The Haskell

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Really good point CJ. Makes me want to watch where both horses end up in their next start. Will they happen to end up in a "soft" spot?

This was a situation where the field was small, there were only 3-4 good horses, and you could make OK money just showing up.

There was probably nothing especially enticing on the schedule for them and a guaranteed 12.5k (with a chance for decent score for 3rd or 4th) was fine given you might finish off the board in a better spot anyway and get nothing.

Both aren't going to keep chasing the best horses. That would be insanity.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

The speeds that didn't go finished last and next to last. That is what happens much more often than not in my experience. If you are afraid of the other speed, you should probably enter a different race. It isn't like Authentic was a surprise entry.

maybe they were entered really as a favor to the track more than anything else, I know nothing about the connections of those horses to make a determination.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

maybe they were entered really as a favor to the track more than anything else, I know nothing about the connections of those horses to make a determination.

I certainly considered that going in, the 5 certainly had that look. But the 4 was trained by Hollendorfer so that is out, and the 6 is a Maryland guy so very unlikely.

[classhandicapper]

One thing for sure is that it's a handicapping dilemma if you know a race has a lot of speed in it but you don't know who is sending. You are going to be wrong a lot of the time. On the flip side, I have a tough time finding good prices on horses, but when I do it's often on a pace collapse I got right.

The even bigger problem are the the ones like Winifred J that everyone was complaining about Sunday.

I thought there was a lot of speed in that race, but she was the speed of the speed and had to go. She was rated. The race kind of collapsed anyway, but that's a case where you have to ask what they were thinking. If you were 2nd or 3rd speed and didn't want to duel Winifred J, that's the case I kind of understand. But if you have the fastest horse and she clearly wants the lead, you can't strangle and make her rank.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

One thing for sure is that it's a handicapping dilemma if you know a race has a lot of speed in it but you don't know who is sending. You are going to be wrong a lot of the time. On the flip side, I have a tough time finding good prices on horses, but when I do it's often on a pace collapse I got right.

The even bigger problem are the the ones like Winifred J that everyone was complaining about Sunday.

I thought there was a lot of speed in that race, but she was the speed of the speed and had to go. She was rated. The race kind of collapsed anyway, but that's a case where you have to ask what they were thinking. If you were 2nd or 3rd speed and didn't want to duel Winifred J, that's the case I kind of understand. But if you have the fastest horse and she clearly wants the lead, you can't strangle and make her rank.

I agree.



One of the most frustrating bets in sports, when you take action on a mid-range-long-shot sitting on the board at '7/1', who is maybe '10/1' on pure horse, but '3/1' if your rationalize her performance up to her 'A' race, as the speed-of-speeds, with the track bias favoring inside speed..., - and you don't even get a shot, because of maddening, mystifying tactics.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I agree.



One of the most frustrating bets in sports, when you take action on a mid-range-long-shot sitting on the board at '7/1', who is maybe '10/1' on pure horse, but '3/1' if your rationalize her performance up to her 'A' race, as the speed-of-speeds, with the track bias favoring inside speed..., - and you don't even get a shot, because of maddening, mystifying tactics.

That race on Sunday was hard to explain. He was choking a horse that had enough natural speed to clear without using him hard.

I think I've sort of settled on the view of a trainer I've spoken to on this. His view is that you want your horse settle into it's own comfortable stride on that day and wherever that places him on that day is where he should be.

You don't want to strangle a speed horse because you will burn off excess energy when the horse starts resisting restraint, fighting, or getting rank.

You don't want to use you horse hard to get the lead chasing faster horses because using him is burning off more excess energy than the position is gaining.

Exceptions might be large fields where you may have to use your horse a bit early to find a good spit or you'll wind up in a hopeless position or if there's a clear bias carrying horses even when they are used hard early.

Mostly I just want my horse to be in a comfortable stride. Hopefully he has enough natural cruising speed (to borrow a Baffert term) to be on the lead if that what he likes or in a good spot. If not, maybe he needs a drop in class.

[Tom]

More than anything else, this grabbing of speed horses has me betting less and less, and lately, not even bothering to download PPs. Couple this with late odds changes and I have to ask myself why bother even playing this game? No one is ever going to convince me there is not fixing going on. Just not Servis and Navarro.

[Tee]

Ancient Warrior entered today in the 12th @ Monmouth.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tee

Ancient Warrior entered today in the 12th @ Monmouth.

Showed some speed in a cheaper sprint.

[Tee]

Entered 8/28/20 @ Charles Town - Race 8 - Post Position 1.