Horses coming off a break xxx

[Ray2000]

Un-expected results when looking at horses who made a break in their previous start.
I thought they would be driven easy or safely, to avoid having to re-qualify. Not so

Last race broke			
Starts	Wins	Win%	ROI
2394	359	15.0%	0.88

No break
156244	20742	13.3%	0.74

Win%'s are significantly different (p=0.014)
ROI's on 359 returns is iffy,(p=.057)

Try it out on #2 Miss Ruby-3/1 w/ Allard (Pokie Race 10)
Would be a heavy favorite unless that last race gate-break drives $ away.

Bonus longshot at Pokie Race 11

#9 Er Monica-20/1

Coming from Michigan should be a gazillion to 1....
Does have a 1:52-4 at Woodbine this year?????

[sharkey11]

well that is very intresting first thing i look for is a break of stride in one of the last 2 recent races then that horse becomes a toss . i dont seem to rember many coming in to beat me . but i wont argue with your database . as always great stuff ray

[EdZone]

According to Ray's databse, I'm going with:-
Pocono
R10 /
R11 Ex Box