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Old 08-06-2020, 06:21 PM   #271
the little guy
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I was wondering when someone was going to bring up Hong Kong. It's really all this thread was missing.
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Old 08-06-2020, 10:38 PM   #272
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To hell with all these opinions! Why not just face the facts?

So, all you lofty players who think this game (or industry) owes you something? Think again! Try humbling yourself to accept the fact that youíre an outsider playing an insiderís game. That statement should be accepted by any rationale mind. In spite of any skepticism, the connections will always function on multiple levels from knowing each and every aspect of a horseís condition to the money being wagered in an array of betting pools at various times during a typical betting cycle.

Why are so many concerned about what other players (that operate at different levels) might be doing? Maybe theyíve got the resources to play the game much more seriously in terms of gathering accurate information and acting on it accordingly with sufficient funding.

If you feel you canít compete with just guesswork based on feeble attempts to analyze the PP data or statistics, then by all means do yourself a favor and get out of the game. The industry doesnít care one way or the other. They certainly know and understand who has the most to lose or gain from their exploits and its certainly not an outsider looking to cash in once and while.
It's always hilarious that you think you're a secret special insider because you bet 6-horse exacta boxes on Hong Kong's 25% takeout.

And your second paragraph---it's what a whole bunch of us have repeatedly said in this thread---there are people with "sufficient funding" eating up a lot of profits in the pools. It's been the point of many posts, yet you think you're lecturing a bunch of fools who haven't caught on to this basic point. That's why you get so much pushback for your Hong Kong idiocy.
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Old 08-07-2020, 12:08 AM   #273
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It's always hilarious that you think you're a secret special insider because you bet 6-horse exacta boxes on Hong Kong's 25% takeout.

And your second paragraph---it's what a whole bunch of us have repeatedly said in this thread---there are people with "sufficient funding" eating up a lot of profits in the pools. It's been the point of many posts, yet you think you're lecturing a bunch of fools who haven't caught on to this basic point. That's why you get so much pushback for your Hong Kong idiocy.
No, you know whatís really ďhilariousĒ is so-called players like yourself who canít distinguish between a Quinella and an Exacta bet. Thatís particularly important when youíre playing a program like HK that ONLY offers the Quinella bet (and not the Exacta). In case youíre interested or wondering why itís such a lucrative play, the investment is only 1/2 the cost of the Exacta any way you look at it. Because the field sizes consistently average between 12 and 14 entries the payouts are equivalent to the typical Exacta. So why donít you try and explain why recognizing and seeking value isnít the MOST important part of this game. DUH!

BTW try putting words into your own mouth instead of someone elseís. Where did you ever come up with the interpretation that I was a ďsecret special insiderĒ? Iím as much outsider of this game as anyone. But I seem to be much more appreciative regarding the vast amounts of money being wagered by those (unlike you) who have vested interest in this game. I have no problem humbling myself to that reality when it becomes the difference between my personal profit and loss.

If you knew anything at all about the wagering on the HK races youíd bite your tongue when referring to potential profit losses due to heavy betting (last minute or not!).
So hereís a little exercise for you or anyone else that can grasp the concept:
If thereís 7 million dollars in the WIN pool (only) and there are 14 entries and letís say for shits and giggles (and to make the calculation easier) that every entry had the same amount bet on it. How much money would it take to drop the odds on any one entry even a full point? If you can figure that out you might to try it with a typical real time scenario when each of the 14 entries vary in odds from 2.5/1 to 85/1 and the 8th choice is at 20/1. With the same amount of money in the Win pool how much would it take to knock that choice down to 19/1? (Use whatever odds you would like for the other 11 runners.
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:38 AM   #274
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
There's a point at which the tracks might finally figure out they have a business model that might not be sustainable.

When enough of the day to day serious players and more casual inefficient players drop out, the computer players will primarily be competing against each other. The pools will then become so efficient some of them will start losing their edge and dipping into the red even with rebates. If a few whales drop out, maybe a light bulb will go off somewhere.
I think this is the endgame.

Look at how successful gaming enterprises work. Las Vegas DOES court whales. But they also find ways to do nice things for smaller customers, and they also try to prevent overt cheating and favoritism to the extent possible.

Racing at this point has too many tracks operating, and is thus too reliant on a group of players playing by a different set of rules. That is not sustainable long term.
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Old 08-07-2020, 12:49 PM   #275
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I think this is the endgame.

Look at how successful gaming enterprises work. Las Vegas DOES court whales. But they also find ways to do nice things for smaller customers, and they also try to prevent overt cheating and favoritism to the extent possible.

Racing at this point has too many tracks operating, and is thus too reliant on a group of players playing by a different set of rules. That is not sustainable long term.
At least the news has been good when it comes to the Fox show attracting new viewers and adding new account holders. I don't know how long that's going to last when the sign up bonuses plus a few extra thousand dollars are lost by those new players, but at least it beats a death spiral. There was an opening while all the other sports were inactive and some of the competition was also closed and some in the industry are making out well for now.
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:07 PM   #276
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todays 9th race at Del Mar

the daily double pool has the #8 THATS AMARE as a slight favorite. i suspect this horse will be favored in the win pool as well. yet the other pools, pick 3,4 and 5 have the #2 LETS GO WILD favorite
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Old 08-10-2020, 04:58 AM   #277
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Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
....If you knew anything at all about the wagering on the HK .....
Hong Kong horse racing. Can you shed some light on it?
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Old 08-10-2020, 08:31 AM   #278
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It's always hilarious that you think you're a secret special insider because you bet 6-horse exacta boxes on Hong Kong's 25% takeout.

And your second paragraph---it's what a whole bunch of us have repeatedly said in this thread---there are people with "sufficient funding" eating up a lot of profits in the pools. It's been the point of many posts, yet you think you're lecturing a bunch of fools who haven't caught on to this basic point. That's why you get so much pushback for your Hong Kong idiocy.
Plenty of late odds drops on winners in HK just like here
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Old 08-10-2020, 08:33 AM   #279
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Plenty of late odds drops on winners in HK just like here
isn't that where Benter and the Whales started?
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Old 08-10-2020, 09:05 AM   #280
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Quote:
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Plenty of late odds drops on winners in HK just like here
Exactly, but Nitro will just say he's such a genius he knows when those are coming (and of course by looking at other pools and probable payoffs, you CAN to some extent predict when they're coming---doesn't change their impact on potential profits though).
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Old 08-10-2020, 09:30 AM   #281
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Kong Kong got plenty of money in the pools. but to me that's all they got. the rebate in this country is no more than 2%. if you have an account with Mark Reed you can get more than 10%. you need a friend in Australia to have an account there these days.
the takeout is brutal, and there is no way you can handicap this with past performances and win.

the racing there is very similar to harness racing where horses run with cover. there are hardly any races where a horse goes gate to wire. when you watch horses making the final turn, you see one rider waiting for another one to swing out so that he can follow him around the turn and swing away from him down the lane. i have no idea how anyone can handicap that. but someone might know it ahead of time. i don't, so its not worth staying up at night to have fun losing at that place.

the way the racing is structured, it is an honor and not a right to own a horse. the trainers only are allowed to have 25 horses in their barn. if they don't maintain a high win percentage standard, they lose their license to train. owners don't pick the horses they buy, they are assigned. so the game there adds up to be an insiders game that i need no part of.

if someone can box 6 horses to bet an exacta and figure it out just by watching the betting boards, i tip my hat to them. i don't see it.
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Old 08-10-2020, 02:24 PM   #282
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Kong Kong got plenty of money in the pools. but to me that's all they got. the rebate in this country is no more than 2%. if you have an account with Mark Reed you can get more than 10%. you need a friend in Australia to have an account there these days.
the takeout is brutal, and there is no way you can handicap this with past performances and win.

the racing there is very similar to harness racing where horses run with cover. there are hardly any races where a horse goes gate to wire. when you watch horses making the final turn, you see one rider waiting for another one to swing out so that he can follow him around the turn and swing away from him down the lane. i have no idea how anyone can handicap that. but someone might know it ahead of time. i don't, so its not worth staying up at night to have fun losing at that place.

the way the racing is structured, it is an honor and not a right to own a horse. the trainers only are allowed to have 25 horses in their barn. if they don't maintain a high win percentage standard, they lose their license to train. owners don't pick the horses they buy, they are assigned. so the game there adds up to be an insiders game that i need no part of.

if someone can box 6 horses to bet an exacta and figure it out just by watching the betting boards, i tip my hat to them. i don't see it.
I've had minimal success handicapping there but there are two things I don't care for: two jockeys win 40% of the races and they run maidens against horses with 10 wins.
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Old 08-10-2020, 02:36 PM   #283
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I've had minimal success handicapping there but there are two things I don't care for: two jockeys win 40% of the races and they run maidens against horses with 10 wins.
very, very smart post. i didn't mention the 2 riders, but its good that someone else other than myself got that one figured out. no f--g way am i going to stay up in the middle of the night to try to figure out how some jockey is going to cheat me out of my cash by giving cover to the other guy.
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Old 08-10-2020, 03:16 PM   #284
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very, very smart post. i didn't mention the 2 riders, but its good that someone else other than myself got that one figured out. no f--g way am i going to stay up in the middle of the night to try to figure out how some jockey is going to cheat me out of my cash by giving cover to the other guy.
Had some random success during the Christmas time playing Hong Kong. But have given up playing the product. Like you said, 2 jockeys dominate the game. If you manage to figure out when someone else will win, you will get paid. Also too much late money, as in the last minute on horses that canít be explained. Like I say, ďToo many things there go bump in the night.Ē
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Old 08-10-2020, 03:24 PM   #285
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Hong Kong horse racing. Can you shed some light on it?
I certainly could, but as you can see thereís all sorts of resentment about my discussing the racing in Hong Kong around here. Thatís probably because over the last 5 years Iíve covered that topic numerous times on various threads on this forum. Unfortunately, many of the negative responses youíre seeing are coming from people who have never played there and donít have a clue as to what really goes on. As far as Iím concerned it offers the finest overall racing product on the planet.

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Plenty of late odds drops on winners in HK just like here
Of course there are both late dropping and rising odds, but the big difference is that because the size of a typical Win pool for any given race is the MILLIONS of dollars the odds are generally more stable.

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isn't that where Benter and the Whales started?
More or less thatís correct. After 5 years Benter took an estimated 150 Million in profit to his home in Pittsburgh. There were quite a few syndicates playing then as they are today. I finding it challenging and rewarding at times playing against them. See - "The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code"
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ight=Hong+Kong

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if someone can box 6 horses to bet an exacta and figure it out just by watching the betting boards, i tip my hat to them. i don't see it.
Again, I will reiterate there is NO Exacta betting in HK. You may not see the Value from that perspective, but how about recognizing real value when playing a Quinella instead. You must know the cost difference between the two. And who said anything about necessarily boxing all 6 selections?
You might get a better idea of why Iím so high on HK racing from just a few recent days posted live for racing at Sha Tin: You might also notice that it isnít always necessary to box all 6 entries. Using just each of the top 3 Keys with the others works just fine!

Sun July 12, 2020 Ė starting with post #812
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...G+KONG&page=55

Sun July 5, 2020 Ė starting with post #788
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...G+KONG&page=53

Sat June 27, 2020 Ė starting with post #767
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...G+KONG&page=52

If you don't like my methods of playing HK that's just fine!
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