Tiz the Law

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

need to have number of starters for any kind of context, an odds relationship as well.

Knock yourself out....

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

need to have number of starters for any kind of context, an odds relationship as well.

I don't think there is anything you'd find by adding those things that would make shippers being 23-38 look bad, do you?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

I don't think there is anything you'd find by adding those things that would make shippers being 23-38 look bad, do you?

If shippers are 95% of the field then I would say its not a great look, no?

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

If shippers are 95% of the field then I would say its not a great look, no?

Sure, but do you think they are? I would highly doubt that, just using some common sense. We also know there have been plenty of price winners.

I don't know if the 23 for 38 is accurate or what constituted a shipper. Was Battle of Midway, for example, considered a shipper since he last ran at Remington before the BC Dirt Mile or was he considered a local since he was SoCal trained? Arrogate, same thing?

But we know, for example, that in 2017 Bar of Gold, Good Magic, Caledonia Road, Forever Unbridled, and Gun Runner were not SoCal horses and based on the prices there is no way to make that look bad even if every horse in the field was a shipper.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

Sure, but do you think they are? I would highly doubt that, just using some common sense. We also know there have been plenty of price winners.

I don't know if the 23 for 38 is accurate or what constituted a shipper. Was Battle of Midway, for example, considered a shipper since he last ran at Remington before the BC Dirt Mile or was he considered a local since he was SoCal trained? Arrogate, same thing?

But we know, for example, that in 2017 Bar of Gold, Good Magic, Caledonia Road, Forever Unbridled, and Gun Runner were not SoCal horses and based on the prices there is no way to make that look bad even if every horse in the field was a shipper.

I agree, was just commenting that the stat on the surface with no context really wasnt very meaningful other than to say you dont have to run in socal the race prior to win a BC race.

Good point on the last race context, unknown really if that considers Arrogate a shipper.

For me it would be where there normal "home" is to be considered a local horse or a shipper.

So know I am really unsure of the "impact value" of 23 for 38.

If I get bored enough I will do the homework to review 2009-2018 socal BC's.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I agree, was just commenting that the stat on the surface with no context really wasnt very meaningful other than to say you dont have to run in socal the race prior to win a BC race.

Good point on the last race context, unknown really if that considers Arrogate a shipper.

For me it would be where there normal "home" is to be considered a local horse or a shipper.

So know I am really unsure of the "impact value" of 23 for 38.

If I get bored enough I will do the homework to review 2009-2018 socal BC's.

I'd skip the synthetic ones personally.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

I'd skip the synthetic ones personally.

good point

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by cj

Sure, but do you think they are? I would highly doubt that, just using some common sense. We also know there have been plenty of price winners.

I don't know if the 23 for 38 is accurate or what constituted a shipper. Was Battle of Midway, for example, considered a shipper since he last ran at Remington before the BC Dirt Mile or was he considered a local since he was SoCal trained? Arrogate, same thing?

But we know, for example, that in 2017 Bar of Gold, Good Magic, Caledonia Road, Forever Unbridled, and Gun Runner were not SoCal horses and based on the prices there is no way to make that look bad even if every horse in the field was a shipper.

FWIW:
I considered Arrogate/Battle of Midway as California horses when listing the numbers.
Can't remember the last year for synthetics at Santa Anita.........they haven't had a BC this decade with the artificial stuff.
The interesting year was 2012,California went 1 for 9 in dirt races @ Santa Anita........the only hometown winner was Beholder in the Juvy Filly race.
I've always felt in Championship events like the Breeders Cup that class always shows up.........put very little stock in home court advantage.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by taxicab

FWIW:
I considered Arrogate/Battle of Midway as California horses when listing the numbers.
Can't remember the last year for synthetics at Santa Anita.........they haven't had a BC this decade with the artificial stuff.
The interesting year was 2012,California went 1 for 9 in dirt races @ Santa Anita........the only hometown winner was Beholder in the Juvy Filly race.
I've always felt in Championship events like the Breeders Cup that class always shows up.........put very little stock in home court advantage.

agree

[classhandicapper]

The synthetic period should definitely be excluded, but like I said before, I recall a few BCs prior to that period where NY specifically sent some top contenders out there and they disappointed badly. I think the Arcangue year was one of them.

That and the general lack of shipping from NY to CA compared to CA to NY (I'm talking long term here) has been partly explained by people thinking it's tougher to go west to east. I've heard all kinds of excuses about that (weather, earthquakes spooking the horses etc..)

The other complicating factor is that the quality of racing is sometimes cyclical.

We've had periods where west coast horses in a few divisions were stronger and we've had periods where the west coast was very weak.

People talk about the Wood Memorial being weaker than it used to be, but I remember a period when people felt the SA Derby was the much weaker prep. None of it was probably based on much other than a random series of races that happened to come up stronger or weaker than average.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The synthetic period should definitely be excluded, but like I said before, I recall a few BCs prior to that period where NY specifically sent some top contenders out there and they disappointed badly. I think the Arcangue year was one of them.

That and the general lack of shipping from NY to CA compared to CA to NY (I'm talking long term here) has been partly explained by people thinking it's tougher to go west to east. I've heard all kinds of excuses about that (weather, earthquakes spooking the horses etc..)

The other complicating factor is that the quality of racing is sometimes cyclical.

We've had periods where west coast horses in a few divisions were stronger and we've had periods where the west coast was very weak.

People talk about the Wood Memorial being weaker than it used to be, but I remember a period when people felt the SA Derby was the much weaker prep. None of it was probably based on much other than a random series of races that happened to come up stronger or weaker than average.

If you look at the period when New York horses were stinking up the joint in California BC's, you will see that plenty of them also bombed in non-California BC's too. There was a period when New York's major divisional stakes were just replete with 5 horse fields of mediocre horses. They just rarely had the best horse in a division.

When a New York horse is good, they usually are able to duplicate their performance in California.

[dilanesp]

Tiz the Law is REALLY good ....

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

When a New York horse is good, they usually are able to duplicate their performance in California.

When any horse is REALLY good, they can duplicate their performance anywhere, on any track.

That is why I really liked the 3-surface (wins in GRADED Stakes) horses like Einstein, General Quarters, Lava Man, Monterrey Jazz, Mushka, Panty Raid, Sidney's Candy, Twirling Candy...

...and then you have tons of them who won on 3 surfaces but not all graded stakes like Colonel John, Tizaqeena, Brass Hat, Ball Four, Carriage Trail, Awesome Gem, etc.

[Sysonby]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Tiz the Law is REALLY good ....

Yes, that was a class move in the Holy Bull.

[lamboguy]

i thought Manny Franco gave this horse a great ride. i also don't think there is a better rider alive for that horse now.