The Haskell

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I consider Dr. Post's effort disappointing and without much of an excuse.

The race may have flowed towards the front, but imo that's because the 3/5 favorite is a very fast and very good horse and NY Traffic is no slouch with quite a bit early speed himself. He couldn't stay with Authentic or challenge him when he tried, but imo he ran really well. All the off the pace horses were overmatched horses or horses that prefer to be on or close to the lead that were taken back/outrun (or both). To me, Dr Post ran his race. He's a pretty good horse at this stage, but not a serious Derby threat unless he gets better. I take his performance as raising questions about the quality of the Belmont Stakes and Tiz the Law.

I think he ran about what I'd expect given the pace setup the winner got. I found that disappointing that nobody else went. Horses like the 4 and 6 had little chance, but not trying to go early made little into zero. I really liked Dr. Post but luckily he was bet pretty heavily so I stayed away.

[Immortal6]

Watching NY Traffic almost come back to win makes me that much more disappointed/depressed in my big futures wager I had on Maxfield. I think Dr. Post effort here does Tiz The Law no favors. I was crucified before the Belmont for questioning the class TTL has ran against and I still stand by it. I DO THINK TTL is the top contender but I don’t feel as sure about him as I did on Justify and Max Sec the past two years. With the derby being moved back I think we will see horses like Art Collector, Honor AP, and maybe even the Brad Cox runner whose name escapes me continue to improve.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I think he ran about what I'd expect given the pace setup the winner got. I found that disappointing that nobody else went. Horses like the 4 and 6 had little chance, but not trying to go early made little into zero. I really liked Dr. Post but luckily he was bet pretty heavily so I stayed away.

I projected the pace to be faster also. Hell, I thought Smith might decide to sit a couple of lengths off the pace with Authentic if anyone got very aggressive.

One thing I've learned about much cheaper speeds is that no matter what their pace figures and styles say, when they move way up in class they sometimes get outrun out of the gate or put away so quickly by the better horses they just drop out and become irrelevant. Someone else mentioned something along those lines earlier in the thread and it turned out to be correct.

[aaron]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I projected the pace to be faster also. Hell, I thought Smith might decide to sit a couple of lengths off the pace with Authentic if anyone got very aggressive.

One thing I've learned about much cheaper speeds is that no matter what their pace figures and styles say, when they move way up in class they sometimes get outrun out of the gate or put away so quickly by the better horses they just drop out and become irrelevant. Someone else mentioned something along those lines earlier in the thread and it turned out to be correct.

Very good observation. There was a race during the week where I felt 2 or 3 cheap stretch out horses might go and none of them did. A very logical Ortiz brother exacta came in. What a great game.

[cj]

Originally Posted by aaron

Very good observation. There was a race during the week where I felt 2 or 3 cheap stretch out horses might go and none of them did. A very logical Ortiz brother exacta came in. What a great game.

I've seen that happen, but I don't think that was the case in the Haskell. The other didn't even try. Check out the replay, 4 and 6 just choked back right from the start.

YouTube

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

I've seen that happen, but I don't think that was the case in the Haskell. The other didn't even try. Check out the replay, 4 and 6 just choked back right from the start.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PI-JL8EnFBc

was interesting that Jerry Bailey (or maybe it was Randy Moss) had that scoop before the race as I had not read that anywhere. Would have been nice to know.

[jay68802]

Or, another point of view. The "other" speeds wanted nothing to do with the best horse on the front. 0 of those horses have dealt with a horse of this caliber. Smith did the right thing, put the best horse up front and let the others deal with it. Perfect ride for that race.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Or, another point of view. The "other" speeds wanted nothing to do with the best horse on the front. 0 of those horses have dealt with a horse of this caliber. .

This is part of the discussion we often have on riding strategy.

Sometimes it's hard to know who the fastest highest quality speed is (or will be on that day because form changes) and it's always difficult to know if anyone is going to try to run with him.

If you know there is a much higher quality speed in the race, should you push hard to go with him anyway and potentially (probably) get buried badly or should you sit and try to salvage a better placing and piece of the purse going against your natural style?

It probably depends on the horses involved, but the clearly cheaper ones often get outrun or put away quickly no matter what their pace figures say or they decide to sit rather than push hard and commit suicide like a rabbit just to get the main speed beat too.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This is part of the discussion we often have on riding strategy.

Sometimes it's hard to know who the fastest highest quality speed is (or will be on that day because form changes) and it's always difficult to know if anyone is going to commit suicide trying to run with him.

If you know there is a much higher quality speed in the race and he's going, should you push hard to go with him anyway and potentially (probably) get buried badly or should you sit and try to salvage a better placing and piece of the purse going against your natural style?

It probably depends on the horses involved, but the clearly cheaper ones often get outrun or put away quickly no matter what their pace figures say or they decide to sit rather than commit suicide like a rabbit just to get the main speed beat too.

The speeds that didn't go finished last and next to last. That is what happens much more often than not in my experience. If you are afraid of the other speed, you should probably enter a different race. It isn't like Authentic was a surprise entry.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I projected the pace to be faster also. Hell, I thought Smith might decide to sit a couple of lengths off the pace with Authentic if anyone got very aggressive.

When you are alone on the lead, AND you have a tractable horse, you slow it down as much as possible...That is commonplace

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

The speeds that didn't go finished last and next to last. That is what happens much more often than not in my experience. If you are afraid of the other speed, you should probably enter a different race. It isn't like Authentic was a surprise entry.

I was way wrong on the pace. So there's that.

However, both those horses were so overmatched they were going to get killed no matter what they did. They may have just been in the race to help fill it and hope for 4th or 5th money. They got 12.5K each just to run 6th and 7th without killing their horses.

IMO, it's tough to know what to do with some horses. It's an individual thing that's not always knowable beforehand. Sometimes the connections are trying to change or teach a horse. But if you are clearly overmatched, you are going to get killed going hard early.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I was way wrong on the pace. So there's that.

However, both those horses were so overmatched they were going to get killed no matter what they did. They may have just been in the race to help fill it and hope for 4th or 5th money. They got 12.5K each just to run 6th and 7th without killing their horses.

IMO, it's tough to know what to do with some horses. It's an individual thing that's not always knowable beforehand. But if you are clearly overmatched, you are going to get killed going hard early.

If that is the case it is a sad indictment on the sport. There was a million dollar purse and a couple horses weren't trying to win. Plenty of horses outrun their odds big time by going fast early and trying to hold on. The horses that don't go early and outrun their odds generally have no speed early on and clunk up for a piece. That almost never happens with speed horses.

The 4 and 6 here were clearly speed horses. If the owners or trainers thought otherwise, they are delusional. I'd say both of those horses are too good to waste a start for 12.5k. The 6 horse has already earned 225k in nine starts LOL.

In the end it is up to handicappers to figure out what is going to happen. I almost never base a bet on predicted pace unless I'm getting very juicy odds. The game has changed quite a bit and horses are rated a lot more than they used to be.

[aaron]

Originally Posted by cj

If that is the case it is a sad indictment on the sport. There was a million dollar purse and a couple horses weren't trying to win. Plenty of horses outrun their odds big time by going fast early and trying to hold on. The horses that don't go early and outrun their odds generally have no speed early on and clunk up for a piece. That almost never happens with speed horses.

The 4 and 6 here were clearly speed horses. If the owners or trainers thought otherwise, they are delusional. I'd say both of those horses are too good to waste a start for 12.5k. The 6 horse has already earned 225k in nine starts LOL.

In the end it is up to handicappers to figure out what is going to happen. I almost never base a bet on predicted pace unless I'm getting very juicy odds. The game has changed quite a bit and horses are rated a lot more than they used to be.

Excellent post. If we have to bet $1000000.00 races where horses do not run to their pp.s,whats the point to having pp's. Can you imagine what is really going on on a daily basis. This is part of the problem with racing. I have seen oversea's racing where jockey's and trainers have been called in to explain their actions. In the US it seems to be anything goes. If this only happened occasionally, I could see not calling in the jockey's and trainers. The problem is this happens every day at every track.It is one of the reasons racing is not considered a major sport any longer.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

If that is the case it is a sad indictment on the sport. There was a million dollar purse and a couple horses weren't trying to win. Plenty of horses outrun their odds big time by going fast early and trying to hold on. The horses that don't go early and outrun their odds generally have no speed early on and clunk up for a piece. That almost never happens with speed horses.

Saying they weren't trying to win is probably a bit too harsh.

It's more like, "we know are going to be 50-1 and we aren't going to put away Authentic in a speed duel if he brings his "A" game. So let's break, see what he does, if he goes then we'll sit and hope a few horse misfire, our horse has a great day, and we get a piece or there's a miracle".

Lebda just sat behind a speed horse and closed him down. The difference being he wasn't chasing Authentic and NY Traffic and only needed an 80 Beyer to win.

Even the sprinter finished well last time (albeit after a bad start and only 6F).

I don't know what to say.

The game is what it is. Guys are not going to run their speed horses into the ground to ensure a fast pace. They are going to take the lead when they think they have the best horse or it gets handed to them. The one common exception is very large fields where you have to use your horse just to get decent position. So that's the way we have to bet it.

[jay68802]

Really good point CJ. Makes me want to watch where both horses end up in their next start. Will they happen to end up in a "soft" spot?