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07-31-2020, 01:34 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 175
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Chad Brown
We all know that racing can be a streaky game, but I do think it is appropriate to note that leading trainer Chad Brown is now on a major losing streak. By my count, he has now lost with his last 18 runners. His horses are overbet, but I would note the list of losers include 2-5 SisterCharlie, and 11 others under 3-1. Only 2 losers were double digit prices. The probability of so many failures is over 1000-1. Chad's horses, particularly on the turf, are known for their extra acceleration over the last 3/16. Today, as an example, he sent out two favorites that loomed up, but were flat going to the wire. The guy has been on his way to an all time great, but I believe this is a trend worth watching. I am old enough to remember the late Oscar Barrera going from a magic worker to 0/95 before his death. At this point, I will chalk it up to just a bad streak, but it better not last much longer.
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07-31-2020, 02:06 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
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He looks right this Saturday....
Last edited by taxicab; 07-31-2020 at 02:14 AM.
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07-31-2020, 07:23 AM
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#3
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Brown is not a PED move-up guy.
He does not use PEDs in ability defying, form-defying ways that are obvious to see.
Brown has a bunch of competitive advantages. Skill, Horsemanship, Stock, Expenses/quality, Size, Specialization, Leverage, Jockeys, etc...
He's going to have success with those edges, even if in your imagination that he uses PEDs below radar, and even if in your imagination that source dried up suddenly... (maybe Brown does, maybe everyone on a high level does use PEDs of some form at a low level for basic fitness, I don't know enough about that to make a definitive statement, or to call out one guy randomly).
Unfortunately the FBI stuff this year did not clean up our game.
I still see a lot of PED performances.
Saratoga is a lot cleaner than baseline(for the game, and even for the high standards of Saratoga), and there have been some horses that previously ran on PEDs who have not defied their ability at Saratoga, and there have been some trainers with strings at Saratoga, who typically use PEDs on almost every animal, who have not had their usual performance during this meet. Yet, even at Saratoga, some questionable performances do occur.
Across the country, there are some trainers who are completely gone, and some who have declined significantly, and there are some who juice almost every horse.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 07-31-2020 at 07:26 AM.
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07-31-2020, 07:50 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,629
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drib
We all know that racing can be a streaky game, but I do think it is appropriate to note that leading trainer Chad Brown is now on a major losing streak. By my count, he has now lost with his last 18 runners. His horses are overbet, but I would note the list of losers include 2-5 SisterCharlie, and 11 others under 3-1. Only 2 losers were double digit prices. The probability of so many failures is over 1000-1. Chad's horses, particularly on the turf, are known for their extra acceleration over the last 3/16. Today, as an example, he sent out two favorites that loomed up, but were flat going to the wire. The guy has been on his way to an all time great, but I believe this is a trend worth watching. I am old enough to remember the late Oscar Barrera going from a magic worker to 0/95 before his death. At this point, I will chalk it up to just a bad streak, but it better not last much longer.
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chad , pletcher, baffert, they will always dominate racing. money goes to money and regular mortals are just thrown a bone once a while.
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07-31-2020, 09:13 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 175
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I am not accusing Brown of anything; let's just chalk his losing to a particularly unusual bad streak. As I noted, he is having a Hall of Fame career......however, should the poor performances of his stable continue (and a random winner in some 4 horse field would change nothing), then it would be time to reconsider. Right now, just something to watch closely.
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07-31-2020, 10:11 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,325
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"I didn't accuse him of anything, I just referenced Oscar Barrera in relation to him."
At least you didn't mention Jack the Ripper.
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07-31-2020, 10:14 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Houston Tx.
Posts: 3,130
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An 18 race losing streak is like only 5 days.
I believe that in the last 5 days at Saratoga all of Brown's runners earned a check, even though they failed to win.
Brown will be O.K.
The people that keep betting him or other big name trainers down to odds on are destined to lose.
__________________
Laboratory rats are susceptible to drug addiction, obesity, diabetes, heart disease and cancer.
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07-31-2020, 10:31 AM
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#8
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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It is 23, not 18, and 21 of those are at Saratoga.
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07-31-2020, 10:31 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
"I didn't accuse him of anything, I just referenced Oscar Barrera in relation to him."
At least you didn't mention Jack the Ripper.
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Hey, this might just be an unfortunate run , but don't you think someone on the NYRA show should alert bettors to this 1000-1 cold streak? They talk incessantly about all kinds of relatively obscure statistics, most especially ROI's, but no mention of this?
Last edited by drib; 07-31-2020 at 10:42 AM.
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07-31-2020, 11:47 AM
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#10
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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coffee!
Quote:
Originally Posted by MONEY
An 18 race losing streak is like only 5 days.
I believe that in the last 5 days at Saratoga all of Brown's runners earned a check, even though they failed to win.
Brown will be O.K.
The people that keep betting him or other big name trainers down to odds on are destined to lose.
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I'm sure that some of the 23 or 21 were disappointing, but a bunch of these were not standouts or had trips against pace dynamics (or both).
I didn't capitalize, but Brown having a bunch of underlays lose is kind of horseplayer friendly, if anything. For the most part these were horses you didn't even have to use in multis. Sistercharlie is the one 'reluctant include' that my awful memory can even recall(which means nothing factually, ).
With actual 'move up' trainers you are forced to reluctantly include their underlay, even when you don't feel they are the best horse.
With Chad via my vague recollection, there were several ml favs/co-favs/top-3orso?/helpmeouthere types which you could just toss if you saw value elsewhere. The public was going to bet down the Chad Brown in those races, but you weren't afraid of the horse defying their ability and flaws and form to overachieve.
Maybe Sistercharlie you took the underlay as a 'free square', and then you tipped your hat and took the loss like a boss. It happens, and a nice rival got brave on a speed-favoring setup.
Drib is entitled to having a really bad opinion. But it's such a lazy, baseless accusation, that feels like 'sour grapes' from a lazy horseplayer who played a bunch of the recent underlays.
I could be wrong about that. I'm sure there's a bunch of horseplayers who assume that any high percentage barn gets their advantage from 'juicing'. I'm sure Drib is not the first to hurl the accusation at Chad Brown.
Like I said in an earlier post, Brown has so much systemic and quality-based competitive advantage, that even if you work out theories about 'juicing' and 'dry spells', that his success would continue in your imaginary scenarios, regardless...
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-31-2020, 12:23 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I'm sure that some of the 23 or 21 were disappointing, but a bunch of these were not standouts or had trips against pace dynamics (or both).
I didn't capitalize, but Brown having a bunch of underlays lose is kind of horseplayer friendly, if anything. For the most part these were horses you didn't even have to use in multis. Sistercharlie is the one 'reluctant include' that my awful memory can even recall(which means nothing factually, ).
With actual 'move up' trainers you are forced to reluctantly include their underlay, even when you don't feel they are the best horse.
With Chad via my vague recollection, there were several ml favs/co-favs/top-3orso?/helpmeouthere types which you could just toss if you saw value elsewhere. The public was going to bet down the Chad Brown in those races, but you weren't afraid of the horse defying their ability and flaws and form to overachieve.
Maybe Sistercharlie you took the underlay as a 'free square', and then you tipped your hat and took the loss like a boss. It happens, and a nice rival got brave on a speed-favoring setup.
Drib is entitled to having a really bad opinion. But it's such a lazy, baseless accusation, that feels like 'sour grapes' from a lazy horseplayer who played a bunch of the recent underlays.
I could be wrong about that. I'm sure there's a bunch of horseplayers who assume that any high percentage barn gets their advantage from 'juicing'. I'm sure Drib is not the first to hurl the accusation at Chad Brown.
Like I said in an earlier post, Brown has so much systemic and quality-based competitive advantage, that even if you work out theories about 'juicing' and 'dry spells', that his success would continue in your imaginary scenarios, regardless...
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From track bias to hot/cold trainers, a key part of handicapping is identifying trends. I am not accusing Brown of anything nefarious; heck, for all I know there might be a virus sweeping his barn. Yes, as I noted his horses are overbet, but I believe his current losing streak, until he starts winning, can be a useful handicapping tool. Now should he go, say, 3 for his next 100 (I have no reason to think this will happen), a real story would be brewing.
Last edited by drib; 07-31-2020 at 12:32 PM.
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07-31-2020, 12:53 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,325
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drib
Hey, this might just be an unfortunate run , but don't you think someone on the NYRA show should alert bettors to this 1000-1 cold streak? They talk incessantly about all kinds of relatively obscure statistics, most especially ROI's, but no mention of this?
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I have knocked, and picked against, most of those runners and I constantly point out how overbet his horses are, especially up here. I am sorry that's not enough for you but I'm good with it.
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07-31-2020, 02:42 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
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I like betting Chad Brown on Turf.
His horses do take extra money relative to their PPs, but that's because they are more likely to run their "A" race or a new top than horses trained by the average trainer. You have to build that into the fair price.
His ROI on turf over the last 5 years is 1.80. That's better than the track take. If the extra money wasn't justified, his ROI would be dreadful. Obviously, you aren't going to win betting all his turf horses, but within that outperformance are better opportunities than with someone whose horses are getting buried relative to the track take.
It hasn't been as good so far in 2020, but it has been an abbreviated year and he's coming going through a tough streak right now. Still, it's around the track take at 1.69.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-31-2020, 03:59 PM
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#14
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
"I didn't accuse him of anything, I just referenced Oscar Barrera in relation to him."
At least you didn't mention Jack the Ripper.
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However, I have seen The Boston "Strangler" on track this year.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-31-2020, 04:12 PM
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#15
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Looks like another winless day for Chad Brown.
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