Past posting

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Tons.

Yes.

yea, of course...these computer teams are betting on very slim margins, having that late data is probably the difference between making and losing money in the long run.

[metro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Tons.

Yes.

.....which proves my point.

All of those syndicates and whales.

All of those tracks.

All of those races.

All of those bets.

Playing "beat the clock."

and they never get shut out.

[Sea Hero]

Just because the common guy can't get a bet down after the gate opens doesn't mean that nobody is able to do it. If you want to believe that this industry is pristine, then believe it. I don't. Wherever there are large amounts of money, there are unscrupulous people who want it.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by metro

.....which proves my point.

All of those syndicates and whales.

All of those tracks.

All of those races.

All of those bets.

Playing "beat the clock."

and they never get shut out.

I am sure they do sometimes, remember its all computerized so when they hit send when that very last horse is going into the gate the tickets are purchased.

[MJC922]

I see a lot of talk about horses going into the gate in this thread. I'm not sure it has any relevance whatsoever to what these teams are doing. What really matters is when bets are no longer being processed from a location.

When bets are no longer being accepted at a specific and possibly remote location is I suspect relevant to what these people are doing. The system is not air tight, there's already a history and what's known is only what was discovered. Like anything else there's probably ten times more going on than that. People are watching on BC day, who watches closely on a cold Tuesday in November upstate? Just as many? How many eyes do they have on the betting that are paid enough to care or (worse still) paid enough not to.

Past posting may not be going on everywhere, though I believe it's possible in some locations that are under less scrutiny. I certainly wouldn't want to bet my life on how secure tote systems are when government systems have been hacked.

I've personally seen windows left open until after horses have crossed the line, only twice in maybe ten years but that's one track, so i know it's possible. I did the same thing as class did, I'm honest, I didn't punch tickets to see if I could get away with it. I have also seen this occur with a well known ADW the windows left open until 30 or 40 seconds into races on several occasions including once when they crossed the finish line and typically this ADW closes betting a bit before the on track windows do.

[KingAnon]

Everyone in this thread just needs to watch this video to know what is going on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B0mGYZqElo

A couple of smart people wrote some computer algorithm's and made enough money with it that they can automate the rest. Racetracks openly give them whatever info they need since they spent the most money and I'm sure the trainers/jockeys are happy to help for a cut too.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by metro

and they never get shut out.

What makes you think they never get shut out?

Also, it's pretty easy never to get shut out...all you have to do is run an analysis at every track you're going to bet...what's the average time in seconds until race start when X number of horses remain to be put into the gate. Then you know about how much minimum time you need in order to get your bets in.

Put in a little fudge factor...and you're pretty much guaranteed to never get shut out...

[Poindexter]

I have mentioned this before to a non enthusiastic reception, but if you aren't going to eliminate rebates, require all rebated wagers to be in by 2 minutes to post. That way

1) most of the heavy betting is done by the 2 minute mark and the late odds swings will be far less pronounced

2) the non rebated casual bettor at least gets a much better idea of what the true odds are going to be, giving him/her a benefit nor currently available.

3) If the teams or other rebated bettors want to bet later than the 2 minute mark they can, it will just be sans rebate.

these teams are so "awesome" at modeling they should have no problem getting their bets down at the 2 minute mark.


This alone would make the game a lot better than it currently is imo.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

these teams are so "awesome" at modeling they should have no problem getting their bets down at the 2 minute mark.

It continues to amaze me how some handicappers refuse to believe there are people out there orders of magnitude more advanced at playing this game then they are...

They put "awesome" in quotes, as if something underhanded has to be going on...there is just NO WAY they could be doing this legitimately, they think.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by KingAnon

Everyone in this thread just needs to watch this video to know what is going on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B0mGYZqElo

A couple of smart people wrote some computer algorithm's and made enough money with it that they can automate the rest. Racetracks openly give them whatever info they need since they spent the most money and I'm sure the trainers/jockeys are happy to help for a cut too.

THIS is what the problem is.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It continues to amaze me how some handicappers refuse to believe there are people out there orders of magnitude more advanced at playing this game then they are...

They put "awesome" in quotes, as if something underhanded has to be going on...there is just NO WAY they could be doing this legitimately, they think.

Total misread by you. I was putting the "awesome" in quotes because I expect the response to be we can never require the whales to put their bets in with 2 minutes to post time and we have to cater to the whales (because every month is feed the whale month in the racing industry) but if their modeling is that good and I do believe it is they can adapt and get their bets in with 2 minutes to post.

I don't know if past posting goes on or not, I suspect not and I agree with you you that the whales are good enough to beat this game without it.

I don't know why so many take my posts the wrong way. I just want the game to get better and thrive. It happens to be the preferred gambling game for me and I want as many casual bettors playing against me as possible. I don't want to go against mainly sharps and whales, especially when they get fat rebates and I don't. Nobody else gambling on this game should want that either.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It continues to amaze me how some handicappers refuse to believe there are people out there orders of magnitude more advanced at playing this game then they are...

They put "awesome" in quotes, as if something underhanded has to be going on...there is just NO WAY they could be doing this legitimately, they think.

As I said earlier in the thread, whether it's legitimate or not really makes no difference in the end. If there's a group that's going to take 90% of the profits, then that's not a game I want to invest in. Racing has certainly acted like it doesn't care if it seems "legitimate", which is a large part of the reason why other than the Derby, Saratoga, and maybe Keeneland and Del Mar, it's living off casino revenue and the last dying generation that plays it.

[metro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

What makes you think they never get shut out?

Also, it's pretty easy never to get shut out...all you have to do is run an analysis at every track you're going to bet...what's the average time in seconds until race start when X number of horses remain to be put into the gate. Then you know about how much minimum time you need in order to get your bets in.

Put in a little fudge factor...and you're pretty much guaranteed to never get shut out...

You're reaching.

Average loading times? C'mon, these guys aren't focusing on Assinobia Downs.

There's too much money at stake for both the syndicates/whales and the tracks for them to not work together to insure that their bets are in. When the tracks hit the close of wagering bell that are also accepting all wagers that have been queued by the syndicates.

If you and others don't agree so be it, but to me it's the only logical answer of the huge late odds changes we all are subjected to. To prove me wrong is to have a Saratoga/Keeneland/Del Mar type open their pari-mutuel books to a third party. Their race to race reports will show the majority of money coming in, and time stamped, at the exact moment all the pools close. Data on those bets will consistently show the same locales as well. You want' even have to the whole race report. Just whatever makes up the last few seonds.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by metro

You're reaching.

Average loading times? C'mon, these guys aren't focusing on Assinobia Downs.

There's too much money at stake for both the syndicates/whales and the tracks for them to not work together to insure that their bets are in. When the tracks hit the close of wagering bell that are also accepting all wagers that have been queued by the syndicates.

Your theory makes zero sense.

When the tracks hit the close button they automatically accept all the wagers "that have been queued?"?????????

How is that going to work? When are the teams "queuing" these bets? They can't determine the bets they are going to make until the last possible moment....they need as close to the "last flash" as possible to make this work.

So how are their bets gonna sit in a queue waiting to be submitted with the bell, when they don't even calculate the bets until the last possible moment? The bets have to be determined and then sent ASAP as close to the bell as possible. There is no "queue" because that wouldn't work...would it?

And why would they care if they get shut out of a particular race? They are running like a CASINO...they are guaranteed to make money over the long term...essentially...it doesn't matter if they get shut out every now and then...they aren't operating on the "BIG SCORE" principle of making bank....they are playing the percentages, just like a casino. So getting shut out once in a while just isn't that big a deal.

[classhandicapper]

I don't doubt that sophisticated computers looking at every combination in every pool and analyzing endless amounts of data on player betting patterns can find inefficiencies to exploit. However, as far back as the late 80s when I would compare exacta payoffs to win prices trying to decide if I was better off betting my horse to win or with a wheel/partial wheel in the exacta, the late money used to bring the pools more in sync. So either a lot of people were already doing that manually back then or when large sums of more sophisticated money comes in at the end it tends to make the pools more efficient anyway.

These days, everyone and his mother is looking to make a score in the Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6. No one is looking for $3.00 on a horse with a 75% chance of finishing 1st or 2nd. Those still exist, but the late money comes in there also.