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Old 04-08-2018, 11:58 AM   #1
sbcaris
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Beyer figs

Anyone know the Beyer figs for the 3 major prep winners Saturday?
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Old 04-08-2018, 12:02 PM   #2
rstp354
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Saturday Beyers

Vino Rosso 98

Good Magic 95

Justify 107
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Old 04-08-2018, 12:13 PM   #3
sbcaris
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beyers

Rstp 354: Thanks for the information.
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Old 04-08-2018, 01:19 PM   #4
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SA Derby 1:49.72
Wood Memorial 1:49.79
So a slow playing SA is as slow as Aqu after a winter type weather?
Seems impossible to believe and Justify was loose on an uncontested lead
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Old 04-08-2018, 02:13 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
SA Derby 1:49.72
Wood Memorial 1:49.79
So a slow playing SA is as slow as Aqu after a winter type weather?
Seems impossible to believe and Justify was loose on an uncontested lead
This is why I'm careful taking speed figures hook, line, and sinker. I recall scratching my head at the 108 BSF Materiality got in one of the slowest Florida Derby renewals in history. The horse didn't so squat thereafter.

For whatever reason, horses crossing the line in the Santa Anita Derby in 1:48 or less have a high impact value for the Kentucky Derby win pool while horses crossing the line in more than that time traditionally have not fared as well. We shall see if that angle holds up this year. In contrast, horses running sub 38 final 3/8th miles in final prep tend to win about 7 in 10 Kentucky Derby renewals. There are not many of those this year so I will cautiously respect the top two from the Santa Anita.
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Old 04-13-2018, 08:40 AM   #6
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The beyer numbers are ALOT less mathematical equation and ALOT more subjective opinion than you might think .

I remember just hearing one story from Andy Beyer that really caught my attention. He didn’t give a specific name for the horse or what track this happened at but the impression was given it was just a everyday average type of race nothing special about it.

Anyways horse A wins the race and is given a 72 beyer. Than a few races later at a similar distance horse B runs second in a slower time and gets a 90 beyer. He says he couldn’t figure out how it happened so he just completely tossed the 72 beyer out the window for horse A and pulled the 92 out of the air and gave that to horse A instead because he said it was just common sense that horse A should have a higher beyer than horse B. He said stuff like that happens all the time when making beyer numbers.

I am not saying beyer numbers are useless but for me they are just one of many pieces to the puzzle and personally I think that beyer numbers are far more helpful the cheaper the race is. In a 3200 claimer at Will Rogers Downs I am going to give much more weight to the beyer numbers than I will when handicapping the Kentucky Derby.

Watching race replays if I have the time is for me the single biggest handicapping tool.
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Old 04-13-2018, 09:28 AM   #7
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Speed figures are like weather forecast models. In general, they are not too far off the mark in the near term but occasionally are way off.

One problem with SA that day is there was only one other dirt route that day and it was the Oaks. Have fun putting together figures using comps from a stakes restricted to fillies and a couple sprints. The less data going into your model, the less accurate it is likely to be. While I do think SA is running a little slower this year I see Unique Bella ran a 6F fraction in 1:10.4 at the track this year and won the race. That was two seconds faster than Justify's plodding to the pole. Maybe he's just playing like American Pharoah did in the rebel but I doubt it against a horse like Bolt.

Further, Brisnet gave trounced Instilled Regard a 102 figure. He finished 11 lengths back in the 19th slowest Santa Anita Derby in history and achieved the same figure as American Pharoah's 11th fastest Arkansas Derby in history. Additionally, AP appeared to gear down toward the finish. I'm sorry, but Instilled Regard did not run even remotely as good as American Pharoah. As such, I'm completely tossing most speed figures from the race. Equibase scored the finish as par which makes the most sense to me. Like I said before, par in the Santa Anita is often still plenty good to contend in Kentucky but perhaps sets more realistic expectations.
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Old 04-13-2018, 10:25 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
Speed figures are like weather forecast models. In general, they are not too far off the mark in the near term but occasionally are way off.

One problem with SA that day is there was only one other dirt route that day and it was the Oaks. Have fun putting together figures using comps from a stakes restricted to fillies and a couple sprints. The less data going into your model, the less accurate it is likely to be. While I do think SA is running a little slower this year I see Unique Bella ran a 6F fraction in 1:10.4 at the track this year and won the race. That was two seconds faster than Justify's plodding to the pole. Maybe he's just playing like American Pharoah did in the rebel but I doubt it against a horse like Bolt.

Further, Brisnet gave trounced Instilled Regard a 102 figure. He finished 11 lengths back in the 19th slowest Santa Anita Derby in history and achieved the same figure as American Pharoah's 11th fastest Arkansas Derby in history. Additionally, AP appeared to gear down toward the finish. I'm sorry, but Instilled Regard did not run even remotely as good as American Pharoah. As such, I'm completely tossing most speed figures from the race. Equibase scored the finish as par which makes the most sense to me. Like I said before, par in the Santa Anita is often still plenty good to contend in Kentucky but perhaps sets more realistic expectations.
Yeah I think relying heavily on numbers to handicap this years derby regardless of which set you decide to use ( beyers, brisnet or Equibase etc. ) is a big mistake.

Justify gets a 107 beyer for winning a slow Santa Anita derby where he got a easy pace scenario to work with and Good Magic gets a 95 beyer after a solid win in the Bluegrass and having to navigate a tough outside post.

Jerry Bailey ( one of the greatest jockeys ever and respected long time race analyst ) and Randy Moss and Laffit Pincay lll ( both also highly respected race analysts ) said Good Magic’s win in the Bluegrass was solid and showed he’s back in top form and they said Justify performance in the SA derby left them wondering if Baffert will even run Justify in the KY Derby, yet going off Beyer numbers you would have thought Justify ran the superior race.

Last edited by LoneF; 04-13-2018 at 10:26 AM.
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Old 04-13-2018, 10:53 AM   #9
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Regarding Justify I think the interpretations being thrown about are as wrong as many think his figure is. To me beating a horse like Bolt Doro who was likely to take a step forward off what I think was one of the best preps shorter than 9f in the San Felipe(the other being Audible's Holy Bull) makes the figure accurate. My route rating of that race was a 207. Good Magic's BC Juvenile was 199 by comparison. Bolt Doro had an incredible 218 in the Frontrunner and I think bounced off that one as a 2yo. 220 is the derby par and the closest horse to hit that this year was Flameaway in the SF Davis with a 209. I think he backed that up last Saturday and because of that I think Good Magic also improved off his 199. If Bolt Doro also improved and Justify beat him I think this puts both up near the derby par. I think both are better than the latter two. Anyway my interpretation of Bolt Doro's form cycle is what makes me believe in Justify.
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Old 04-13-2018, 11:03 AM   #10
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Yeah I think relying heavily on numbers to handicap this years derby regardless of which set you decide to use ( beyers, brisnet or Equibase etc. ) is a big mistake.

Justify gets a 107 beyer for winning a slow Santa Anita derby where he got a easy pace scenario to work with and Good Magic gets a 95 beyer after a solid win in the Bluegrass and having to navigate a tough outside post.

Jerry Bailey ( one of the greatest jockeys ever and respected long time race analyst ) and Randy Moss and Laffit Pincay lll ( both also highly respected race analysts ) said Good Magic’s win in the Bluegrass was solid and showed he’s back in top form and they said Justify performance in the SA derby left them wondering if Baffert will even run Justify in the KY Derby, yet going off Beyer numbers you would have thought Justify ran the superior race.
Good Magic had an easy trip too. Stalking 2 dueling leaders through solid fractions and picking up the pieces was gravy train. That he had a hard time losing Flameaway makes me think less of him.
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Old 04-13-2018, 11:41 AM   #11
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I was a Phase III Sartinista in the early 90s and I confess the Sartin thinking made me a much better handicapper. And, to add, I still use most of the lessons I learned to this day.

One of the nuggets from Sartin pertains to track variants and adjustments. Without going through it all, I'll just say this... my opinion only, of course.

-- Figure makers of all stripes are capable of making fast horses and sharp efforts 'slow' and make slow horses 'fast' by the way they 'adjust' for the track variant.

-- And yes, tracks do run faster or slower at times, but rarely by the sharp variance we are told by the popular fig makers.

-- Weather, slop, mud, drying out, etc. causes changes in the track speed surface, and I find this to be a more accurate way to determine such a change in the daily variant.

-- Track speed, today's race make-up and current form of true contenders will make for a more accurate variant than will par times or projections, imo.

Yes, the Santa Anita track may have played a bit slower than normal on Saturday but a talented improving horse such as Justify should have galloped home faster than he did as a result, especially since he had an uncontested early advantage. He didn't do such a thing.

Justify and Bolt d'oro may actually be slow horses, heaven forbid --ha-- and not the victims of a slow racetrack.
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Old 04-13-2018, 11:50 AM   #12
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If you use the WInner's Books from DRF, you can see what race Beyer breaks out for whatever reason. I look at them every week and note races that are "suspicious" for some unknown reason. When it comes time to use that race, I know to be cautious with it.

Example - Oaklawn is very tight - few changes to the figs. First time seldom gets revised.

NYRA, lots of revisions.

One thing for certain - at any track, raw times mean zero.
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Old 04-13-2018, 01:13 PM   #13
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Yes, the Santa Anita track may have played a bit slower than normal on Saturday but a talented improving horse such as Justify should have galloped home faster than he did as a result, especially since he had an uncontested early advantage. He didn't do such a thing.

Justify and Bolt d'oro may actually be slow horses, heaven forbid --ha-- and not the victims of a slow racetrack.
While I think many figures for the race are grossly inflated, Justify and Bolt did haul oats in the final 3/8th... as they should after running an arguably pedestrian first six panels. I'll will give them that much. Visually, Bolt did not look as sharp to me as he was in the San Felipe. The Equibase comp backs up that observation.

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One thing for certain - at any track, raw times mean zero.
I hear you but the raw time is the one unmodified speed figure. It's a check on the computed figures. When Vino Rosso pulls a 102 Brisnet figure while winning the Wood in a fast time by recent standards and in nearly identical raw time to Justify's historically slow Santa Anita... while Instilled Regard was 11 lengths back pulling the same 102 (and the same as American Pharoah's Ark Derby) simply does not logically compute.

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Old 04-13-2018, 01:17 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Afleet View Post
SA Derby 1:49.72
Wood Memorial 1:49.79
So a slow playing SA is as slow as Aqu after a winter type weather?
Seems impossible to believe and Justify was loose on an uncontested lead
Aqueduct has certainly sped up a LOT in recent weeks. It was one of the slowest tracks I've ever seen over the winter. Meanwhile, Santa Anita has become a much slower surface, not just recently but for the past year.

It does go to show just how much the track superintendent can change a racetrack. If the Wood were run over the surface in place a month ago, they'd have run about FIVE SECONDS slower.
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Old 04-13-2018, 01:19 PM   #15
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One problem with SA that day is there was only one other dirt route that day and it was the Oaks.
There were three.

As I've mentioned, Santa Anita has been much slower the past year than it usually is. Historical comparisons using raw times will be pretty useless IMO.

Last edited by cj; 04-13-2018 at 01:23 PM.
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