No real PROOF of PAST POSTING!

[green80]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Have to agree and believe that those teams cost you around 1 to 3% in your ROI.

How can you figure what they are costing us?

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by green80

How can you figure what they are costing us?

It is not exact, but there is no doubt that they affect you in two ways. First the cost that is passed on to each player is in the rebates. All of us pay a higher take out so the tracks can afford to rebate and "comp" the "elite" customer. The second way they cost you is in your average win mutual. Every player has had a horse dropped in odds, and some of those drops are large. This affects they average player in his average win mutual. I personally think the cost to average player is probably higher, but have not tracked it long enough to say a exact number.

[CNS]

The most renowned of the computerized players told me he figured over the long haul it cost other players about two percent to have him in the pool because of depressed win prices.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by jay68802

It is not exact, but there is no doubt that they affect you in two ways. First the cost that is passed on to each player is in the rebates. All of us pay a higher take out so the tracks can afford to rebate and "comp" the "elite" customer. The second way they cost you is in your average win mutual. Every player has had a horse dropped in odds, and some of those drops are large. This affects they average player in his average win mutual. I personally think the cost to average player is probably higher, but have not tracked it long enough to say a exact number.

But when one horse gets hammered down, all others go up in price. So, shouldn't we benefit when they are wrong? Shouldn't it even out unless they are betting down winners at a much higher rate of success than the public?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by CNS

The most renowned of the computerized players told me he figured over the long haul it cost other players about two percent to have him in the pool because of depressed win prices.

is it just the one guy that is nailing us for 2% and other sharpies get us for more than that?
my good buddy Gus seems to think there is some past posting going on that could not only be getting us but the CRW as well! good heavens, if the racing industry does not want to protect us idiots, they need to insulate the CRW because they make up such a large chunk of the handle. the CRW loses some of their profits to after the bell players too!

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by CNS

The most renowned of the computerized players told me he figured over the long haul it cost other players about two percent to have him in the pool because of depressed win prices.

Seriously, there's a Renowned horse player? Pittsburgh Phil? Benter?(edit): If it is Benter, he's betting into pools that are twenty times the size of typical US pools.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

But when one horse gets hammered down, all others go up in price. So, shouldn't we benefit when they are wrong? Shouldn't it even out unless they are betting down winners at a much higher rate of success than the public?

It would seem that way, wouldn't it? But it really does not happen like that. When I was tracking this, I basically looked at it as three different pools. The pools were when the first horse is loaded into the gate, the pool that happened during the loading of the gate, and the final win pool that we all see. I will use a example that is one of the best I have.

Gate:.....1.....2.........3.........4.........5... .....6.......7
Odds:....S....9/1......5/1......7/1.....25/1....4/5....23/1
%.........0....9.69...16.07...11.58...2.26...54.69 ...4.1

Load:.....1......2..........3.......4..........5.. ......6.........7
Odds:....S.....5/2.......2/1...18/1......6/1......6/1....11/1
%.........0....27.83...30.08...5.24...13.33...15.6 1...7.91

Final:.....1.......2.........3.........4........5. ........6........7
Odds:....S......6/1......4/1......9/1....15/1.....6/5....19/1
%.........0....13.85...19.29...10.12...6.05...45.7 1...4.98

You can see what is happening, the odds seem to get closer to a central line. The odds drop on all but 2 runners. The affect is that the value is spread more evenly among the horses. This is what the teams want. They proportion their bets so that their risk is spread out and thus the chances of them loosing is reduced. And this is not only in the win pool. This happens in the exacta and tri pools also. They do not look at this as one race, they are looking at it as a continuing, endless bet. They are not trying to make a bunch of money on 1 race. They are content with hovering around the break even point until the public makes a big mistake. Add in the rebates and the other perks and you can see how much of a advantage they have.

Figure your all of your bets with a take out that is between 6 and 10 percent lower. See what your ROI is then. The difference is the "tax" you pay so that the tracks can get these "elite" customers to bet in their pools.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by jay68802

It would seem that way, wouldn't it? But it really does not happen like that. When I was tracking this, I basically looked at it as three different pools. The pools were when the first horse is loaded into the gate, the pool that happened during the loading of the gate, and the final win pool that we all see. I will use a example that is one of the best I have.

Gate:.....1.....2.........3.........4.........5... .....6.......7
Odds:....S....9/1......5/1......7/1.....25/1....4/5....23/1
%.........0....9.69...16.07...11.58...2.26...54.69 ...4.1

Load:.....1......2..........3.......4..........5.. ......6.........7
Odds:....S.....5/2.......2/1...18/1......6/1......6/1....11/1
%.........0....27.83...30.08...5.24...13.33...15.6 1...7.91

Final:.....1.......2.........3.........4........5. ........6........7
Odds:....S......6/1......4/1......9/1....15/1.....6/5....19/1
%.........0....13.85...19.29...10.12...6.05...45.7 1...4.98

You can see what is happening, the odds seem to get closer to a central line. The odds drop on all but 2 runners. The affect is that the value is spread more evenly among the horses. This is what the teams want. They proportion their bets so that their risk is spread out and thus the chances of them loosing is reduced. And this is not only in the win pool. This happens in the exacta and tri pools also. They do not look at this as one race, they are looking at it as a continuing, endless bet. They are not trying to make a bunch of money on 1 race. They are content with hovering around the break even point until the public makes a big mistake. Add in the rebates and the other perks and you can see how much of a advantage they have.

Figure your all of your bets with a take out that is between 6 and 10 percent lower. See what your ROI is then. The difference is the "tax" you pay so that the tracks can get these "elite" customers to bet in their pools.

This makes no sense to me. The example nor the explanation.

Very simply put. When ONE horse is overbet on the final click of the toteboard, by the very nature of parimutuel betting, all other horse will rise in price. It's a math problem. Nothing unique about that.

If horse #1 is 3-1 when they load, and on the final click drops to 2-5. All other runners are going to rise in price. Would you agree that is true?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

This makes no sense to me. The example nor the explanation.

Makes sense to me.

Who says one horse gets pounded each and every time? Sure, one horse is bound to take more money than all the others, but it's not like only ONE horse goes down in odds while all the others go up each and every race.

From what I've heard, jay's explanation is pretty spot on.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Makes sense to me.

Who says one horse gets pounded each and every time? Sure, one horse is bound to take more money than all the others, but it's not like only ONE horse goes down in odds while all the others go up each and every race.

From what I've heard, jay's explanation is pretty spot on.

Let me simplify:

Imagine you had a 6 horse field. At the last click, #1 gets 50% of the total late money in the win hole and the other 5 runners each get 10%. In this example, if you and I were betting someone other than the #1, we'd be happy since our odds will rise. Correct?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Let me simplify:

Imagine you had a 6 horse field. At the last click, #1 gets 50% of the total late money in the win hole and the other 5 runners each get 10%. In this example, if you and I were betting someone other than the #1, we'd be happy since our odds will rise. Correct?

Does this kind of scenario happen on a regular basis at tracks outside of Sunland?

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

This makes no sense to me. The example nor the explanation.

Very simply put. When ONE horse is overbet on the final click of the toteboard, by the very nature of parimutuel betting, all other horse will rise in price. It's a math problem. Nothing unique about that.

If horse #1 is 3-1 when they load, and on the final click drops to 2-5. All other runners are going to rise in price. Would you agree that is true?

This is what I am understanding you are describing. Understand that to make this work, I am going to use a gate pool size of $100,000. The last dump is going to be $40,000. The final pool is going to be $140,000. The 1 is the horse that is going to be hit in the last dump.

Gate:......1..........2.........3.........4....... ..5........6
Odds:....3/1.......8/5......8-1......5/1.....19/1...26/1
%:.......25.00...38.46...11.11...16.67...5.00...3. 77....Total 100.00%


Final:.......1..........2.........3........4...... ..5........6
Odds:.....3/5.......6/1......7-1.....11/1....99/1...99/1
%:........62.50...14.29...12.50....8.71...1.00...1 .00...Total 100.00%

You can change the odds any way you want on the other 5 horse's it does not matter as long as the odds % adds up to 100%.

Is this what you are saying? Correct me if I am wrong.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by jay68802

This is what I am understanding you are describing. Understand that to make this work, I am going to use a gate pool size of $100,000. The last dump is going to be $40,000. The final pool is going to be $140,000. The 1 is the horse that is going to be hit in the last dump.

Gate:......1..........2.........3.........4....... ..5........6
Odds:....3/1.......8/5......8-1......5/1.....19/1...26/1
%:.......25.00...38.46...11.11...16.67...5.00...3. 77....Total 100.00%


Final:.......1..........2.........3........4...... ..5........6
Odds:.....3/5.......6/1......7-1.....11/1....99/1...99/1
%:........62.50...14.29...12.50....8.71...1.00...1 .00...Total 100.00%

You can change the odds any way you want on the other 5 horse's it does not matter as long as the odds % adds up to 100%.

Is this what you are saying? Correct me if I am wrong.

Gate:......1..........2.........3.........4....... ..5........6
Odds:....3/1.......8/5......8-1......5/1.....19/1...26/1
%:.......25.00...38.46...11.11...16.67...5.00...3. 77....Total 100.00%


Final:.......1..........2.........3........4...... ..5........6
Odds:.....3/5.......5/1......9-1.....11/1....99/1...99/1
%:........62.50...16.54...10.0....8.71...1.00...1 .00...Total 100.00%

Small mistake in this example all of the horses have gone up in odds. just moved the 2 and the 3 so it fits what I think you are describing.

[Denny]

Did anyone track Aqueduct last Saturday?

There was a horse that won the Bridgetown feature, Race 8.
Name was Black Stetson.

Just from memory, didn't write any thing down.

Parx shipper is 15-1 ML

Opened a little higher, around 16 or 17

Drifted up to 29-1 close to post time

Horses are loaded, gate opens he's 19-1 first time odds are shown on screen.

(breaks 5th, but, is hustled to lead)

Wins at 18-1.

Can anyone else verify or provide more.

[Valuist]

Without going thru all 130 previous posts, didn't Mike Maloney provide some examples of past posting? And outright fraud? Have we forgotten the 2002 Breeders Cup Pic 6?

Having said that, I don't believe it is common. Probably very uncommon. But those who think it has never happened are as wrong as those who think it happens all the time.

And even if NOTHING is wrong that's going on, the perception of the sharp late odds changes does look bad. Maybe if the machines were to lock a full minute before the gates opened it might help. Everyone would have to adjust.

I'm just trying to imagine NFL bettors having a bet ticket and having to wait until the kickoff to know what price they got.