Handicapping Turf Sprints

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

Mike,


PF = Pace Factor
PVR = Pace Velocity Rating
SF = Speed Factor - Example: 94/96 (The number on the left would be the Bris #). The one on the right would be the speed number adjusted to pace.


On the top of the page (Top Right) you will see the CSFR (Competitive Speed Figure Range) and the PPG (Pace Pressure Gauge).


These figures show where a horse is competitive and projects how the race should run and if a horses running style fits the shape of the race.


Time is not necessary here because the, pace figure, pace velocity, speed numbers and running style tells you whether a horse is competitive and fits in a given race.

thank you

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by castaway01

This is literally what I wrote a few days ago, except I didn't use the word "problematical".

What can I tell you. Great minds?

[Tom]

Hey Partsnut.....thanks for sharing!

Questoin - in the first horse, 92 F2 87/90

Does this mean the E2 pace was 92 and it was Fast 2 for the race?

Do you know how he modifies the speed figure? I'm thinking the 87 becaasem a 92 by adjsuting it fast by 2 lengths (the F2)?

Thanks,

Love those PPs.

[Partsnut]

Tom,


The 92 is the pace figure. This number was formulated from a set of numbers that Randy Giles developed. The The F2 says that this horse was up against a fast 2 pace. This horses running style is a closer and indeed did close in that race. For fast races you subtract from the pace figure. Example:Keeping in mind that par = 100 and the was PF=92 you subtract 2 from the 92 leaving you 90 which represents the 10 lengths this horse was behind at the 2nd call.
If this horse was an S4 you would add 4 to the PF totaling a 96 which would represent 4 length back at the 2nd call.

[Tom]

Parts,

Thanks.
I'm assuming you mean the multipliers he had in his book.
That makes sense.

[Partsnut]

Originally Posted by Tom

Parts,

Thanks.
I'm assuming you mean the multipliers he had in his book.
That makes sense.

Tom,


That is correct. I spoke with Randy yesterday and he mentioned that these multipliers have not changed very much over the past 10 years. I still have those numbers. Randy and I are good friends.
He is also contemplating making PaceAppraiser a stand alone program.
If he does,you can bet that I'm there.



I haven't used PaceAppraiser in years but decided to use it at MTH Today.

I was impressed with the results and may go back to using it full time again.
I had 5 winners, 2 place horses and 3 Show horses.
However, I had the winner in my top 2 picks 10 out of 14 races.
Now, all I have to do is qualify my betting odds and I'm good to go.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

Tom,


That is correct. I spoke with Randy yesterday and he mentioned that these multipliers have not changed very much over the past 10 years. I still have those numbers. Randy and I are good friends.
He is also contemplating making PaceAppraiser a stand alone program.
If he does,you can bet that I'm there.



I haven't used PaceAppraiser in years but decided to use it at MTH Today.

I was impressed with the results and may go back to using it full time again.
I had 5 winners, 2 place horses and 3 Show horses.
However, I had the winner in my top 2 picks 10 out of 14 races.
Now, all I have to do is qualify my betting odds and I'm good to go.

That's pretty good work. I think I'll reread his book. Nice.

[AMPHAR]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

Tom,


That is correct. I spoke with Randy yesterday and he mentioned that these multipliers have not changed very much over the past 10 years. I still have those numbers. Randy and I are good friends.
He is also contemplating making PaceAppraiser a stand alone program.
If he does,you can bet that I'm there.



I haven't used PaceAppraiser in years but decided to use it at MTH Today.

I was impressed with the results and may go back to using it full time again.
I had 5 winners, 2 place horses and 3 Show horses.
However, I had the winner in my top 2 picks 10 out of 14 races.
Now, all I have to do is qualify my betting odds and I'm good to go.

Just wondering. I landed on the 11 for this race and was worried about the 6.

I had the 11 as what I think Randy calls sneaky cat thief. Also like the fact of coming off a strong 5.5 race.

I had the 6 as the strongest SP horse.

I placed a daily double Authentic/. Obviously did not cash, but wondering if Sneaky Cat thief was right designation? Pre race analysis.

It looked like he was on the edge of Competitive speed figures. 28X0 sets up for a sneaky leader because of the 0. 11 had superior E1 and E2 figures.

What did you think about the 11?

[Partsnut]

Originally Posted by AMPHAR

Just wondering. I landed on the 11 for this race and was worried about the 6.

I had the 11 as what I think Randy calls sneaky cat thief. Also like the fact of coming off a strong 5.5 race.

I had the 6 as the strongest SP horse.

I placed a daily double Authentic/. Obviously did not cash, but wondering if Sneaky Cat thief was right designation? Pre race analysis.

It looked like he was on the edge of Competitive speed figures. 28X0 sets up for a sneaky leader because of the 0. 11 had superior E1 and E2 figures.

What did you think about the 11?

The (11) fit the race pace bias and had shown some back speed in his PP's but as of late did not have any competitive speed so I eliminated him as a contender.

[PaceAdvantage]

YouTube

[AMPHAR]

Originally Posted by Partsnut

The (11) fit the race pace bias and had shown some back speed in his PP's but as of late did not have any competitive speed so I eliminated him as a contender.

Cool. Thank you.

[kdavis7837]

I have been trying for the last few months to use Time form only, Think I am starting to get a handle on it.
One of my favorite is a Dirt sprinter switching to turf with a Breed rating of 85 or better and within the top 3 early pace rating according to spotlight race or appropriate paceline. For some reason early Dirt pace ratings seem to improve dramatically on the Turf for the first time, I dont pay a lot of attention to the dirt speed rating because its like they float along on the grass and seems to carry further, have cashed several times with these because 9 out 10 times they are going up in class, have no Data to support so please take it as such, just a personal experience

[CBYRacer]

Originally Posted by kdavis7837

I have been trying for the last few months to use Time form only, Think I am starting to get a handle on it.
One of my favorite is a Dirt sprinter switching to turf with a Breed rating of 85 or better and within the top 3 early pace rating according to spotlight race or appropriate paceline. For some reason early Dirt pace ratings seem to improve dramatically on the Turf for the first time, I dont pay a lot of attention to the dirt speed rating because its like they float along on the grass and seems to carry further, have cashed several times with these because 9 out 10 times they are going up in class, have no Data to support so please take it as such, just a personal experience

Thanks! This sounds promising and I'll take a look! Appreciate your idea.