No Parole

[cj]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I wasn't offended as all. In fact my first response was " That's a fair point "

Sure, but that wasn't your whole post. You specifically said I was nitpicking you right after saying it was a fair point. Kind of contradictory, don't you think?

In the end it doesn't matter, I'll let you have the last word. My work is done here.

[classhandicapper]

000000000000000000000000.1%

Sorry guys, but I couldn't help myself. We need to lighten this one up.

[CaptainObvious]

Originally Posted by Big Peps

It was a 5 horse race where any horse could have won. I used all button in all horizontals. Not inconceivable he just like another horse. just a guy doing his job. This is one of the great conspiracy theories I have seen recently and that is saying something.

Let' score out on a 3-1 where any of the other horses could have won? Did Andy and Tom tell the other horses not to contest No Parole on the lead. You give a speed horse the lead and don't contest them and they usually win.

What happens is no other rider/ Trainer wants to be that guy. the horse that duels speed and fades and looks kind of dumb for going 44 flat for the 1/2. seen and lived it 100 times.

If you watch the replay you’ll see the slam the coming out of the gate, all but eliminating him on a day where front end speed played.

The is a fast horse and looked good, but not having the eyeball him at anytime was huge. I’ll be looking to play against him next out if he catches a deep field.

[classhandicapper]

I'm breaking the red board rules here, but I'll be happy to provide the data I used to support what I am saying if necessary. I had the race that No Parole was coming out of as loaded with speed. He sprinted clear of all of them rather easily and those that chased him or got outrun all finished up the track.

I've been saying for a long time that when a race is loaded with speed and one horse outruns all the others easily, those horses are usually a LOT faster early than their pace figures suggest.

From the rail, it was almost certain he was going to "go". On top of that he just had his fastest lifetime work coming to the race.

I thought it was close to a mortal lock that No Parole was going to be loose. The only question was getting 7F against that field. But IMO, there wasn't much doubt that absent a bad start or idiotic ride he was going to be loose.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm breaking the red board rules here, but I'll be happy to provide the data I used to support what I am saying if necessary. I had the race that No Parole was coming out of as loaded with speed. He sprinted clear of all of them rather easily and those that chased him or got outrun all finished up the track.

I've been saying for a long time that when a race is loaded with speed and one horse outruns all the others easily, those horses are usually a LOT faster early than their pace figures suggest.

From the rail, it was almost certain he was going to "go". On top of that he just had his fastest lifetime work coming to the race.

I thought it was close to a mortal lock that No Parole was going to be loose. The only question was getting 7F against that field. But IMO, there wasn't much doubt that absent a bad start or idiotic ride he was going to be loose.

I think we all have a tendency (I know I do) to overlook some luck that goes our way while finding every shred of luck that goes against us. I'm trying hard to work on that part of my game.

At the very least, his trip was made easier when the 4 was slammed into at the start. Maybe he outruns him anyway, but it isn't the given you make it seem.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I think we all have a tendency (I know I do) to overlook some luck that goes our way while finding every shred of luck that goes against us. I'm trying hard to work on that part of my game.

At the very least, his trip was made easier when the 4 was slammed into at the start. Maybe he outruns him anyway, but it isn't the given you make it seem.

I watched the race and head on and don't think it mattered. I had the #4 as the second fastest speed in the race, but not close to the #1. They weren't in the same category. IMO, if anything helped the #1 win, it was the possibility that the track was helping carry speed.

I look way more at running styles and who is outrunning who than the fractions. I had him as the only "pure speed" and very fast given that last race where he easily outran other speeds. So to me, he was very likely to go and get clear.

That's what makes this game. Different data and different opinions.

[Waquoit]

I think Andy sometimes doesn't know where the line is when he criticizes a colleague on air. But I wouldn't entertain the idea for one second that he would pick a horse to win that wasn't his best pick. I don't think he would be able to do it physically.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I watched the race and head on and don't think it mattered. I had the #4 as the second fastest speed in the race, but not close to the #1. They weren't in the same category. IMO, if anything helped the #1 win, it was the possibility that the track was helping carry speed.

I look way more at running styles and who is outrunning who than the fractions. I had him as the only "pure speed" and very fast given that last race where he easily outran other speeds. So to me, he was very likely to go and get clear.

That's what makes this game. Different data and different opinions.

My point was results can sway our opinions of what happened. Echo Town is not faster, even though our Pace Projector showed it that way. I didn't think it going in and certainly not coming out. But I thought he'd be able to pressure him at some point early on the turn latest. I think the break took away that chance and made a very possible result almost automatic.

I'm in no way saying it wasn't a good bet. It certainly was as he may very well have won regardless.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

My point was results can sway our opinions of what happened. .

I try to be sensitive to that also.

It has crossed my mind that the only reason the horse won was because Belmont may have been a bit kind to speed that day and I did NOT consider that at the time. Had it been 7F on a different surface we may not be having this conversation. I felt comfortable redboarding it because I can post all the data I used to project him as loose in the race. It's clear and consistent with the stuff I always say I use.

Plus, I reboarded my loss on the Belmont on another thread.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I try to be sensitive to that also.

It has crossed my mind that the only reason the horse won was because Belmont may have been a bit kind to speed that day and I did NOT consider that at the time. Had it been 7F on a different surface we may not be having this conversation. I felt comfortable redboarding it because I can post all the data I used to project him as loose in the race. It's clear and consistent with the stuff I always say I use.

Plus, I reboarded my loss on the Belmont on another thread.

Oh I don't care about that part. I just thought it was something worth discussing because it can be a weakness of mine.

We do have the track coded in red today. I'm not sure I agree, but speed certainly didn't hurt at the least.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Oh I don't care about that part. I just thought it was something worth discussing because it can be a weakness of mine.

We do have the track coded in red today. I'm not sure I agree, but speed certainly didn't hurt at the least.

I saw that dark red.

It's not clear to me what was going on.

I have two automated bias ratings. One focuses on just the horses on the lead and pressing very close and other the looks at the overall race flows. The overall flows came up as "Honest", but my other rating came up as "S" (favoring speed). I hate when they conflict. But my notes say exactly what I observed and think at this point in time.

Dirt - S? (front runners probably had an advantage; but overall flows were honest; follow up.

In my actual betting I used Tap It To Win in the Belmont worried the track would carry him to the exacta. My value play was Pneumatic who I thought could get good position and had run against the track a little in his last. He was wide, but otherwise disappointing. Maybe he doesn't want to go that far.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I saw that dark red.

It's not clear to me what was going on.

I have two automated bias ratings. One focuses on just the horses on the lead and pressing very close and other the looks at the overall race flows. The overall flows came up as "Honest", but my other rating came up as "S" (favoring speed). I hate when they conflict. But my notes say exactly what I observed and think at this point in time.

Dirt - S? (front runners probably had an advantage; but overall flows were honest; follow up.

In my actual betting I used Tap It To Win in the Belmont worried the track would carry him to the exacta. My value play was Pneumatic who I thought could get good position and had run against the track a little in his last. He was wide, but otherwise disappointing. Maybe he doesn't want to go that far.

The other thing is the track was changing throughout the day, getting faster. So it is hard to say it was the same track all along. I hate making those calls but it was pretty obvious on my worksheet. I've since seen Beyer and Thorograph made the same exact call.

[CaptainObvious]

Originally Posted by CaptainObvious

If you watch the replay you’ll see the slam the coming out of the gate, all but eliminating him on a day where front end speed played.

The is a fast horse and looked good, but not having the eyeball him at anytime was huge. I’ll be looking to play against him next out if he catches a deep field.

Today was that day.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by cj

The other thing is the track was changing throughout the day, getting faster. So it is hard to say it was the same track all along. I hate making those calls but it was pretty obvious on my worksheet. I've since seen Beyer and Thorograph made the same exact call.

I only look at the big races but it seemed about the same thru the day . A little speed favoring with a combination of no pace in the two turn races. At least the HAllen Jerkens had some contention. In the Personal Ensign and Whitney , Both Vexatious and Improbable had the same trip. Stalk a pedestrian pace on a target that’s gonna throw in the towel at some point. Bisou ran fine but it’s tough to reel in good horses when races go this way. The Whitney was even worse with the fave getting a bad start. Other than the third quarter I’m pretty sure they are going just about 25 a quarter in a grade 1 race. The real running starts so late ..... it’s over. Improbable and By My Standards are waltzing behind Mr Buff knowing he’ll probably come back. Positions never changed other than Toms closing a bit which shows he’s pretty good in defeat. But the guys are right on the NYRA channel. You have to guess if these guys are gonna push the pace. Both races at 1 1/8 were pretty much merry go rounds today. Part of it is the track but c’mon these jocks really don’t press unless they really get caught up in it. On a dirt track the closers really have little chance for a win spot in those deals. When Tom misses the break..... that race was larceny. If the track is getting faster as the day goes on .... like you are saying..... look at that race again . That’s makes the pace of it even worse.

[classhandicapper]

He was loose again.

The difference was that it was a much bigger field. That tends to force a faster pace because more horses are trying to get good position. Plus, they knew they had to push him a little harder because of what he did the last time. But I think the biggest difference was that last time the track was kind to speed horses. That helped him stretch his superior speed to 7F. Yesterday (pending review) the track was more honest. Between those two things and him probably not running as well anyway (he was done well before 6F), he finished up the track.

I needed Shoplifted to get 2nd for a homerun.