The Haskell

[Half Smoke]

......................


the big race Saturday, the Haskell, will be televised by ABC

I like the 2nd fave - Dr Post

I expect him to be in the money - with only a 7 horse field he should have room to close

post 1 is a concern - I guess Bravo will handle it

in their lone tries at 9 furlongs the sure to be fave Authentic lost ground in the stretch while Dr Post gained

I'm skeptical of speed figures - I note that Dr Post was more than 2 seconds faster at Belmont on a fast track then Authentic was at Santa Anita on a fast track at the same distance - I'm skeptical of final times too but mentioned it anyway

also hoping karma will keep Baffert out of the winner's circle

looks like a nice setup to have the name brand ranked horse Authentic over bet and letting Dr Post go off at decent odds

Monmouth is known as a speed favoring track so that will help Authentic and also cause him to get bet down

- you can't have everything



.

[Appy]

What is the effect from Baffert's 15 day suspension (which he is appealing) with regard to running at SAR?

[Robert Fischer]

have to figure Authentic will be 'ALL-IN!' for this one

through other stars' injuries and such, he's kinda inherited 'Ace' status for the barn, has pointed to this race for some time, and he fits the race like a glove.

Hasn't been training quite to level of some of the many once-in-a-generation athletes that we frequently see there, but he has been training very well.

Also a nice handsome colt.

maybe a tiny bit of apprehension regarding the climate and the attention surrounding the connections, but it has never affected them before, particularly in the Haskell.

Also a little bit of 'fuzzy' surrounding the Jockey, and how/if this will affect any quarantine/'bubble' stuff, or whether that isn't going to officially start until after this opportunity.


While Authentic would not surprise with a 'brilliant' performance, there are some other cool horses.

Lebda is a hard-hitter for Maryland's super-trainer. He had some pace adversity in the Ohio Derby, but ultimately flattened-out a bit even relative to pace. Barn is dangerous to improve, but the quality of pace rivals is intimidating here.

N.Y. Traffic is another stubborn pace rival, and has another amazing trainer, but seems just a notch below.


Dr. Post took money in the Belmont Stakes. He looked really nice on the track. Visually impressive on the track, I think I said "he looks like a poor man's Quality Road" (a compliment, and referring to his sire). He also ran a solid 2nd.

Depending on how speed-favoring things go, we could see Authentic run them off their feet, and Dr. Post, as well as Ancient Warrior attempt to stalk and pick up pieces.

Ancient Warrior had a troubled break last time, and unintentionally had to come from further off the pace, but improved while doing so.

[GMB@BP]

Morning line is way off in this one, the 1 and the 2 will be a lot closer in odds than that morning line.

[Half Smoke]

......................


my comment that Dr Post's final time in his last race was more than 2 seconds faster than Authentic's in his last race at the same distance was incorrect

it was only a little more than one second faster



.

[jay68802]

Authentic

Dr Post

Jesus' Team

Ny Traffic

[Profesor]

I think your horse has a very good chance to be in the money
It’s a 7 horse field and 4 of them can’t run 😂😂😂 The exacta w/ your horse under Authentic could pay between 3/5 and even money on top of authentic we cold get up to 8 bucks.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

......................


the big race Saturday, the Haskell, will be televised by ABC

I like the 2nd fave - Dr Post

I expect him to be in the money - with only a 7 horse field he should have room to close

post 1 is a concern - I guess Bravo will handle it

in their lone tries at 9 furlongs the sure to be fave Authentic lost ground in the stretch while Dr Post gained

I'm skeptical of speed figures - I note that Dr Post was more than 2 seconds faster at Belmont on a fast track then Authentic was at Santa Anita on a fast track at the same distance - I'm skeptical of final times too but mentioned it anyway

also hoping karma will keep Baffert out of the winner's circle

looks like a nice setup to have the name brand ranked horse Authentic over bet and letting Dr Post go off at decent odds

Monmouth is known as a speed favoring track so that will help Authentic and also cause him to get bet down

- you can't have everything



.

Actually it's being shown on NBC.

[classhandicapper]

On paper the race sets up well for Dr. Post given all the speed in the race.

On the flip side this is a million dollar race and Bob Baffert is not a fool. He knows there's a lot of speed in the race. The question is whether Authentic can rate a few lengths off the pace, move on the turn, and still finish at 9F if necessary. I checked his recent workouts to see if they were working him in company behind horses, but he's been working alone.

I think Authentic is the better horse so far and could even take a step forward today 2nd off that 3 month layoff, but he feels more like a miler that can stretch a little further and not a horse that wants to go a lot further.

IMO, it's kind of a bet on whether Authentic can sit and finish at 9F and I'm not sure there's going to be much value either way unless you like someone else.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

On paper the race sets up well for Dr. Post given all the speed in the race.

On the flip side this is a million dollar race and Bob Baffert is not a fool. He knows there's a lot of speed in the race. The question is whether Authentic can rate a few lengths off the pace, move on the turn, and still finish at 9F if necessary. I checked his recent workouts to see if they were working him in company behind horses, but he's been working alone.

I think Authentic is the better horse so far and could even take a step forward today 2nd off that 3 month layoff, but he feels more like a miler that can stretch a little further and not a horse that wants to go a lot further.

IMO, it's kind of a bet on whether Authentic can sit and finish at 9F and I'm not sure there's going to be much value either way unless you like someone else.

Can agree with this. But why sit off the pace here? You have the best horse in the race, so use him. Take it to them. Sort of like ACDC. Simple and direct. Do what you do best and screw the others.

[aaron]

If Authentic wires this field,I'll tip my hat to him. Any kind of a price on Dr. Post makes him a bet. Problem is I wouldn't be surprised if he is 8/5.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by aaron

If Authentic wires this field,I'll tip my hat to him. Any kind of a price on Dr. Post makes him a bet. Problem is I wouldn't be surprised if he is 8/5.

Authentic draws pretty well, in the post, sandwiched between stalkers.

Pretty fair run to the first turn 9F Monmouth.
This works both ways -Outside horses have time to try to send and clear, but it also gives Mike Smith a chance to solidify position, somewhere forward, reasonably ground-saving.

I believe Authentic has the fastest cruising speed, but I don't see pace-scenario being a danger to him.

[aaron]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Authentic draws pretty well, in the post, sandwiched between stalkers.

Pretty fair run to the first turn 9F Monmouth.
This works both ways -Outside horses have time to try to send and clear, but it also gives Mike Smith a chance to solidify position, somewhere forward, reasonably ground-saving.

I believe Authentic has the fastest cruising speed, but I don't see pace-scenario being a danger to him.

Authentic has either won on the lead or right off the lead. Smith's decision when the gates open will probably determine the race. With that said, the horse is coming off a big top on the numbers I use and probably shorter rest than he is accustomed to. For me it looks like a play against.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by aaron

Authentic has either won on the lead or right off the lead. Smith's decision when the gates open will probably determine the race. With that said, the horse is coming off a big top on the numbers I use and probably shorter rest than he is accustomed to. For me it looks like a play against.

Not sure I have seen so much cheap speed in such a big race, pace should be in sane.

My prediction, if Mike puts the horse on the lead in 22 45 109 and he loses, he gets roasted on social media.

I thought the horse race fine sitting slightly off it in the SA Derby and do not see why he has to be sent against cheap speed.

I like Dr Post, I never thought that much of Authentic.

[GMB@BP]

As a side note I cant recall the last time ABC televised a horse race on non cable TV since the TC series left the network, maybe I have missed something the past few years but I dont recall it.