relative to their PPs, but that's because they are more likely to run their "A" race or a new top than horses trained by the average trainer. You have to build that into the fair price.

His ROI on turf over the last 5 years is 1.80. That's better than the track take. If the extra money wasn't justified, his ROI would be dreadful. Obviously, you aren't going to win betting all his turf horses, but within that outperformance are better opportunities than with someone whose horses are getting buried relative to the track take.

It hasn't been as good so far in 2020, but it has been an abbreviated year and he's coming going through a tough streak right now. Still, it's around the track take at 1.69.
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Old 07-31-2020, 03:59 PM   #14
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"I didn't accuse him of anything, I just referenced Oscar Barrera in relation to him."

At least you didn't mention Jack the Ripper.
However, I have seen The Boston "Strangler" on track this year.
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Old 07-31-2020, 04:12 PM   #15
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Looks like another winless day for Chad Brown.
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