Handicapping Turf Sprints

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Tom

No one asked for a positive roi angle - he asked for ideas of what has worked for us in the pas
t.
Thread, aside from your reply, was pretty much spot on in doing that. Sorry that in all your years of playing, you have nothing of substance to offer. Perhaps you will get an idea from theses nice replies by successful handicappers.

You should see the posts in Schwartz'ies FB pages....

Totally useless posts and big time Red Boarding crap.....

The best part he's oblivious to what he posts and the comments after it...

PA Mike....Dont get any ideas...

Please shoot me if I turn out like that!!!

PA Mike.....Dont get any ideas....

[Robert Fischer]

Dave Schwartz has shared valuable time and knowledge w/ me, so he's OK in my book.

Turf Sprints? = I stink at them, in a predictive sense.

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Show me REAL evidence of a positive ROI in conditions like this as I have NEVER KNOWN ANYONE who was able to muster a positive one....EVER

How can I EVER bet on a Turf Sprint (aside from 'action', and multi-filler?)?

How can ANYONE EVER bet on Turf Sprint, and how does ANYONE, EVER show a positive ROI in turf sprints??

ROI is a metric of Value (rather than pure 'accuracy').

You can bet on anything.

If you want a positive ROI betting on the weather, you're gonna need to think like a Meteorologist and a Mobster.

the type of Process that separates an investor from a gamble on a single result.

W/ Turf Sprints this means back to fundamental things in a pari-mutuel betting market on horses; Favorites that are over-valued or even false,
Long-shots that are undervalued or even contenders...

It helps to know the circuit and the horses intimately.

I can glance at a one-turn Dirt Route, and 'blink' or something, and have the contenders jump off the page for me. Whether it's easier, or more interesting to me, I'm OK w/ dirt routes. I can't do that with Turf Sprints.

Especially in a full field, with variety of stories and pace, and even the randomness of the break can seem to affect a turf sprint.

I tend to do better in a value race Turf Sprint when I really know the favorite, and I know that he is an unlikely winner, or I really know a likely contender who isn't taking money.
I tend to do OK with multi-race filler, when I know the horses intimately, and understand the tote board.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

You should see the posts in Schwartz'ies FB pages....

Totally useless posts and big time Red Boarding crap.....

Since Dave's face book is a cooperative effort in educating one another who use HSH's myriad of approaches to elucidating races, most of the posts there (like ANY OTHER OF ALL THE POPULAR HANDICAPPING BOOKS TODAY ON THE MARKET), explain novel and innovative approaches to winning particular races. How else does one demonstrate a SUCCESSFUL approach (of which no angle is even 50% accurate at predicting) unless some one demonstrates it when it was successful?

I have learned much in reading others approaches: don't always agree but it is necessary to broaden ones mind as to how to help understanding a very complicate game....Anyone who is serious at this game should never close the door to learning more about it, and there are many skilled practitioners of HSH's multiple avenues of information evaluation presented there for all to use in whatever way they choose...THERE IS NO ONE WAY: never has never will be.

How does one expand their horizons in novel approaches to handicapping and wagering without positive examples?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

How does one expand their horizons in novel approaches to handicapping and wagering without positive examples?

That was the purpose of this thread........

[classhandicapper]

Turf sprints of 5F and 5.5F tend to go wire to wire a high percentage of the time at some tracks. The problem is they also tend to be loaded with early speed. That makes figuring out the speed of the sped a little problematical. It often comes down to who just happened to be quickest out the gate on THAT DAY. The more obvious ones get bet down to the point that there's little value or they are underlays.

The other problem is that if you use speed figures you'll often find races where 5-7 horses are within just few Beyer points. Given the limitations on the accuracy of figures, a length here or there isn't much of a margin of safety. You might be betting what looks like the fastest horse on figures but he's actually 7th fastest and that 10-1 you thought was good value actually wasn't.

IMO, these races are really tough unless you have some some unique insights.

[Tom]

Those are the races where the public is confused.
That is where the money is.
Dig deeper.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

You want to make money long term.

5f or less turf sprint

3700 plays ROI 1.04 (skeptical handicapper)

Fastest opening fraction in the last 10 races.

Quite simple and a money maker.

Thanks

Allan

Eye ball scan it -

21.0 = 0
21,1 = 1
21.2 = 2

23.0 = 10

24.0 = 20

If you need beaten length, add a point and a hlaf per length

Another thing I do is look at race today's length of shorter and use the best two first call positions.

A horse who led at two races gets a 2, etc.

I rank them by that number and the lowest first call time rating.
I go up to 5.5F on turf for this and do good at Toga.

[Tom]

Saratoga R6 Opening Day

POS is the sum of the two lowest FCP at today's date or shorter.
Second cloumn is fastst time at FCP, using just fifths
Third column is the BRIS E1 ratings - highest showing

[CBYRacer]

Originally Posted by Tom

Saratoga R6 Opening Day

POS is the sum of the two lowest FCP at today's date or shorter.
Second cloumn is fastst time at FCP, using just fifths
Third column is the BRIS E1 ratings - highest showing

These seem like good ideas, Tom. I appreciate you sharing and will take a look at them.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Turf sprints of 5F and 5.5F tend to go wire to wire a high percentage of the time at some tracks. The problem is they also tend to be loaded with early speed. That makes figuring out the speed of the sped a little problematical. It often comes down to who just happened to be quickest out the gate on THAT DAY. The more obvious ones get bet down to the point that there's little value or they are underlays.

The other problem is that if you use speed figures you'll often find races where 5-7 horses are within just few Beyer points. Given the limitations on the accuracy of figures, a length here or there isn't much of a margin of safety. You might be betting what looks like the fastest horse on figures but he's actually 7th fastest and that 10-1 you thought was good value actually wasn't.

IMO, these races are really tough unless you have some some unique insights.

This is literally what I wrote a few days ago, except I didn't use the word "problematical".

[usfgeology]

Originally Posted by Tom

Eye ball scan it -

21.0 = 0
21,1 = 1
21.2 = 2

23.0 = 10

24.0 = 20

If you need beaten length, add a point and a hlaf per length

Another thing I do is look at race today's length of shorter and use the best two first call positions.

A horse who led at two races gets a 2, etc.

I rank them by that number and the lowest first call time rating.
I go up to 5.5F on turf for this and do good at Toga.

I'm a big fan of simple analytical systems like this. More work than the average bear is willing to put in but easy enough for me to remember even after a few beverages...

This method is a screening tool to for highlighting the speed of speed. You've noted this works well at the Spa. Any other tracks you've noted success at, or maybe more importantly, turf where this method does not hold up?

[Partsnut]

Quoting my friend mikesal57

"Let's Cap It".
Here's a turf sprint for tomorrow's 13th race at MTH (Haskell Day). This is a reasonably tough race to handicap but aren't they all?

I will be using the old obsolete PaceAppraiser to make my selection. Randy Giles gave me permission to post his copyrighted application.

It would be interesting to see what others come up with and the method and/or software they are using to come up with their single pick selection.

Please see the attached file.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

Quoting my friend mikesal57

"Let's Cap It".
Here's a turf sprint for tomorrow's 13th race at MTH (Haskell Day). This is a reasonably tough race to handicap but aren't they all?

I will be using the old obsolete PaceAppraiser to make my selection. Randy Giles gave me permission to post his copyrighted application.

It would be interesting to see what others come up with and the method and/or software they are using to come up with their single pick selection.

Please see the attached file.

Thanks Bill...

Will join in when I get my files...

PS- Use your BetMix too.....

[mikesal57]

Bill...with no times in those PP's , it makes it hard for me

What does PF PVR SF mean?

[Partsnut]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Bill...with no times in those PP's , it makes it hard for me

What does PF PVR SF mean?

Mike,


PF = Pace Factor
PVR = Pace Velocity Rating
SF = Speed Factor - Example: 94/96 (The number on the left would be the Bris #). The one on the right would be the speed number adjusted to pace.


On the top of the page (Top Right) you will see the CSFR (Competitive Speed Figure Range) and the PPG (Pace Pressure Gauge).


These figures show where a horse is competitive and projects how the race should run and if a horses running style fits the shape of the race.


Time is not necessary here because the, pace figure, pace velocity, speed numbers and running style tells you whether a horse is competitive and fits in a given race.